The Impact of Climatic and Environmental Factors on the Frequency of Natural Disasters in the Insurance Sector in G7 Countries

Abstract

In this study, the effects of temperature, precipitation, greenhouse gas emissions and load capacity factor (LCF), which is one of the environmental sustainability indices, on the frequency of natural disasters occurring in G7 countries between 1989-2022 were evaluated by panel data analysis method. The findings obtained show that increasing greenhouse gas emissions, precipitation and temperature due to climate change increase the number of natural disasters, while the decrease in the LCF factor increases the number of natural disasters. While Pedroni and Kao cointegration tests reveal the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables, the Panel Error Correction Model (ECM) results corrected with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors show that greenhouse gas emissions and the LCF factor, which seem to be ineffective in the short term, become determinants of the frequency of natural disasters in the long term. The increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters due to the impact of climate change and environmental factors reveal that insurance systems are an important risk management tool against such events. In the context of G7 countries, it is suggested that regulatory frameworks should be strengthened, public-private partnerships should be increased and advanced risk modeling techniques should be adopted to ensure the adaptation of the insurance sector to climate change. This study contributes to the literature by using LCF as an innovative factor in examining disaster dynamics and by presenting suggestions for the development of long-term risk management policies for the insurance sector.

Keywords

• Natural Disaster Frequency
• Load Capacity Factor
• Temperature
• Rainfall
• Climate Change
• Insurance

G7 Ülkelerinde İklimsel ve Çevresel Faktörlerin Doğal Afetlerin Meydana Gelme Sıklığı Üzerindeki Etkisinin Sigortacılık Sektörüne Yansımaları

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, 1989-2022 yılları arasında G7 ülkelerinde meydana gelen doğal afetlerin sıklığı üzerinde, sıcaklık, yağış, sera gazı emisyonları ve çevresel sürdürülebilirlik endekslerinden olan yük kapasite faktörünün (LCF) etkileri panel veri analizi yöntemiyle değerlendirilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, iklim değişikliği sebebiyle artan seragazı emisyonları, yağış ve sıcaklık miktarının doğal afet sayısını artırdığı, LCF faktörünün azalması ise meydana gelen doğal afet sayısını artırdığı gözlemlenmiştir. Pedroni ve Kao eşbütünleşme testleri, değişkenler arasında uzun vadeli bir ilişkinin varlığını ortaya koyarken, Driscoll-Kraay standart hatalarıyla düzeltilmiş Panel Hata Düzeltme Modeli (ECM) sonuçları, kısa vadede etkisiz gibi görünen sera gazı emisyonları ve LCF faktörünün uzun vadede doğal afet sıklığı üzerinde belirleyici hale geldiğini göstermektedir. İklim değişikliği ve çevresel faktörlerin etkisiyle artan doğal afet sıklığı ve şiddeti, sigorta sistemlerinin bu tür olaylar karşısında önemli bir risk yönetim aracı olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. G7 ülkeleri bağlamında, sigorta sektörünün iklim değişikliğine adaptasyonunu sağlamak için düzenleyici çerçevelerin güçlendirilmesi, kamu-özel iş birliklerinin artırılması ve gelişmiş risk modelleme tekniklerinin benimsenmesi önerilmektedir. Bu çalışma, afet dinamiklerinin incelenmesinde yenilikçi bir faktör olarak LCF kullanımı ve sigortacılık sektörüne yönelik uzun vadeli risk yönetimi politikalarının geliştirilmesine yönelik öneriler sunarak literatüre katkı sağlamaktadır.

Keywords

• Doğal Afet Sıklığı
• Yük Kapasite Faktörü
• Sıcaklık
• Yağış
• İklim Değişikliği
• Sigorta

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