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2000 SONRASININ TÜRKİYE’SİNDE DALGALANMA KORKUSU

Year 2017, Volume: 7 Issue: 14, 265 - 291, 26.12.2017

Abstract

Türkiye, 2000 ve 2001’de yaşadığı finansal krizlerin ardından, sabit döviz kuru rejimini terk ederek 2002’de
enflasyon hedeflemesi rejimini kabul etmiş ve buna bağlı olarak da döviz kurunu serbest dalgalanmaya
bırakmıştır. Calvo ve Reinhart’a göre (2002) dalgalı kur rejimi uyguladığını söyleyen ülkelerin birçoğu aslında
“dalgalanma korkusu” olgusu yaşamakta ve bu yüzden de döviz kuruna müdahale etmektedirler.
Bu çalışmanın amacı, enflasyon hedeflemesi dönemi boyunca Türkiye’de dalgalanma korkusunun olup
olmadığını araştırmak ve dalgalanma korkusu var ise bunun temel nedenlerini ortaya koymaktır. 

References

  • Aghion, Philippe, Philippe Bacchetta, Abhijit Banerjee (2000) “Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in a Economy with Credid Constraints” https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/staffp/2000/00-00/ab.pdf (Erişim: 07.08.2017)
  • Akbakay, Zeki, (2016) Dünyada ve Türkiye’de Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Politikaları ve Türkiye Uygulamasının Etkinliği,Basılmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Diyarbakır: Dicle Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Akçelik, Yasin; Ergun Ermişoğlu, Arif Oduncu, Temel Taşkın (2012) “Ek Parasal Sıkılaştırma’nın Döviz Kurları Üzerindeki Etkisi”, TCMB Ekonomi Notları, Sayı: 30/23.
  • Allen, Mark, Christoph Rosenberg, Christian Keller, Brad Setser, Nouriel Roubini (2002) “A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis”, IMF Working Paper, No.210.
  • Bacchetta, Philippe (2000) “Monetary Policy with Foreign Currency Debt”, Working Paper, Study Center Gerzensee, No. 00.03
  • Bağış, Bilal (2016) “Döviz Kuru Sistemleri”, içinde, (Ed.) N. Eroğlu, H. Dinçer, U.Hacıoğlu, Uluslararası Finans: Teori ve Politika, (359-406), Ankara: Orion Kitabevi.
  • Ball, Christopher P.,JavierReyes (2008), “Inflation Targeting or Fear Of Floating in Disguise? A BroaderPerspective”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 30, s.308–326
  • Ball, Laurace (1999) “Policy Rules For Open Economies”, içinde, (Ed) John B. Taylor, Monetary Policy Rules Monetary Policy Rules, (127-156), University of Chicago Press.
  • Baqueiro, Armando, Alejandro Díaz de LeónandAlbertoTorres (2003) BIS Papers No.19 s.338-355 Başçı, Erdem, Hakan Kara (2011) “Finansal İstikrar ve Para Politikası”, TCMB Çalışma Tebliği, NO: 11/08,
  • Blinder, Alan S.(1999) “Central Bank Crediblity: Why Do We Care? How Do We Built It?’”NBER Working Paper No. 7161,
  • Calvo, Guilermo A. (2006) “Monetary Policy Challenges in Emerging Markets: Sudden Stop, Liability Dollarization, and Lender of Last Resort”, NBER Working Paper No. 12788.
  • Carranza, Luis, Jose E. Galdon-Sanchez, Javier Gomez-Biscarri (2009) “Exchange Rate andInflation Dynamics in Dollarized Economies”, Journal of Development Economics 89, s.98-108.
  • Cavoli, Tony (2009) “Is Fear of Floating Justified? The East Asia Experience”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 31, s.1-16
  • Değerli, Ahmet Salih Fendoğlu, (2013) “Reserve Option Mechanism as a Stabilizing PolicyTool: Evidencefrom Exchange Rate Expectations”, CBRT Working Paper, No.13/28.
  • Edwards, Sebastian (1992) “Exchange Rates As Nominal Anchor”, NBER Working Paper, No:4246. Edwards, Sebastian (2006) “The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited” NBER Working Paper, No.12163.
  • Eichengreen vd.(2005) (sayfası yok)
  • Eichengreen, Barry (2002) “Can Emerging Markets Float? Should They Inflation Target?” Banco Central Do Brasil Working Paper, No.36, s.1-49
  • Eichengreen, Barry, Ricardo Hausmann (1999) “Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility”, NBER Working Paper, 7418.
  • Fisher, Stanley (2001) “Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15/(2), s.3-24
  • Frankel, Jeffrey A. (2005) “Contractionary Currency Crashes In Developing Countries” NBER Working Paper No.11508.
  • Gagnon, Joseph E.,JaneIhrig (2004) Internatıonal Journal of Fınance and Economıcs, 9, s.315-338.
  • Goldfajn, Ilan, Gino Olivares (2001) “Can Flexible Exchange Rates Still “Work” in Financially Open Economies?”, G-24 Discussion Paper, No.8.
  • Guillremo A. Calvo and Carmen M. Reinhart (2000) “Fear of Floating’, NBER Working Paper No.7993
  • Hausmann, Ricardo, Ugo Panizza, Ernesto Stein (2001a) “Why Do Countries Float The Way They Float?”, Journal of Development Economics, 66, s.387–414.
  • Hausmann, Ricardo, Ugo Panizza, ErnestoStein (2001b) “Original Sin, Pass through, and Fear of Floating” https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228692710 (Erişim: 20.08.2010).
  • Hunt, Benjaminve Peter Isard (2003) “Some Implication for Monetary Policy of Uncertain Exchange Rate Pass-Thtough” IMF Working Paper, No.25.
  • IMF (2016) Annual Report on Exchange Rate Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions, Washington. Jeanne, Oliver ve DharlesWyplosz (2001) “International Lender of Last Resort: How Large Is Large Enough” IMF Working Paper, No.176.
  • Kara,A. Hakan (2012) “Küresel Kriz Sonrası Para Politikası”, TCMB Çalışma Tebliği No:12/17
  • Küçüksaraç, Doruk, Özgür Özel (2012) “Rezerv Opsiyonu Mekanizması ve Optimal Rezerv Opsiyonu Katsayılarının Hesaplanması” TCMB Çalışma Tebliği No:12/32.
  • LevyYeyati E.,FedericoSturzeneger (2005) “Classifying Exchange Rate Regimes: Deeds vs. Words” European Economic Review 49, s.1603 – 1635
  • Lin,Shu(2010) “On the International Effects of Inflation Targeting”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92/(1), s.195-199
  • Mishkin,Frederic S. (2004) ‘Can Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Market Countries?’, NBER Working Paper No. 10646.
  • NogueiraJr. Reginaldo P. Miguel A. León-Ledesma (2009) “Fear of Floating in Brazil: Did Inflation Targeting Matter?” North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 20, s.255–266.
  • Oduncu, Arif, Yasin Akçelik, Ergun Ermişoğlu vd., (2013) “Reserve Options Mechanism and FX Volatility” CBRT Working Paper No:13/03.
  • Petursson, ‘Thórarinn G. (2009) “Does Inflation Targeting Lead To Excessive Exchange Rate Volatility?” Central Bank of Iceland WorkingPaper, No.43.
  • Rose, Andrew K. (2006) “A Stable International Monetary System Emerges: Inflation Targeting is Bretton Woods, Reversed” NBER Working Paper No.12711.
  • Schwards, Anna J. (2000) “The Rise and Fall of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention as A PolicyTool” , NBER Working Paper No.7751.
  • Taylor, John B. (2000) “Low Inflation, Pass-Through, and The Pricing Power Of Firms”, European Economic Review, 44, s.1389-1408
  • TCMB, (2013) “Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması”, www. tcmb.gov.tr (Erişim: 15.07.2017)
  • TCMB, (2017) Finansal İstikrar Raporu-Mayıs 2017 sayı 24,
  • http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TCMB+TR/TCMB+TR/Main+Menu/Yayinlar/Raporlar/Fi nansal+Istikrar+Raporu/2017/Sayi+24/ (erişim: 21.08.2017).
  • Zulfiqar, Hyder, Sardar Shah (2004) “Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Pakistan”, State Bank Of Pakistan Working Paper No.5.
Year 2017, Volume: 7 Issue: 14, 265 - 291, 26.12.2017

Abstract

References

  • Aghion, Philippe, Philippe Bacchetta, Abhijit Banerjee (2000) “Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in a Economy with Credid Constraints” https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/staffp/2000/00-00/ab.pdf (Erişim: 07.08.2017)
  • Akbakay, Zeki, (2016) Dünyada ve Türkiye’de Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Politikaları ve Türkiye Uygulamasının Etkinliği,Basılmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Diyarbakır: Dicle Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Akçelik, Yasin; Ergun Ermişoğlu, Arif Oduncu, Temel Taşkın (2012) “Ek Parasal Sıkılaştırma’nın Döviz Kurları Üzerindeki Etkisi”, TCMB Ekonomi Notları, Sayı: 30/23.
  • Allen, Mark, Christoph Rosenberg, Christian Keller, Brad Setser, Nouriel Roubini (2002) “A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis”, IMF Working Paper, No.210.
  • Bacchetta, Philippe (2000) “Monetary Policy with Foreign Currency Debt”, Working Paper, Study Center Gerzensee, No. 00.03
  • Bağış, Bilal (2016) “Döviz Kuru Sistemleri”, içinde, (Ed.) N. Eroğlu, H. Dinçer, U.Hacıoğlu, Uluslararası Finans: Teori ve Politika, (359-406), Ankara: Orion Kitabevi.
  • Ball, Christopher P.,JavierReyes (2008), “Inflation Targeting or Fear Of Floating in Disguise? A BroaderPerspective”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 30, s.308–326
  • Ball, Laurace (1999) “Policy Rules For Open Economies”, içinde, (Ed) John B. Taylor, Monetary Policy Rules Monetary Policy Rules, (127-156), University of Chicago Press.
  • Baqueiro, Armando, Alejandro Díaz de LeónandAlbertoTorres (2003) BIS Papers No.19 s.338-355 Başçı, Erdem, Hakan Kara (2011) “Finansal İstikrar ve Para Politikası”, TCMB Çalışma Tebliği, NO: 11/08,
  • Blinder, Alan S.(1999) “Central Bank Crediblity: Why Do We Care? How Do We Built It?’”NBER Working Paper No. 7161,
  • Calvo, Guilermo A. (2006) “Monetary Policy Challenges in Emerging Markets: Sudden Stop, Liability Dollarization, and Lender of Last Resort”, NBER Working Paper No. 12788.
  • Carranza, Luis, Jose E. Galdon-Sanchez, Javier Gomez-Biscarri (2009) “Exchange Rate andInflation Dynamics in Dollarized Economies”, Journal of Development Economics 89, s.98-108.
  • Cavoli, Tony (2009) “Is Fear of Floating Justified? The East Asia Experience”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 31, s.1-16
  • Değerli, Ahmet Salih Fendoğlu, (2013) “Reserve Option Mechanism as a Stabilizing PolicyTool: Evidencefrom Exchange Rate Expectations”, CBRT Working Paper, No.13/28.
  • Edwards, Sebastian (1992) “Exchange Rates As Nominal Anchor”, NBER Working Paper, No:4246. Edwards, Sebastian (2006) “The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited” NBER Working Paper, No.12163.
  • Eichengreen vd.(2005) (sayfası yok)
  • Eichengreen, Barry (2002) “Can Emerging Markets Float? Should They Inflation Target?” Banco Central Do Brasil Working Paper, No.36, s.1-49
  • Eichengreen, Barry, Ricardo Hausmann (1999) “Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility”, NBER Working Paper, 7418.
  • Fisher, Stanley (2001) “Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15/(2), s.3-24
  • Frankel, Jeffrey A. (2005) “Contractionary Currency Crashes In Developing Countries” NBER Working Paper No.11508.
  • Gagnon, Joseph E.,JaneIhrig (2004) Internatıonal Journal of Fınance and Economıcs, 9, s.315-338.
  • Goldfajn, Ilan, Gino Olivares (2001) “Can Flexible Exchange Rates Still “Work” in Financially Open Economies?”, G-24 Discussion Paper, No.8.
  • Guillremo A. Calvo and Carmen M. Reinhart (2000) “Fear of Floating’, NBER Working Paper No.7993
  • Hausmann, Ricardo, Ugo Panizza, Ernesto Stein (2001a) “Why Do Countries Float The Way They Float?”, Journal of Development Economics, 66, s.387–414.
  • Hausmann, Ricardo, Ugo Panizza, ErnestoStein (2001b) “Original Sin, Pass through, and Fear of Floating” https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228692710 (Erişim: 20.08.2010).
  • Hunt, Benjaminve Peter Isard (2003) “Some Implication for Monetary Policy of Uncertain Exchange Rate Pass-Thtough” IMF Working Paper, No.25.
  • IMF (2016) Annual Report on Exchange Rate Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions, Washington. Jeanne, Oliver ve DharlesWyplosz (2001) “International Lender of Last Resort: How Large Is Large Enough” IMF Working Paper, No.176.
  • Kara,A. Hakan (2012) “Küresel Kriz Sonrası Para Politikası”, TCMB Çalışma Tebliği No:12/17
  • Küçüksaraç, Doruk, Özgür Özel (2012) “Rezerv Opsiyonu Mekanizması ve Optimal Rezerv Opsiyonu Katsayılarının Hesaplanması” TCMB Çalışma Tebliği No:12/32.
  • LevyYeyati E.,FedericoSturzeneger (2005) “Classifying Exchange Rate Regimes: Deeds vs. Words” European Economic Review 49, s.1603 – 1635
  • Lin,Shu(2010) “On the International Effects of Inflation Targeting”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92/(1), s.195-199
  • Mishkin,Frederic S. (2004) ‘Can Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Market Countries?’, NBER Working Paper No. 10646.
  • NogueiraJr. Reginaldo P. Miguel A. León-Ledesma (2009) “Fear of Floating in Brazil: Did Inflation Targeting Matter?” North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 20, s.255–266.
  • Oduncu, Arif, Yasin Akçelik, Ergun Ermişoğlu vd., (2013) “Reserve Options Mechanism and FX Volatility” CBRT Working Paper No:13/03.
  • Petursson, ‘Thórarinn G. (2009) “Does Inflation Targeting Lead To Excessive Exchange Rate Volatility?” Central Bank of Iceland WorkingPaper, No.43.
  • Rose, Andrew K. (2006) “A Stable International Monetary System Emerges: Inflation Targeting is Bretton Woods, Reversed” NBER Working Paper No.12711.
  • Schwards, Anna J. (2000) “The Rise and Fall of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention as A PolicyTool” , NBER Working Paper No.7751.
  • Taylor, John B. (2000) “Low Inflation, Pass-Through, and The Pricing Power Of Firms”, European Economic Review, 44, s.1389-1408
  • TCMB, (2013) “Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması”, www. tcmb.gov.tr (Erişim: 15.07.2017)
  • TCMB, (2017) Finansal İstikrar Raporu-Mayıs 2017 sayı 24,
  • http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TCMB+TR/TCMB+TR/Main+Menu/Yayinlar/Raporlar/Fi nansal+Istikrar+Raporu/2017/Sayi+24/ (erişim: 21.08.2017).
  • Zulfiqar, Hyder, Sardar Shah (2004) “Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Pakistan”, State Bank Of Pakistan Working Paper No.5.
There are 42 citations in total.

Details

Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Zeki Akbakay This is me

Publication Date December 26, 2017
Submission Date June 1, 2017
Acceptance Date July 1, 2017
Published in Issue Year 2017 Volume: 7 Issue: 14

Cite

APA Akbakay, Z. (2017). 2000 SONRASININ TÜRKİYE’SİNDE DALGALANMA KORKUSU. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(14), 265-291.
AMA Akbakay Z. 2000 SONRASININ TÜRKİYE’SİNDE DALGALANMA KORKUSU. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. November 2017;7(14):265-291.
Chicago Akbakay, Zeki. “2000 SONRASININ TÜRKİYE’SİNDE DALGALANMA KORKUSU”. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 7, no. 14 (November 2017): 265-91.
EndNote Akbakay Z (November 1, 2017) 2000 SONRASININ TÜRKİYE’SİNDE DALGALANMA KORKUSU. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 7 14 265–291.
IEEE Z. Akbakay, “2000 SONRASININ TÜRKİYE’SİNDE DALGALANMA KORKUSU”, Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 7, no. 14, pp. 265–291, 2017.
ISNAD Akbakay, Zeki. “2000 SONRASININ TÜRKİYE’SİNDE DALGALANMA KORKUSU”. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 7/14 (November 2017), 265-291.
JAMA Akbakay Z. 2000 SONRASININ TÜRKİYE’SİNDE DALGALANMA KORKUSU. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2017;7:265–291.
MLA Akbakay, Zeki. “2000 SONRASININ TÜRKİYE’SİNDE DALGALANMA KORKUSU”. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 7, no. 14, 2017, pp. 265-91.
Vancouver Akbakay Z. 2000 SONRASININ TÜRKİYE’SİNDE DALGALANMA KORKUSU. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2017;7(14):265-91.

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