Deprem Dirençliliği Bağlamında Kırılganlık Değerlendirmesi: Bayraklı, İzmir Örneği

Year 2026, Volume: 12 Issue: 1, 1 - 32, 25.01.2026

Helin Aydın , Deniz Gerçek

https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.1664234

Abstract

Depremler, tüm doğal afetler arasında, Türkiye tarihinde en yıkıcı sonuçlara yol açmıştır. Afet kaynaklı can kayıplarının çoğunluğu depremlerden kaynaklanmaktadır. Bayraklı, tarihi ve ekonomik öneminin yanı sıra, İzmir'in yüksek afet riski ve deprem tehlikelerine karşı savunmasız yapı stoğunun yoğun olduğu bir ilçesidir. Bu çalışmada, Bayraklı’nın deprem kırılganlığının değerlendirilmesi amaçlanmış ve Bayraklı'nın tüm mahallelerini (24 mahalle) kapsayacak şekilde mahalle ölçeğinde uygulanmıştır. Çalışmada kapsamlı bir kırılganlık değerlendirmesi yapılmış olup bu değerlendirmeüç boyutu kapsamaktadır: fiziksel kırılganlık, sosyal kırılganlık ve yapılı çevrenin fiziksel kapasitesi. Çalışmanın temelinde uzman değerlendirmelerine dayanarak, AHP yöntemi ile yapılan deprem kırılganlığı ile ilgili kriterlerin göreceli önemi ortaya çıkarılmıştır. Her ana boyut için oluşturulan kırılganlık haritaları, Çay ve Çiçek’i içeren en savunmasız mahalleleri ortaya koyan çalışma alanının nihai kırılganlık haritasında birleştirilmiştir. Çalışmaen etkili faktörlerive en savunmasız bölgeleri gösteren bulgular, Bayraklı'nın deprem tehlikelerine karşı kırılganlığını azaltmak için stratejileri teşvik edebilecek özel müdahalelere olanak tanımaktadır.

Keywords

Kırılganlık Değerlendirmesi , Afet Riski , Deprem Tehlikesi , Kapasite , Dirençlilik , Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci

Vulnerability Assessment in the Context of Earthquake Resilience: Case Study of Bayraklı, İzmir, Turkey

Abstract

Earthquakes, among all natural hazards, have historically caused the most devastating impacts in Turkey, accounting for the majority of disaster-related casualties. Besides its historical and economic importance, Bayraklı is a district of İzmir with high disaster risk and a high concentration of building stock that is vulnerable to earthquake hazards. This study aims to assess the earthquake vulnerability of the district and was implemented at the neighborhood scale, covering all neighborhoods of Bayraklı (24 neighborhoods). A comprehensive vulnerability assessment encompassed three dimensions: physical vulnerability, social vulnerability, and physical capacity of the built environment. Based on expert evaluations through the AHP method, the relative importance of criteria regarding earthquake vulnerability was revealed. Vulnerability maps for each main dimension were combined in a final vulnerability map of the study area revealing the most vulnerable neighborhoods, which include Çay, Çiçek, Alpaslan, Bayraklı, Muhittin Erener, and Tepekule respectively. The findings showcasing the most influential factors of vulnerability and the most vulnerable regions allow for tailored interventions that can promote strategies to reduce Bayraklı's vulnerability to earthquake hazard.

Keywords

Vulnerability Assessment , Disaster Risk , Earthquake Hazard , Capacity , Resilience , Analytical Hierarchy Process

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