Global Financial Crisis and Trade Papers: Topic Analysis Via Latent Dirichlet Allocation Model

Abstract

We examine the trends in the studies published in international trade journals indexed in Web of Science (WoS) before and after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This study investigates the 5001 abstracts of trade articles starting from the post-millennium period by addressing issues in WoS database trade journals using the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic model. The purpose of the study is to evaluate whether topics and words differ that have been discussed in international trade literature before and after GFC. Mostly, contain topics differ when two periods are compared, although trade agreements and disputes, stock markets, and growth issues are frequently mentioned in both periods. In the post-crisis period, volatility, banks, and firm-specific issues are more popular. It is also among the findings that Asian economies gained importance after GFC. Generally, it has been revealed that the topics and titles in the trade literature can reflect current developments in international economics. Therefore, probably for next years, advances in technology as blockchain, emerging economies –especially China and India – and firm-based micro-scale papers will dominate the trade journals.

Keywords

• International Trade
• Latent Dirichlet Allocation
• Topic Modeling
• Trends of Trade

Global Finansal Kriz ve Ticaret Makaleleri: Gizil Dirichlet Ayrımı Yöntemiyle Başlık Analizi

Abstract

Çalışmamızda; 2008 Global Finansal Kriz öncesinde ve sonrasında Web of Science’da uluslararası ticaret ile ilgili yayınlanan makalelerdeki trendler ele alınmaktadır. Bu çalışma, milenyum sonrası dönemden başlayarak Web of Science veri tabanında yer alan 5001 uluslararası ticaret makale özetini Gizli Dirichlet Ayrımı başlık analizini kullanarak incelemektedir. Çalışmanın amacı, global finansal kriz öncesi ve sonrası uluslararası ticaret literatüründe tartışılan konuların ve kelimelerin farklılaşıp farklılaşmadığını değerlendirmektir. Çoğunlukla, iki dönem kıyaslandığında konu başlıkları farklılık gösterse de; her iki dönemde de ticaret anlaşmaları ve anlaşmazlıklar, hisse senedi piyasaları ve büyüme sorunları sıklıkla dile getirilmektedir. Kriz sonrası dönemde istikrarsızlık, bankalar ve firmaya özgü konuların daha popüler olduğu görülmektedir. Asya ekonomilerinin global finansal krizden sonra önem kazandığı da bulgular arasındadır. Genel olarak ticaret literatüründe yer alan konu ve başlıkların uluslararası ekonomideki güncel gelişmeleri yansıtabildiği ortaya çıkmaktadır. Bu nedenle, muhtemelen önümüzdeki yıllarda gelişmekte olan ekonomiler - özellikle Çin ve Hindistan’da blockchain ve teknolojideki gelişmeler ve firma tabanlı mikro ölçekli makaleler ticaret dergilerine hâkim olacaktır.

Keywords

• Uluslararası Ticaret
• Gizil Dirichlet Ayrımı
• Başlık Analizi
• Ticaret Eğilimleri

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