POLİTİK İSTİKRARSIZLIK - EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ (1987–2006)

Year 2010, Volume: 25 Issue: 1 - Volume: 25 Issue: 1, - 3, 25.07.2016

Selim Şanlısoy Recep Kök

Abstract

Ekonomi ve politika sürekli olarak karşılıklı bir etkileşim içerisindedir. Özellikle ekonomik değişkenlerle demokratikleşme arasında ilişki hakkında kesin bir yargıya varılamaması, politik istikrarsızlık ile ekonomik değişkenler arasında ortaya çıkan ilişkilerin incelenmesinin gerekliliğini ortaya koymaktadır. Son dönemdeki çalışmalarda salt demokratikleşme bileşenleri yerine daha geniş bileşenleri kapsayan politik istikrar ya da politik istikrarsızlık değişkenleri kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı; Türkiye koşullarında oldukça sık yaşanan politik istikrarsızlığın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini incelemektir. Burada değişkenlerin analizi bağlamında (veri zaman serisi) tek denklemli bir model kurulmakta, bu model çerçevesinde temel değişkenlerden ve kontrol değişkenlerinden yararlanılarak analizler yapılmaktadır. Bu araştırmanın bulgularına göre politik istikrasızlıkla ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ters yönlü ilişki, literatürle uyumlu olarak Türkiye açısından da doğrulanmakta ve çalışmada bu referansla çeşitli bazı politika önerilerinde bulunulmaktadır.

Keywords

Politik istikrarsızlık, Ekonomik Büyüme, Eşbütünleşme

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POLITICAL INSTABILITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY (1987-2006)

Abstract

Economy and policy are always in mutual interaction. Especially the fact that sharp judgement between economical variables and democratization cannot be put forward shows that the relationship between political instability and economical variables should be analysed. In recent studies political stability or instability variables including more comprehensive variables instead of democratization variables have been used. The main aim of this study is to analyse the effects of political instability often experienced in Turkey’s conditions on economic growth. Here in terms of the analysis of variables (data time series) a model with single equation was established and within the framework of this model some analyses were carried out with the help of main and control variables. To the findings, in accordance with the literature, it is verified that there is a reverse relationship between political instability and economic growth in Turkey and in the light of the findings, some policy suggestions are also made.

Keywords

Political Instability, Economic Growth, Cointegration

References

• ABDIWELI, M. Ali (2001), “Political Instability, Policy Uncertainty, and Economic Growth: An Emprical Investigation”, Atlantic Economic Journal, Vol: 29, 87–106.
• ALESINA, Alberto, WEDER, Beatrice (1999), Do Corrupt Governments Receive Less Foreign Aid, NBER.
• ALESINA, Alberto, PEROTTI, Roberto (1996), Income Distribution, Political Instability, and Investment, European Economic Review , 40, 1203- 1228.
• ASTERIOU, Dimitrios, PRICE, Simon (2001), “Political Instability and Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol: 48 No:4, 383–399.
• ASTERIOU, Dimitrios, ECONOMIDES, George, PHILIPOPOULOS, Apostolis ve Simon PRICE, (2000), “Electoral Uncertainty, Fiscal Policy and Economic www.aueb.gr/users/gecon/Asteriou%20et%20al.%20(2000).pdf, University. Growth, City
• BARRO, J. Robert (1991) “Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Countries”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 407–443.
• BARRO, J. Robert, LEE, J. Wha (1994), Sources of Economic Growth, Canegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy.
• BRUNETTI, Aymo, “Political Variables in Growth Regressions”, Volatility, Uncertainty, Instability and Growth, http://www.rrojasdatabank.org/borner/borner6.pdf,
• CAMPOS, F. Nauro, NUGENT B. Jeffrey (2002), “Who is Afraid of Political Instability?”, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 67, 157-172.57-172.
• DUYGULU, Aylin Abuk (2005), “Kurala Bağlı Para Politikası Kapsamında Parasal Hedefleme: Türkiye Örneği”, DEÜ SBE Dergisi, Cilt:7 Sayı:4, İzmir.
• EASTERLY, William, REBELO, Sergio (1993) “Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, 417–458.
• EDIN, Per-Anders, OHLSSON, Henry (1991) “Political Determinants of Budget Deficit: Coalition Effects Versus Minority Effects”, Europan Economic Review, 35, 1597–1603.
• ENGLE, F. Robert, GRANGER, W.J. Clive (1987), “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55, 251–276.
• ENGLE, F. Robert, YOO, S. Byung (1991), “Cointegrated Economic Time Series: An Overview with New Results” Long Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration, Edt. Robert F. Engle, Clive W.J. Granger, Oxford University Press, New York.
• EREN, Ercan, BİLDİRİCİ, Melike (2001), “Türkiye’de Siyasal ve İktisadi İstikrarsızlık; 1980–2001”, İşletme ve Finans, 187, 27–33.
• FIELDING, David (1999), Economic Consequences of the Intifada: Investment and Political Instability in Israel, University of Leicester, http://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/leecon/econ00-2.pdf.
• FRANZESE, Robert J. (1998), Are Budget Deficit Used Strategically, University franzese/DebtPaper.Short.pdf. Michigan, http://www-personal.umich.edu/
• GRANGER, W.J. Clive, NEWBOLD, Paul (1974), “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics” Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111–120.
• GREGORY, W. Allan, HANSEN, Bruce E. (1996), “Residual Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts”, Journal of Econometrics, 70, 99–126.
• GRILLI, Vittorio, MASCIANDARO, Donato, ve Guido TABELLINI (1991), “Political and Monetary Instutions and Public Policies in ther Industrial Countries”, Economic Policy, 13, 341–392.
• GÜVEL, Enver Alper (1998), “Türkiye Ekonomisinin Kısa Dönem Analizi (1987–1997): Makro Politikalar ve Ekonomik Dalgalanmalar Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir İnceleme”, Çukurova Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8, 17–42.
• İNSEL, Ahmet (1991), “Siyasal Bir Süreç Olarak İktisadi Kalkınma II”, Birikim, Sayı: 21, 12–23.
• LENSINK, Robert, HERMES, Niels ve Victor MURINDE (2000), “Capital Flight and Political Risk”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 19, 73- 92.
• PEROTTI, Roberto (1996), Growth, Income Distribution and Democracy: What the Data Say, Journal of Economic Growth, 1, 149–187.
• PEROTTI, Roberto, KONTOPOULOS, Yianos (1999), Fragmented Fiscal Policy, Columbia University, http://www.columbia.edu/˜rp41/webfragm.pdf.
• PESARAN, M. Hashem, PESARAN, Bahram (1997), Microfit 4.0, Camfit Data Ltd, England.
• PHILLIPS, C.B. Peter, HANSEN, E. Bruce (1990), “Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes”, Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99–125.
• ROMER, David (1996), Advanced Macroecenomics, McGraw –Hill, Singapore.
• SAİKKONEN, Pentti (1991), “Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions”, Econometric Theory, 7, 1–21.
• SALA-I MARTIN, Xavier (1997), I Just run Four Million Regressions, NBER Working Paper No: 4186.
• STEVENS, Guy (2000), Politics, Economics and Investment: Explaining Plant and Equipment Spending by US Direct Investors in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, Journal of International Money and Finance, 19, 153–183.
• STOCK, James, WATSON, W. Mark (1993), “A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems”, Econometrica, 61, 783–820.
• SVENSSON, Jakop (1998), Investment, Property Rights, Political instability: Theory and Evidence, European Economic Rewiev, 42, 1317–1341.
• TELATAR, Erdinç, TELATAR, Funda (2004), “Standart IMF İstikrar Politikaları: Politik İstikrarsızlığa Yol Açan Bir Kanal” İşletme ve Finans, 215, 53–65.
• TELATAR, Funda (2003), “Türkiye’de Politika Değişkenliği İle Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkileri”, İşletme ve Finans, 211, 71–91.