The Impact of Natural Disasters in the New Normal of Uncertainty and Climate Change

Abstract

The changing climate is leading to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration and timing of weather and climate extremes, and to unprecedented extremes. Even if not statistically extreme, weather or climate events cause extreme conditions or impacts by exceeding a critical threshold in a social, ecological or physical system or by occurring simultaneously with other events. In this study, global greenhouse gas emissions, climate-related natural disasters (extreme temperatures, drought, wildfire, excessive precipitation, flood and landslide) and economic losses resulting from disasters were examined, and the types, scope, effects and most affected administrative areas of climate-related natural disasters that occurred in the world in 2003-2022, 2023 and 2024 were evaluated by using EM-DAT data. Additionally, the number of people affected by disasters, the number of deaths, the number of disaster events, the number of people affected per event, and the number of people dying per event were determined. No significant difference was found in the number of climate-related disasters occurring between countries with different development levels and countries located on different continents.

Keywords

• Climate Change
• Natural Disasters
• Human Impact
• Sustainable Development

Belirsizlik ve İklim Değişiminin Yeni Normalinde Doğal Afetlerin Etkisi

Abstract

Değişen iklim, hava ve iklim aşırılıklarının sıklığında, şiddetinde, mekânsal kapsamında, süresinde ve zamanlamasında değişikliklere ve benzeri görülmemiş aşırılıklara yol açmaktadır. İstatistiksel anlamda aşırı olmasalar dahi hava veya iklim olayları, sosyal, ekolojik veya fiziksel bir sistemde kritik bir eşiği aşarak veya diğer olaylarla eş zamanlı meydana gelerek aşırı koşullara veya etkilere neden olmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, küresel sera gazı emisyonları, iklim kaynaklı doğal afetler (aşırı sıcaklıklar, kuraklık, orman yangını, aşırı yağışlar, taşkın ve heyelan) ve afetlerden kaynaklanan ekonomik kayıplar incelenmiş, 2003-2022, 2023 ve 2024 yıllarında dünyada meydana gelen iklim kaynaklı doğal afetlerin çeşitleri, kapsamı, etkileri ve en çok etkilediği idari alanlar EM-DAT verileri kullanılarak değerlendirilmiştir. Ayrıca, afetlerden etkilenen insan sayısı, ölümlerin sayısı, afet olaylarının sayısı, olay başına etkilenen insan sayısı ve olay başına ölen insan sayıları belirlenmiştir. Farklı gelişmişlik düzeyine sahip ülkeler ile farklı kıtalarda yer alan ülkeler arasında meydana gelen iklim kaynaklı afetlerin sayısında anlamlı bir farklılık bulunamamıştır.

Keywords

• İklim Değişimi
• Doğal Afetler
• İnsan Etkisi
• Sürdürülebilir Gelişme

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