FOSİL YAKITLARA VERİLEN SÜBVANSİYONLARIN SOSYAL VE EKONOMİK ETKİLERİ: OECD ÜLKELERİ İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ

Abstract

Ekonomide yönlendirici rol üstlenen kamu mali politikaları, uzun yıllar etkileri düşünülmeden uygulana gelmiştir. Fakat son dönemde oluşan küresel farkındalıkla birlikte, ülkelerin en önemli ara mallarından biri olan enerji ve bununla ilgili olarak fosil yakıtlara verilen sübvansiyonlar ekonomik etkinliği bozucu kabul edilip ciddi eleştiri konusu olmuştur. Bu bağlamda 25 OECD ülkesine ait 2000-2019 yıllık panel verileri kullanılarak Ortak İlişkili Etkiler Ortalama Grup (CCEMG) yöntemi ile ampirik analiz yapılmış ve fosil yakıtlar için verilen devlet sübvansiyonlarının uzun dönem iktisadi ve sosyal etkileri tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen katsayı tahminlerine göre fosil yakıtlar için sağlanan devlet sübvansiyonlarının gayrisafi yurtiçi hâsıla (GSYİH) üzerinde pozitif etki oluşturduğu ancak bununla beraber işsizliği artırıcı sonuçlarının olduğu ortaya konmuştur. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre fosil yakıtlara verilen toplam sübvansiyonlarda meydana gelecek %1'lik bir artış GSYİH'yı %0.04 ve işsizliği ise %0.03 oranında artıracaktır.

Keywords

• Fosil Yakıt Sübvansiyonları
• Bozucu Sübvansiyonlar
• Ortak İlişkili Etkiler Ortalama Grup (CCEMG)

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SUBSIDIES TO FOSSIL FUELS: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR OECD COUNTRIES

Abstract

Public fiscal policies, which play a leading role in the economy, have been implemented for many years without considering their effects. However, with the recent global awareness, energy, one of the most important intermediate goods of the countries, and the related subsidies given to fossil fuels have been accepted as disrupting the economic efficiency and have been seriously criticized. In this context, using the 2000-2019year panel data from 25 OECD countries, an empirical analysis was made with the Common Associated Effects Average Group (CCEMG) Method and the long-term economic and social effects of government subsidies for fossil fuels were estimated. According to the coefficient estimates obtained, it has been revealed that the government subsidies provided for fossil fuels have a positive effect on GDP, but they also have unemployment-increasing consequences. According to the results, an increase of 1% in total subsidies for fossil fuels will increase GDP by 0.04% and unemployment by 0.03%.

Keywords

• Fossil Fuel Subsidies
• Perverse Subsidies
• Common Associated Effects Average Group (CCEMG).

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