Is Health Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic a Cause of Agricultural Commodity Prices? New Evidences From Bootstrap Fourier Causality Test
COVID-19 Pandemisinin Sağlık Yönetimi Tarımsal Emtia Fiyatlarının bir Nedeni midir? Bootstrap Fourier Nedensellik Testinden Yeni Kanıtlar

Erdal Tanas KARAGÖL [1] , Mert AKYÜZ [2] , Çağın KARUL [3]


Aim: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have included negative consequences both in health management and economic life at national and international level. The aim of this research is to examine the causal relationship between COVID-19 pandemic and agricultural commodity prices for the world. Material and Methods: To this end, we employ Toda-Yamamoto and Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality tests for the period of January 24, 2020 to January 22, 2021. Before testing the causal relationship between variables, we apply augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Fourier ADF unit root tests to each series to determine maximum order of integration. Results: The findings show that all variables are stationary in their first difference and the maximum order of integration is determined as 1. The results obtained from causality tests show that COVID-19 new cases Granger cause to coffee, sugar, cotton, corn, and soybean prices while COVID-19 new cases do not cause wheat and oats prices. It was also concluded that new deaths based on COVID-19 Granger cause to coffee, sugar, and cotton whereas COVID-19 new deaths do not cause to corn, soybean, wheat and oat prices. Conclusion: In this study, time series analysis based on Toda-Yamamoto and Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality tests highlight that the COVID-19 total new cases and total new deaths in the world has predictive power to predict further prices of agricultural commodities. Therefore, in terms of health management, policy makers should give substantial significance to the implementation of COVID-19 related health policies and agricultural policies together during the COVID-19 pandemic period.
Amaç: Koronavirüs hastalığı 2019 (coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19) pandemisi ulusal ve uluslararası düzeyde hem sağlık yönetiminde hem de ekonomik hayatta olumsuz sonuçlar doğurmuştur. Bu araştırmanın amacı, COVID-19 salgını ile dünya için tarımsal emtia fiyatları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini incelemektir. Gereç ve Yöntemler: Bu amaçla, 24 Ocak 2020 - 22 Ocak 2021 dönemi için Toda-Yamamoto ve Fourier Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testleri kullanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini test etmeden önce, maksimum entegrasyon derecesini belirlemek için her bir seriye augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) ve Fourier ADF birim kök testleri uygulanmıştır. Bulgular: Bulgular, tüm değişkenlerin ilk farklarında durağan olduğunu ve maksimum entegrasyon derecesinin 1 olarak belirlendiğini göstermiştir. Nedensellik testlerinden elde edilen sonuçlar, COVID-19 yeni vakalarının kahve, şeker, pamuk, mısır ve soya fiyatlarının Granger nedeni olduğunu gösterirken COVID-19’a bağlı yeni vakaların buğday ve yulaf fiyatlarının Granger nedeni olmadığını göstermiştir. Ayrıca COVID-19’a bağlı yeni ölümler kahve, şeker ve pamuk fiyatlarının Granger nedeni olurken COVID-19 ölümlerinin ise mısır, soya fasulyesi, buğday ve yulaf fiyatlarının Granger nedeni olmadığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Sonuç: Bu çalışmada, Toda-Yamamoto ve Fourier Toda Yamamoto nedensellik testlerine dayalı zaman serisi analizi dünyadaki COVID-19 toplam yeni vakalarının ve toplam yeni ölümlerin tarımsal emtia fiyatlarını tahmin etme gücüne sahip olduğunu vurgulamaktadır. Bu nedenle sağlık yönetimi açısından politika yapıcılar, COVID-19 pandemisi döneminde COVID-19 ile ilgili sağlık politikaları ve tarım politikalarının birlikte uygulanmasına büyük önem vermelidir.
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Primary Language en
Subjects Medicine
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Orcid: 0000-0003-0803-4064
Author: Erdal Tanas KARAGÖL
Institution: ANKARA YILDIRIM BEYAZIT UNIVERSITY
Country: Turkey


Orcid: 0000-0002-2322-3384
Author: Mert AKYÜZ (Primary Author)
Institution: ANKARA YILDIRIM BEYAZIT UNIVERSITY
Country: Turkey


Orcid: 0000-0002-5856-930X
Author: Çağın KARUL
Institution: PAMUKKALE UNIVERSITY
Country: Turkey


Dates

Publication Date : March 30, 2021

Bibtex @research article { dtfd879572, journal = {Duzce Medical Journal}, issn = {}, eissn = {1307-671X}, address = {}, publisher = {Duzce University}, year = {2021}, volume = {23}, pages = {86 - 93}, doi = {10.18678/dtfd.879572}, title = {Is Health Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic a Cause of Agricultural Commodity Prices? New Evidences From Bootstrap Fourier Causality Test}, key = {cite}, author = {Karagöl, Erdal Tanas and Akyüz, Mert and Karul, Çağın} }
APA Karagöl, E , Akyüz, M , Karul, Ç . (2021). Is Health Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic a Cause of Agricultural Commodity Prices? New Evidences From Bootstrap Fourier Causality Test . Duzce Medical Journal , 23 (Special Issue) , 86-93 . DOI: 10.18678/dtfd.879572
MLA Karagöl, E , Akyüz, M , Karul, Ç . "Is Health Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic a Cause of Agricultural Commodity Prices? New Evidences From Bootstrap Fourier Causality Test" . Duzce Medical Journal 23 (2021 ): 86-93 <https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/dtfd/issue/60535/879572>
Chicago Karagöl, E , Akyüz, M , Karul, Ç . "Is Health Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic a Cause of Agricultural Commodity Prices? New Evidences From Bootstrap Fourier Causality Test". Duzce Medical Journal 23 (2021 ): 86-93
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Is Health Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic a Cause of Agricultural Commodity Prices? New Evidences From Bootstrap Fourier Causality Test AU - Erdal Tanas Karagöl , Mert Akyüz , Çağın Karul Y1 - 2021 PY - 2021 N1 - doi: 10.18678/dtfd.879572 DO - 10.18678/dtfd.879572 T2 - Duzce Medical Journal JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 86 EP - 93 VL - 23 IS - Special Issue SN - -1307-671X M3 - doi: 10.18678/dtfd.879572 UR - https://doi.org/10.18678/dtfd.879572 Y2 - 2021 ER -
EndNote %0 Düzce Tıp Fakültesi Dergisi Is Health Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic a Cause of Agricultural Commodity Prices? New Evidences From Bootstrap Fourier Causality Test %A Erdal Tanas Karagöl , Mert Akyüz , Çağın Karul %T Is Health Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic a Cause of Agricultural Commodity Prices? New Evidences From Bootstrap Fourier Causality Test %D 2021 %J Duzce Medical Journal %P -1307-671X %V 23 %N Special Issue %R doi: 10.18678/dtfd.879572 %U 10.18678/dtfd.879572
ISNAD Karagöl, Erdal Tanas , Akyüz, Mert , Karul, Çağın . "Is Health Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic a Cause of Agricultural Commodity Prices? New Evidences From Bootstrap Fourier Causality Test". Duzce Medical Journal 23 / Special Issue (March 2021): 86-93 . https://doi.org/10.18678/dtfd.879572
AMA Karagöl E , Akyüz M , Karul Ç . Is Health Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic a Cause of Agricultural Commodity Prices? New Evidences From Bootstrap Fourier Causality Test. Duzce Medical Journal. 2021; 23(Special Issue): 86-93.
Vancouver Karagöl E , Akyüz M , Karul Ç . Is Health Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic a Cause of Agricultural Commodity Prices? New Evidences From Bootstrap Fourier Causality Test. Duzce Medical Journal. 2021; 23(Special Issue): 86-93.
IEEE E. Karagöl , M. Akyüz and Ç. Karul , "Is Health Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic a Cause of Agricultural Commodity Prices? New Evidences From Bootstrap Fourier Causality Test", Duzce Medical Journal, vol. 23, no. Special Issue, pp. 86-93, Mar. 2021, doi:10.18678/dtfd.879572