INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AS A LEADING INDICATOR FOR CONTAINER PORT THROUGHPUT IN TURKEY
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to determine the causal relationship between container traffic in Turkish ports and industrial production of Turkey considering the possible nonlinear structures and lagged impacts in order to generate results which are likely to be useful for the future planning of the ports. In accordance with this purpose, the non-linear test proposed by Diks and Panchenko (2006) has been used. The dataset consists of 172 monthly observations and covers the period between January 2005 and April 2019. According to the results obtained by considering the nonlinear structures, there is a significant unidirectional causality relationship from industrial production index to port throughputs and the impact continues during 3 periods (months). This situation can be thought to be caused by the intensive use of imported intermediate goods by Turkish producers. According to the demand level, it may take several periods for the changes in the future production planning to be reflected in the ports. These results are hoped to provide significant contributions both to ports, port users and policy makers in terms of strategy development and planning.
Keywords
References
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