DÖVİZ KURUNUN ULUSLARARASI HİZMET TİCARETİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ASİMETRİK ETKİSİNİN BELİRLENMESİ: TÜRKİYE’DEN BULGULAR

Year 2025, Volume: 5 Issue: 1, 59 - 74, 30.03.2025

Kadir Karagöz

https://doi.org/10.61964/dade.1637561

Abstract

Son yüzyıllara kadar tüm dünyada ekonomilerin temelini tarımsal üretim oluşturmakta iken Sanayi Devrimi ile birlikte endüstriyel üretim de önemli bir paya ulaşmıştır. Ancak, son yüzyılda hizmet sektörünün hızla büyümesi uluslararası ticarette de hizmet sektörünün payını artırmıştır. Uluslararası mal ticaretinin döviz kuru ile ilişkisi birçok çalışmada ele alınmış, bu konuda belirli bir ampirik uzlaşı ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu çalışmada ise, hizmet sektöründe gerçekleştirilen ithalat ve ihracatın döviz kuru hareketleriyle ilişkisi Türkiye örneğinde, zaman serileri analizi kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, yerli paradaki değerlenmenin hizmet ihracatını olumlu etkilediğine, ithalat üzerinde ise anlamlı bir etkide bulunmadığına işaret etmektedir. Ayrıca, tahminler Türkiye’de hizmet sektörü açısından Marshall-Lerner koşulunun tam olarak sağlanmadığını, J eğrisi olgusunun geçerli olmadığını ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

Hizmet sektörü, ihracat, ithalat, zaman serileri analizi, NARDL modeli

DETECTING ASYMMETRIC IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN SERVICES: EVIDENCE FROM TÜRKİYE

Abstract

While agricultural production constituted the basis of economies all over the world until the last centuries, industrial production has reached an important share with the Industrial Revolution. However, the rapid growth of the service sector in the last century has increased the share of the service sector in international trade. The relationship between international trade in goods and exchange rates has been the subject of many studies, and a certain empirical consensus has emerged on this issue. This study investigates whether imports and exports in the services sector have an asymmetric relationship with exchange rate fluctuations in the case of Turkish economy. The findings indicate that the appreciation of the domestic currency has a positive effect on services exports, while it has no significant effect on imports. Moreover, the estimations reveal that the Marshall-Lerner condition is not fully fulfilled for the services sector in Türkiye, and the J curve phenomenon is not valid.

Keywords

Service sector, exports, imports, time series analysis, NARDL model

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