Effects of Rivalry among Great Powers on Middle Powers: US-China Trade War and South Korea

Abstract

Middle powers (MPs) are defined as states that try to expand their spheres of power without clashing with regional and global powers. In this context, competition among global powers may create opportunities and risks for MPs. For example, it can be said that during the Cold War period, the financial aid and defense aid provided by the leading states of the Eastern and Western blocs to keep MPs in their own blocs, created an opportunity for them to realize their own economic development. However, competition between the two great powers can also create risks for MPs. The trade war launched by the USA against China has brought various risks and opportunities for MPs. South Korea is one of the most negatively affected MP from the trade war. For South Korea, whose economy is based on the free trade paradigm, the United States is both its most important security ally and one of its most important trade partner. China, which has become the world's largest exporting country, has also become South Korea's largest trading partner. In this study, South Korea’s relations with the USA and China and the effects of the trade war on South Korea were examined. In this framework, first of all, the development of South Korea’s relations with both countries was evaluated. Then, the effects of the trade war on South Korea as a MP were evaluated. Increasing competition between the two countries has squeezed South Korea. Its relations with the United States have declined to the lowest level since the end of the Korean War and have been subjected to unofficial economic sanctions by China.

Keywords

• South Korea
• trade war
• United States
• China
• Middle Power States

Büyük Güçler Arasındaki Rekabetin Orta Büyüklükte Devletlere Etkileri: ABD-Çin Ticaret Savaşı ve Güney Kore

Öz

Orta büyüklükte devletler (OBD), bölgesel ve küresel güçlerle çatışmaya girmeden kendi güç alanlarını genişletmeye çalışan devletler olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Bu bağlamda küresel güçlerin kendi aralarındaki rekabeti, orta büyüklükteki güçler için fırsatlar ve riskler yaratabilir. Örneğin Soğuk Savaş döneminde, Doğu ve Batı bloklarının lider devletlerinin OBD’leri kendi bloklarında tutabilmek için sağladıkları finansal yardım, savunma yardımı gibi destekler OBD’lere kendi ekonomik kalkınmalarını gerçekleştirebilmeleri için fırsat yaratmıştır. Bununla birlikte, iki büyük güç arasındaki rekabet, OBD’ler için riskler de getirebilir. ABD’nin Çin’e karşı başlattığı ticaret savaşı da OBD’ler için benzer riskleri ve fırsatları beraberinde getirmiştir. Ticaret savaşından en olumsuz etkilenen OBD’lerin başında Güney Kore gelmektedir. Ekonomisi serbest ticaret paradigması üzerine kurulu olan Güney Kore için ABD hem güvenlik alanında en önemli müttefiki hem de en büyük ticaret ortaklarından biridir. Dünyanın en çok ihracat yapan ülkesi haline gelen Çin de Güney Kore’nin en büyük ticaret ortağı haline gelmiştir. Bu çalışmada Güney Kore’nin ABD ve Çin ile ilişkileri ve ticaret savaşının Güney Kore’ye etkileri OBD’lerin kapasiteleri ve sınırlılıkları çerçevesinde incelenmiştir. Bu çerçevede öncelikle Güney Kore’nin her iki ülkeyle de olan ilişkilerinin gelişimi değerlendirilmiş; ardından da ticaret savaşının bir OBD olarak Güney Kore’ye olan etkileri ortaya konmuştur. İki ülke arasında yaşanan rekabetin artması Güney Kore’yi sıkıştırmış; ABD ile olan ilişkileri Kore Savaşının bitmesinden bu yana en düşük seviyeye gerilemiş ve Çin tarafından da gayrı resmi ekonomik yaptırımlara maruz bırakılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Güney Kore
• ticaret savaşı
• ABD
• Çin
• Orta Büyüklükte Devlet

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