Determining an optimal pattern for the Prediction of potato and onion consumption in Iran

Year 2015, Volume: 36 Issue: 3, 3703 - 3710, 13.05.2015

Ahmad Fattahı Ardaknı

Abstract

Abstract. Given the importance of agriculture in the economy and the increasing role of potato and onion in the diet, this paper predicts the consumption of these products using a statistical model. Therefore, based on single and multi-variable models, data from 1970-2013 was applied to predict potato consumption using double exponential adjustment model and ARIMA (2, 1, 3) model was applied to predict onion consumption in 2015-2018. The results not only show a suitable prediction based on  error criteria for the above mentioned models, but also reveals the fact that the application of an annual series using appropriate and valid models can provide acceptable results. The comparison of these Predictions with actual values is a sign for the high prediction power of these models and confirm this claim. According to our study, it is anticipated that per capita consumption of potato and onion will reach to 31.4 and 18.9 kg at the end of the year 2018.

Keywords

Prediction, Dual power adjustment, ARIMA, VAR ،٬ ARDL, Potato and onion

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