The Outlook for Peace in Cyprus after the Financial Crisis and Gas Discoveries

Year 2017, Volume: 19 Issue: 43, 1 - 13, 01.06.2017

Akif Bahadır Kaynak

Abstract

The end of Cold War eased political tensions in many corners of the World however the conflicts arising from regional dynamics were carried on to the new century. The Greek-Turkish power struggle on Cyprus is among those hot spots where a political settlement has not been reached yet even though the root of disagreement lies in Cold War years. The rejection of Annan Plan by the South in 2004 created a frustration in the Northern Cyprus and Turkey breaking hopes for reconciliation. This status quo was fundamentally altered when the economic model of Cyprus collapsed as a consequence of contagion from European financial crisis. Almost simultaneously significant reserves of natural gas deposits were discovered in Eastern Mediterranean some of which were located to the south of the island. Aphrodite natural gas reserve promised the recovery of economic glimmer of the island provided that legal and technical issues on the extraction and transfer of this resource to European markets are resolved. Turkey has the means to increase transaction costs for Cyprus and energy companies if left out of this deal but can alternatively provide a transit route to European markets for Cyprus’ natural gas. The demise of Cyprus as an off-shore financial center and the prospects for becoming and energy supplier to European markets changed the payoffs of this deadlocked game considerably. In this new setting Turkey, Greece and Cypriots have a strong incentive to cooperate in order to realize the potential in the energy game

Keywords

Cyprus, European financial crisis, energy cooperation, natural gas, Eastern Mediterranean

Finansal Kriz ve Doğalgaz Keşifleri Sonrası Kıbrıs’ta Barış için Görünüm

Abstract

Soğuk Savaş’ın sonu dünyanın birçok köşesindeki politik gerilimlerin azalmasına sahne olsa da bölgesel dinamiklerden kaynaklanan çatışmalar yeni yüzyıla taşınmıştır. Kıbrıs üzerindeki Türk-Yunan güç mücadelesi de henüz bir siyasi çözüme ulaşılamayan bu sıcak noktalardan biridir. 2004 yılında Annan Planı’nın Güney’de reddi Kuzey Kıbrıs’ta ve Türkiye’de hayal kırıklığı yaratmış, çözüm umutlarının kaybolmasına yol açmıştır. Bu durum, Kıbrıs’ın ekonomik kalkınma modelinin Avrupa ekonomik krizinin bir uzantısı olarak çökmesiyle temelden değişecektir. Neredeyse eş zamanlı olarak da bir kısmı adanın güneyinde olan doğalgaz rezervleri Doğu Akdeniz’de keşfedilmiştir. Afrodit doğalgaz sahası, gazın çıkarma ve transferine ilişkin hukuki ve teknik sorunların çözülmesi kaydıyla adanın kaybolmakta olan ışıltısını geri kazandırma umudunu taşımaktadır. Kıbrıs’ın bir off-shore finansal merkez olarak çöküşü ile beraber Avrupa pazarlarına enerji ihracatçısı haline gelme ihtimali bu kilitlenmiş siyasi oyundaki muhtemel getirileri değiştirmiştir. Bu yeni durumda, Türkiye, Yunanistan ve Kıbrıslılar’ın enerji oyunundaki potansiyeli gerçekleştirebilmek için işbirliği yapmalarına güçlü bir gerekçe çıkmıştır

Keywords

Kıbrıs, Avrupa mali krizi, enerji işbirliği, doğal gaz, Doğu Akdeniz

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