REEXAMINING THE TOURISM – GDP NEXUS IN TURKEY: A BAYESIAN PERSPECTIVE

Abstract

Tourism sector is an important revenue, exchange and employment source for economies thanks to its forward and backward linkages. Due to these multifaceted impacts, countries are striving to develop the tourism sector and achieve a competitive advantage. Since the 1980s, Turkey has invested in the tourism sector by adopting a tourism-led growth strategy, and consequently that has become one of the world's leading destinations. 1.1 million tourist came to Turkey in 1980 and revenues of $ 0.327 billion was created. In 2018, the number of tourists increased to 45.8 million and tourism revenue to $ 34.5 billion. The strengthening of global tourism flows in time and the fact that the tourism sector became important for the economies led to an expansion in the analysis of the economic effects of the tourism sector. Most of the empirical studies on the subject are constitute from the demand function estimation and the effect of tourism on economic growth. In the available studies, classical (frequency) inference is the standard method has been applied. There has been no study in which Bayesian inference approach has been applied, which has become increasingly popular in recent years. This study aims to contribute to the literature by considering the impact of tourism on GDP in a Bayesian framework. The findings show that this relation is sensitive to the form of the prior distribution used. While a non-informative (Jeffrey’s type) prior distribution is used, it is seen that tourism has enhancing effect on the GDP, but no significant effect is observed when inverted-gamma and multivariate prior distribution is used.

Keywords

• Tourism
• growth
• GDP
• Bayesian Analysis

REEXAMINING THE TOURISM – GDP NEXUS IN TURKEY: A BayesIan PERSPECTIVE

Abstract

Turizm sektörü, sahip olduğu ileri ve geri bağlantılar sayesinde ekonomiler için önemli bir gelir, döviz ve istihdam kaynağıdır. Bu çok yönlü etkileri nedeniyle ülkeler turizm sektörünü geliştirmek ve rekabet avantajı elde etmek için çabalamaktadırlar. Türkiye de, özellikle 1980’lerden itibaren turizme dayalı büyüme stratejisini benimseyerek sektöre büyük yatırımlar yapmış, bunun sonucunda da dünyanın önde gelen destinasyonlarından biri haline gelmiştir. 1980’de Türkiye’ye gelen 1,1 milyon turist 0,327 milyar $ gelir yaratırken 2018 yılında turist sayısı 45,8 milyona ve turizm geliri ise 34,5 milyar $’a yükselmiştir. Küresel turizm akımlarının zaman içinde oldukça güçlenmesi ve turizm sektörünün ekonomiler için önemli hale gelmesi, turizm sektörünün ekonomik etkilerine yönelik analizlerde de bir genişlemeye neden olmuştur. Konuyla ilgili ampirik çalışmaların çoğunu talep fonksiyonu tahmini ve turizmin büyümeye etkisi oluşturmaktadır. Mevcut çalışmalarda yöntemsel olarak hep klasik (frekansçı) çıkarsama yaklaşımına başvurulmuştur. Son yıllarda giderek daha popüler hale gelen Bayesyen çıkarsama yaklaşımının kullanıldığı bir çalışma bulunmamaktadır. Bu çalışma, turizmin GSYH’ye etkisini Bayesyen bir çerçevede ele alarak literatüre katkıda bulunmayı amaçlamaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, sözkonusu ilişkinin kullanılan önsel dağılımın biçimine karşı duyarlı olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bilgi vermeyen (Jeffrey tipi) önsel dağılım kullanıldığında turizmin GSYH’yi artırıcı etkide bulunduğu görülürken, ters-gamma ve çok değişkenli önsel dağılım kullanıldığında anlamlı bir etki görülmemektedir.

Keywords

• GSYH
• Bayesyen analiz
• Turizm
• Büyüme

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