AB'NİN RASFF BİLDİRİMLERİNİN TÜRKİYE’NİN İHRACATI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: KURU VE TAZE İNCİR ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

Ülkeler, dış ticaretlerini kısıtlamak için gümrük vergilerinin yanı sıra birçok tarife dışı önleme başvurmaktadır. Özellikle halk sağlığı ve çevrenin korunması gibi tarife dışı önlemler yoluyla tarım ürünlerinin dış ticaretini kısıtlamakta veya engellemektedirler. Avrupa Birliği, halk sağlığını korumak ve üye ülkeler arasında iletişimi etkin bir şekilde koordine etmek için RASFF sistemini kurmuştur. RASFF sistemi, ithal edilen tarım ürünlerinde halk sağlığını tehdit eden risklerin tespit edilmesi durumunda üye devletlere bildirimler göndererek onları uyarmaktadır. Türkiye, dünyanın en büyük kuru ve taze incir ihracatçısıdır ve AB, Türkiye'nin önemli pazarlarından biridir. AB ülkeleri de Türkiye'den ithal ettikleri kuru ve taze incirlerle ilgili RASFF bildirimleri yayınlamaktadır. Bu bildirimler dış ticaret açısından görünmez engel oluşturabilir. Bu çalışma, 1999 ile 2024 yılları arasında AB tarafından yayınlanan RASFF bildirimlerinin Türkiye'nin kuru ve taze incir ihracatı üzerindeki etkisini ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlara göre, RASFF ve bir yıl gecikmeli RASFF değişkenleri pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır, ancak iki yıl gecikmeli RASFF istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değildir. Bu sonuçları, RASFF bildirimlerinin, piyasadaki tüm paydaşlar için kısa vadeli bir uyarı etkisi olarak yorumlamak mümkündür. Ayrıca, reel döviz kuru ve GSYİH değişkenleri de pozitif ve anlamlıdır.

Keywords

• Tarife Dışı Engeller
• İhracat
• Avrupa Birliği

THE EFFECT OF THE EU'S RASFF NOTIFICATIONS ON TÜRKIYE’S EXPORTS: THE CASE OF DRIED AND FRESH FIGS

Abstract

Countries use many non-tariff measures besides tariffs to restrict their foreign trade. Countries restrict or hinder the foreign trade of agricultural products, particularly through non-tariff measures such as public health and environmental protection. The European Union established the RASFF system to protect public health and effectively coordinate communication among its members. The RASFF system notifies and alerts member states upon detecting public health risks in imported agricultural products. Türkiye is the world's largest exporter of dried and fresh figs, and the EU is one of Türkiye’s important markets. The EU countries also issue RASFF notifications regarding dried and fresh figs they import from Türkiye, and these notifications may be an invisible barrier to trade. This study aims to reveal the impact of RASFF notifications issued by the EU between 1999 and 2024 on Türkiye's dried and fresh fig exports. According to the results obtained from the study, the RASFF variable and one-year lagged RASFF variables are positive and statistically significant; however, the two-year lagged RASFF is statistically insignificant. These results can be interpreted as a short-term warning effect of the RASFF notifications for all stakeholders in the market. In addition, the real exchange rate and GDP variables are also positive and significant.

Keywords

• Non-Tariff Measures
• Export
• European Union

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