TÜRKİYE’DE DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLAR, FİNANSAL GELİŞME VE ELEKTRİK TÜKETİMİ ARASINDAKİ BAĞLANTININ İNCELENMESİ

Year 2024, , 794 - 818, 30.11.2024

Nigar Alev , Muhyettin Erdemli

https://doi.org/10.53092/duiibfd.1401352

Abstract

Doğrudan yabancı yatırım ile elektrik tüketimi arasındaki ilişki, ekonomi literatüründe incelenen ve herhangi bir ülkenin ekonomik ve sosyal gelişimi için özellikle önem taşıyan bir konudur. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ile elektrik tüketimi, ekonomik büyüme ve finansal gelişme arasındaki ilişki araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada, Türkiye Merkez Bankası’ndan alınan, 2016q1’den 2023q2’ye kadar uzanan zaman serisi verileri kullanılmıştır. Analizler Otoregresif Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Sınır Testi (ARDL) ve Granger nedensellik yaklaşımıyla gerçekleştirilmiştir. ARDL analiz sonuçları elektrik tüketimi, doğrudan yabancı yatırım, finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun vadeli bir ilişki olduğuna dair kanıtlar sunmuştur. Uzun dönem bulguları elektrik tüketimi ile doğrudan yabancı yatırım ve ekonomik büyüme arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı pozitif ilişkiyi ortaya koyarken, finansal gelişme ile elektrik tüketimi arasında anlamlı bir ilişki bulunamamıştır. Granger nedensellik analizinden elektrik tüketimi ile ekonomik büyüme arasında çift yönlü, elektrik tüketimi ile finansal gelişme arasında çift yönlü ve elektrik tüketimi ile doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar arasında tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, Türkiye’de doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, ekonomik büyüme ve finansal gelişmedeki iyileşmeler elektrik tüketimine olumlu yansımaktadır.

Keywords

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar, Elektrik Tüketimi, Finansal Gelişme, ARDL, Granger Nedensellik

INVESTIGATION OF THE CONNECTION BETWEEN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS, FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN TURKEY

Abstract

The relationship between foreign direct investment and electricity consumption is a topic studied in the economic literature and is of particular importance for the economic and social development of any country. In this study, the relationship of foreign direct investments with electricity consumption, economic growth and financial development in Turkey was investigated. In the study, time series data extending from 2016: q1 to 2022: q2 received from the Central Bank of Turkey were used. Analyzes were performed with autoregressive distributed lag test (ARDL) and Granger causality approach. ARDL analysis results provided evidence of a long-term relationship between electricity consumption, foreign direct investment, financial development and economic growth. While long-term findings reveal a statistically significant positive relationship between electricity consumption and foreign direct investment and economic growth, no significant relationship was found between financial development and electricity consumption. From Granger causality analysis, there is a bidirectional relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth; A bidirectional causality relationship was found between electricity consumption and financial development, and a unidirectional causality relationship between electricity consumption and foreign direct investments. As a result, improvements in foreign direct investments, economic growth and financial development in Turkey have a positive impact on electricity consumption.

Keywords

Foreign Direct Investments, Electricity Consumption, Financial Development, ARDL, Granger Causality

References

• Abidin, I. S. Z., Haseeb, M., Azam, M. & Islam, R. (2015). Foreign direct investment, financial development, international trade and energy consumption: Panel data evidence from selected ASEAN countries. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 5(3), 841-850.
• Acaravcı, A. & Bostan, F. (2010). Makroekonomik değişkenlerin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerine etkileri: Türkiye ekonomisi için ampirik bir çalışma. Çag University Journal of Social Sciences, 8(2), 56-68.
• Acaravcı, A. & Akyol, M. (2017). Türkiye’de doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, dış ticaret ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 3 (1), 17-33.
• Ağır, H. & Kar, M. (2010), Türkiye’de elektrik tüketimi ve ekonomik gelişmişlik düzeyi ilişkisi: Yatay kesit analizi. Sosyo Ekonomi, Özel Sayı, 149-176.
• Ağır, H. & Rutbil, M. (2019). Türkiye’de doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi. Maliye Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(3), 287-299.
• Apergis, N. & Payne, J. E. (2011). A dynamic panel study of economic development and the electricity consumption-growth nexus. Energy Economics, 33, 770-781.
• Alev, N. & Erdemli, M. (2019). Elektrik enerjisi tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Avrupa Birliği ülkeleri ve Türkiye için bir analiz. ASSAM Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi, 6(15), 88-111.
• Altıntaş, H. (2013). Türkiye’de birincil enerji tüketimi, karbondioksit emisyonu ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik analizi. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 8(1), 263-294.
• Atchike, D., Zhao, Z. Y. & Bao, G. (2020), The relationship between electricity consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth: case of Benin. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(4), 507-515.
• Aydın, M. (2019). Renewable and non-renewable electricity consumption–economic growth nexus: evidence from OECD Countries. Renewable Energy, 136, 599-606.
• Baum, C. F. (2003). A review of Stata 8.1 and its time series capabilities. Working Papers Economics 23.
• Batmaz, T. ve Yürük, B. (2023). Türkiye’de doğrudan yabancı yatırımların belirleyicileri üzerine ampirik bir analiz: ARDL sınır testi (1990-2020). Optimum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 10(1), 99-124.
• Bayraç, H. N. & Doğan, E. (2015). Türkiye’de enerji tüketiminin ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkileri: Markov Switching yaklaşımı. EY International Congres on Economics II Growth, Inequality and Poverty, Düzenleyen: Gazi Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. İktisat Bölümü, Ankara
• Çetin, M. & Şeker, F. (2012). Enerji tüketiminin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 31 (1), 85-106.
• Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. J. Am. Stat. Assoc, 74, 427–431.
• Dube, S. (2009). Foreign direct investment and electricity consumption on economic growth: Evidence from South Africa. Economia Internazionale / International Economics, 62(2), 175-200.
• Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: J. Econom. Soc., 251–276.
• Fan, W. ve Hao, Y. (2020). An empirical research on the relationship amongst renewable energy consumption, economic growth and foreign direct investment in China. Renewable Energy.146, 598-609.
• Grabara, J., Tleppayev, A., Dabylova, M., Mihardjo, L.W. & DackoPikiewicz, Z. (2021). Empirical research on the relationship amongst renewable energy consumption, economic growth and foreign direct investment in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Energies, 14(2), 3-22.
• Haug, A. A. (2002). Temporal Aggregation and the Power of Cointegration Tests: A Monte Carlo Study. Available at SSRN 334965.
• Husaini, D. H. & Lean, H. H. (2015). Does electricity drive the development of manufacturing sector in Malaysia? Frontiers in Energy Research, 3(18), 1-7.
• Hussain, S. & Yu, C. (2021). Relationship between power energy consumption, fdi and economic growth: A case study of Pakistan. International Journal of Economics and Management Science, 10(7), 599.
• Ibrahiem, D. M. (2015). Renewable electricity consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth in Egypt: An ARDL approach. Procedia Economics and Finance, 30(2015), 313-323.
• İbrahim, T. R. ve Akınbobolat, T. O. (2017). Foreign portfolio investment and economic growth in Nigeria democratic settings. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 8(5), 33-52.
• Kang, X., Khan, F. U., Ullah, R., Arif, M., Rehman, S. U. & Ullah, F. (2021). Does foreign direct investment influence renewable energy consumption? Empirical evidence from south Asian countries. Energies, 14(12), 3470. https://doi.org/ 10.3390/en14123470
• Khandker, L. L., Amin, S. B. & Khan, F. (2018). Renewable energy consumption and foreign direct investment: Reports from Bangladesh. Journal of Accounting, Finance and Economics, 8(3), 72-87.
• Komal, R. & Abbas, F. (2015). Linking financial development, economic growth and energy consumption in Pakistan. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 44(2015), 211-220.
• Köprücü, Y. (2017). Doğrudan yabancı yatırımların teknolojik yayılma ve ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 15(30), 105- 122.
• Klein, M. & Olivei, G. (2008). Capital account liberalization, financial depth, and economic growth. Journal of International Money and Finance, 27(6), 861-875.
• Latief, R. & Lefen, L. (2019). Foreign direct investment in the power and energy sector, energy consumption, and economic growth: empirical evidence from Pakistan. Sustainability, 11(1), 192.
• Levine, R. (2003). More on finance and growth: More finance, more growth? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 85, 31-46.
• Lee, J. W. (2013). The contribution of foreign direct investment to clean energy use, carbon emissions and economic growth. Energy Policy, 55, 483-489.
• Le, H. P. & Oztürk, I. (2020). The impacts of globalization, financial development, government expenditures, and institutional quality on CO 2 emissions in the presence of environmental Kuznets curve. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27 (2020), 22680-22697.
• Lu, J., Imran, M., Haseeb, A., Saud, S., Wu, M., Siddiqui, F. & Khan, M. J (2021). Nexus between financial development, fdi, globalization, energy consumption and environment: Evidence from BRI countries. Frontiers in Energy Research. 9:707590. doi: 10.3389/fenrg.2021.707590
• Mercan, M. & Peker, O. (2013). Finansal gelişmenin ekonomik büyümeye etkisi: Ekonometrik bir analiz. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 8(1), 93-120
• Minh Ha, N. & Ngoc, B.H. (2023). Spatial relationship between financial development, energy consumption and economic growth in emerging markets. International Journal of Emerging Markets, https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOEM-10-2020-1207
• Omri, A. (2013). CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth nexus in MENA countries: Evidence from simultaneous equations models. Energy Economics, 40(C), 657-664.
• Omri, A. & Kahouli, B. (2014). Causal relationships between energy consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth: Fresh evidence from dynamic simultaneous-equations models. Energy Policy, (67), 913-922.
• Olaoye, O. P. (2020). Energy consumption and foreign direct investment inflows in Nigeria: An empirical perspective. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10, 491-496.
• Osman, M. Gachino, G. & Hoque, A. (2016). Electricity consumption and economic growth in the GCC countries: Panel data analysis. Energy Policy, 98, 318-327.
• Okuyan, H.A. & Erbaykal, E. (2007). Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 19 (67), 47-58.
• Pao, H. T. & Fu, H. C. (2013). Renewable energy, non-renewable energy and economic growth in Brazil. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 25, 381-392.
• Paramati, S. R., Ummalla, M. & Apergis, N. (2016). The effect of foreign direct investment and stock market growth on clean energy use across a panel of emerging market economies. Energy Economics, 56, 29-41.
• Patrick, H. T. (1966). Financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14, 174–189.
• Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica: J. Econom. Soc. 1361–1401.
• Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y. (1995). An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. DAE Working Paper Series No. 9514, Department of Economics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge.
• Phillips, P.C. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75, 335–346.
• Saatçi, M. & Dumrul, Y. (2013). Elektrik tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin dinamik bir analizi: Türkiye örneği. Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 32(2), 1-24.
• Salim, R., Yao, Y., Chen, G. & Zhang, L. (2017). Can foreign direct investment harness energy consumption in China? A time series investigation. Energy Economics, 66, 43-53.
• Sadorsky, P. (2010). The impact of financial development on energy consumption in emerging economies. Energy Policy, 38, 2528-2535.
• Saidi, K. & Hammami, S. (2015). The impact of CO2 emissions and economic growth on energy consumption in 58 countries. Energy Reports, 1(C), 62-70.
• Safyanullah, K., Ahmad, K. A. & Sufyan Ali, M. A. (2022). Does emission of carbon dioxide is impacted by urbanization? An empirical study of urbanization, energy consumption, economic growth and carbon emissions- Using ARDL bound testing approach. Energy Policy, 164, 1-9.
• Sbia, R., Shahbaz, M. & Hamdi, H. (2014). A contribution of foreign direct investment, clean energy, trade openness, carbon emissions and economic growth to energy demand in UAE. Economic Modelling, 36, 191-197.
• Shahbaz, M. Van, T. H., Kumar, M. & Roubaud, D. (2017). Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis. Energy Economics, 63, 199-212.
• Şenalp, B. (2019). FDI and economic growth: The role of economic freedom. Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 6(1), 54-73.
• T.C. Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanlığı (2023). Enerji raporu. enerji.gov.tr, Erişim Tarihi: 10.10.2023
• Toda, H. Y. & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inferences in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
• Usta, C. & Berber, M. (2017). Türkiye’de enerji tüketimi ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin sektörel analizi. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 13(1), 173-187.
• Wahyudi, H. & Palupi, W. A. (2023). Relationship between energy consumption, foreign direct ınvestment, and labor force participation using the vecm model: Empirical study in OECD countries. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 13(2), 157-165.
• Yücel, F. (2009). Causal relationships between financial development, trade openness and economic growth: the case of Turkey. Journal of Social Sciences, 5(1), 33-42.
• Zaman, K., Khan, M.M., Ahmad, M. & Rustam, R. (2012). Determinants of electricity consumption function in Pakistan: Old wine in a new bottle. Energy Policy, 50, 623-634.
• Zeeshan, M. (2021). Nexus between foreign direct investment, energy consumption, natural resource, and economic growth in Latin American countries. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, 11, 407-416.
• Zivot, E. & Andrews, D.W. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 10.
• T.C. Sanayi ve Teknoloji Bakanlığı (2024). https://www.sanayi.gov.tr/istatistikler/yatirim-istatistikleri/mi0803011615