COVID-19 Pandemisinin Sağlık Yönetimi Tarımsal Emtia Fiyatlarının bir Nedeni midir? Bootstrap Fourier Nedensellik Testinden Yeni Kanıtlar

Year 2021, , 86 - 93, 30.03.2021

Erdal Tanas Karagöl , Mert Akyüz , Çağın Karul

https://doi.org/10.18678/dtfd.879572

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Amaç: Koronavirüs hastalığı 2019 (coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19) pandemisi ulusal ve uluslararası düzeyde hem sağlık yönetiminde hem de ekonomik hayatta olumsuz sonuçlar doğurmuştur. Bu araştırmanın amacı, COVID-19 salgını ile dünya için tarımsal emtia fiyatları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini incelemektir.
Gereç ve Yöntemler: Bu amaçla, 24 Ocak 2020 - 22 Ocak 2021 dönemi için Toda-Yamamoto ve Fourier Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testleri kullanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini test etmeden önce, maksimum entegrasyon derecesini belirlemek için her bir seriye augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) ve Fourier ADF birim kök testleri uygulanmıştır.
Bulgular: Bulgular, tüm değişkenlerin ilk farklarında durağan olduğunu ve maksimum entegrasyon derecesinin 1 olarak belirlendiğini göstermiştir. Nedensellik testlerinden elde edilen sonuçlar, COVID-19 yeni vakalarının kahve, şeker, pamuk, mısır ve soya fiyatlarının Granger nedeni olduğunu gösterirken COVID-19’a bağlı yeni vakaların buğday ve yulaf fiyatlarının Granger nedeni olmadığını göstermiştir. Ayrıca COVID-19’a bağlı yeni ölümler kahve, şeker ve pamuk fiyatlarının Granger nedeni olurken COVID-19 ölümlerinin ise mısır, soya fasulyesi, buğday ve yulaf fiyatlarının Granger nedeni olmadığı sonucuna varılmıştır.
Sonuç: Bu çalışmada, Toda-Yamamoto ve Fourier Toda Yamamoto nedensellik testlerine dayalı zaman serisi analizi dünyadaki COVID-19 toplam yeni vakalarının ve toplam yeni ölümlerin tarımsal emtia fiyatlarını tahmin etme gücüne sahip olduğunu vurgulamaktadır. Bu nedenle sağlık yönetimi açısından politika yapıcılar, COVID-19 pandemisi döneminde COVID-19 ile ilgili sağlık politikaları ve tarım politikalarının birlikte uygulanmasına büyük önem vermelidir.

Keywords

Koronavirüs, Halk Sağlığı, Emtia Piyasaları, Granger Nedensellik

Is Health Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic a Cause of Agricultural Commodity Prices? New Evidences From Bootstrap Fourier Causality Test

Abstract

Aim: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have included negative consequences both in health management and economic life at national and international level. The aim of this research is to examine the causal relationship between COVID-19 pandemic and agricultural commodity prices for the world.
Material and Methods: To this end, we employ Toda-Yamamoto and Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality tests for the period of January 24, 2020 to January 22, 2021. Before testing the causal relationship between variables, we apply augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Fourier ADF unit root tests to each series to determine maximum order of integration.
Results: The findings show that all variables are stationary in their first difference and the maximum order of integration is determined as 1. The results obtained from causality tests show that COVID-19 new cases Granger cause to coffee, sugar, cotton, corn, and soybean prices while COVID-19 new cases do not cause wheat and oats prices. It was also concluded that new deaths based on COVID-19 Granger cause to coffee, sugar, and cotton whereas COVID-19 new deaths do not cause to corn, soybean, wheat and oat prices.
Conclusion: In this study, time series analysis based on Toda-Yamamoto and Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality tests highlight that the COVID-19 total new cases and total new deaths in the world has predictive power to predict further prices of agricultural commodities. Therefore, in terms of health management, policy makers should give substantial significance to the implementation of COVID-19 related health policies and agricultural policies together during the COVID-19 pandemic period.

Keywords

Coronavirus, Public Health, Commodity Markets, Granger Causality

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