Kamu ve İç Borçların Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Eşik Etkisi: Kenya Örneği

Abstract

Bu çalışma 1970-2018 dönemi için Kenya'da kamu borcunun ve iç borcun ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki eşik etkisinin varlığını araştırmaktadır. Kamu ve iç borcun büyüme üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmek için Smooth Transition regrasyon modeli kullanılmaktadır. Çalışmanın bulguları, Kenya'da iç borç eşik seviyesinin %17,3115 olduğunu ve bu eşik değer aşıldığında iç borcun ekonomik büyümeyi olumlu etkilediğini göstermektedir. Kamu borç eşiği tahmini %33,29'dur ve kamu borcu bu seviyenin üzerine çıktığında büyüme pozitif etkilenmektedir. Bu sonuçlar Kenya'da kamu ve iç borcun ekonomik büyüme ile U-şeklinde bir ilişkiye sahip olduğuna ve ekonomik büyüme oranının ülkenin borç miktarına bağlı olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Bu sonuçlar, ekonomik büyümenin sağlanması için borcun daha verimli kullanılmasına yönelik uygun politikalara ihtiyaç duyulduğuna işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

• Kamu Borcu
• İç Borç
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Borç Eşik Değeri

The Threshold Effect of Public and Internal Debt on Economic Growth: The Case of Kenya

Abstract

This paper investigates the presence of the threshold effect of public debt and internal debt on economic growth in Kenya for the period 1970-2018. The Smooth Transition Regression model of analysis is used to analyze the effect of public and internal debt on growth. The findings of the study indicate that the threshold level of internal debt in Kenya is 17.3115% implying that domestic debt positively impacts economic growth when this threshold level is exceeded. The public debt threshold estimate is 33.29% and growth is positively affected when public debt exceeds this level. The results of this study imply that public and internal debt have a U-shaped relationship with the economic growth rate in Kenya and that the rate of economic growth is dependent on the amount of debt owed by the country. These results imply that there is a need for appropriate policy actions on more productive use of debt to ensure economic growth.

Keywords

• Public Debt
• Internal Debt
• Economic Growth
• Threshold Level of Debt

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