A Comparative Spatiotemporal Analysis for Long-Term Trends of Hydrometeorological Variables in Maritsa River Basin

Abstract

Revealing long-term trends in hydrometeorological variables plays a critical role in the sustainable management and planning of water resources. These analyses are necessary to understand climate change impacts, taking precautions for natural disasters, plan agricultural activities, and develop water management strategies. The aim of this study is to examine the changes in monthly and annual total precipitation and evapotranspiration values in the Maritsa River Basin, a transboundary water basin between Bulgaria, Greece, and Türkiye. For this, precipitation values for the 1982-2023 water years were taken from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data set, and evapotranspiration values for the 1982-2023 water years were taken from the European Reanalysis 5th Generation-Land (ERA5-Land) data set. The Mann-Kendall, Sen's slope estimator, and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) methods were used to determine trends. According to the test results, there is a statistically significant increase in annual total precipitation values within the 95% confidence interval and in annual total evapotranspiration values within the 99% confidence interval. Specifically with all three methods positive and statistically significant trends are observed in precipitation in October, January, May and June. In the monthly evapotranspiration trend analysis, a statistically significant increase is observed except for November, December, June and July. Trend increases were visualized using the graphical method ITA. Significant increasing trends in both monthly and annual precipitation and evapotranspiration reveal changes in the hydrological cycle of the basin. The test results can be used in planning and solving problems related to the basin area.

Keywords

• Maritsa River Basin
• Precipitation
• Evapotranspiration
• Trend Analysis
• Climate Change

Meriç Nehir Havzası'ndaki Hidrometeorolojik Değişkenlerin Uzun Dönem Eğilimleri için Karşılaştırmalı Mekansal ve Zamansal Analizi

Abstract

Hidrometeorolojik değişkenlerdeki uzun dönem eğilimleri ortaya çıkarmak, su kaynaklarının sürdürülebilir yönetimi ve planlamasında kritik bir rol oynar. Bu analizler, iklim değişikliğinin etkilerini anlamak, doğal afetler için önlemler almak, tarımsal faaliyetleri planlamak ve su yönetim stratejilerini geliştirmek için gereklidir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Bulgaristan, Yunanistan ve Türkiye arasında sınır aşan bir su havzası olan Meriç Nehri Havzası’ndaki aylık ve yıllık toplam yağış ile evapotranspirasyon değerlerindeki değişimleri incelemektir. Bu amaçla, 1982-2023 su yılları için yağış değerleri “Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS)” veri setinden, evapotranspirasyon değerleri ise “European Reanalysis 5th Generation-Land (ERA5-Land)” veri setinden alınmıştır. Eğilimlerin belirlenmesi için Mann-Kendall, Sen’in eğim tahmini ve Yenilikçi Eğilim Analizi (ITA) yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Test sonuçlarına göre, yıllık toplam yağış değerlerinde %95 güven aralığında ve yıllık toplam evapotranspirasyon değerlerinde %99 güven aralığunda istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir artış görülmektedir. Özellikle 3 yöntemde de Ekim, Ocak, Mayıs ve Haziran aylarında yağışlarda pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı eğilimler gözlemlenmiştir. Aylık evapotranspirasyon eğilim analizinde ise Kasım, Aralık, Haziran ve Temmuz ayları dışında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir artış gözlemlenmiştir. Eğilimdeki artışlar ITA yöntemi kullanılarak grafiksel olarak görselleştirilmiştir. Hem aylık hem de yıllık yağış ve evapotranspirasyondaki anlamlı artış eğilimleri havzanın hidrolojik döngüsünde değişiklikler olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Test sonuçları, havza alanıyla ilgili sorunların planlanmasında ve çözümünde kullanılabilir.

Keywords

• Meriç Nehri Havzası
• Yağış
• Evapotranspirasyon
• Eğilim Analizi
• İklim Değişikliği

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