IMPACT OF PANDEMIC COVID-19’S ON NATIONAL CURRENCY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS: AN ANALYSIS ON DEVELOPING AND DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
Abstract
Coronavirus outbreak which started as an epidemic in Wuhan, China and soon transformed into a pandemic in the first quarter of 2020 is about to bring a profound stagnation to many national economies. In the study, to understand the effects of the covid-19 pandemic on national currency and financial markets from the perspective of developing and developing countries, daily data including the stock market closing prices, exchange rate and WTI gross oil prices of the effects of COVID-19 in the period of March 10, 2020 and May 9, 2020 for developing and developed economies were used. China, South Korea, Brazil, and Turkey are chosen to represent the developing world and Italy, France, Germany, Spain and England represent the developed world. Logarithms of all variables were taken and in the econometric application part, vector autoregression model was used. At the end of the study, it was determined that the number of Covid-19 cases did not affect exchange rates, but had an effect on stock prices in developing economies. As a result, It has been determined that developing economies affect more than developed economies from pandemic.
Keywords
Covid-19 Stock Exchange Exchange Rates Financial Markets Covid-19, Stock Exchange, Exchange Rates, Financial Markets
References
- Almond, D. (2006), “Is the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Over? Long-term Effect of In Utero Influenza Exposure in the Post-1940 U.S. Population”, Journal of Political Economy, 114(4): 672-712.
- Barro, R, J., Ursúa, J. F., and Weng, J. (2020), “The coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: lessons from the ‘Spanish flu’ for the coronavirus’ potential effects on mortality and economic activity”, NBER Working Paper, no 26866.
- Brainerd, E., and Siegler, M. (2003), “The Economic Effect of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic Discussion”, Paper 3791, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
- CRS. (2020), Global Economic Effects of COVID-19, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R46270.pdf
- IMF. (2020), Latest World Economic Outlook Growth Projections, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020
- Demir, İ. (2020), Kovid-19 Salgının Seyri ve Türkiye Ekonomisi. ULİSA12, https://aybu.edu.tr/yulisa/contents/files/ULI%CC%87SA12_Kovid_19_Ekonomik_Etkiler.pdf
- Ozili, P., and Arun, T. (2020), Spillover of COVID-19: Impact on the Global Economy Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3562570.
- PCW. (2020), PricewaterhouseCoopers: Macroeconomic Impact of the COVID-19 in China and Policy Suggestions, https://www.pwccn.com/en/covid-19/macroeconomic-impact-covid19-policy-suggestions.pdf
- PCW. (2020), The possible economic consequences of a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, https://www.pwc.com.au/publications/australia-matters/economic-consequences-coronavirus-COVID-19-pandemic.pdf
- Yorulmaz, R., and Kaptan, S. (2020), “Kovid-19 ile Mücadele Sürecinde Maliye Politikalarının Rolü”, ULİSA12, https://aybu.edu.tr/yulisa/contents/files/ULI%CC%87SA12_Kovid_19_Ekonomik_Etkiler.pdf
- Garrett, T. A. (2007), Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Implications for a Modern-day Pandemic, https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-development/research-reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf
- ULİSA12. (2020), Kovid-19 (Koronavirüs) Salgınının Ekonomik Etkileri, https://aybu.edu.tr/yulisa/contents/files/ULI%CC%87SA12_Kovid_19_Ekonomik_Etkiler.pdf
COVID-19 PANDEMİSİNİN ULUSAL PARALAR VE FİNANSAL PİYASALAR ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: GELİŞMİŞ VE GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELER ÜZERİNE BİR ANALİZ
Abstract
Çin'in Wuhan kentinde bölgesel salgın olarak başlayan ve kısa süre sonra 2020'nin ilk çeyreğinde küresel salgına dönüşen koronavirüs salgını, birçok ulusal ekonomide derin bir durgunluğa yol açmak üzeredir. Covid-19 pandemisinin ulusal para birimleri ve finansal piyasalar üzerindeki etkilerini, gelişmekte olan ülkeler ve gelişmiş ülkeler perspektifinden anlamak için yapılan bu çalışmada, gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ekonomiler için 10 Mart 2020 ve 9 Mayıs 2020 dönemindeki COVID-19 etkilerinin borsa kapanış fiyatları, döviz kuru ve WTI brüt petrol fiyatlarını içeren günlük veriler kullanılmıştır. Gelişmekte olan ekonomileri temsil etmek üzere; Çin, Güney Kore, Brezilya ve Türkiye seçilirken, gelişmiş ekonomileri temsil etmek üzere ise; İtalya, Fransa, Almanya, İspanya ve İngiltere seçilmiştir. Tüm değişkenlerin logaritmaları alınmış ve ekonometrik uygulama kısmında vektör otoregresyon modeli kullanılmıştır. Çalışma sonunda, Covid-19 vaka sayısının döviz kurlarını etkilemediği, gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde hisse senetleri fiyatları üzerinde bir etkiye sahip olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, Gelişmekte olan ekonomilerin gelişmiş ekonomilere göre, pandemiden daha fazla etkilediği tespit edilmiştir.
Keywords
Covid-19 Borsa Döviz Kurları Finansal Piyasalar Covid-19, Borsa, Döviz Kurları, Finansal Piyasalar
References
- Almond, D. (2006), “Is the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Over? Long-term Effect of In Utero Influenza Exposure in the Post-1940 U.S. Population”, Journal of Political Economy, 114(4): 672-712.
- Barro, R, J., Ursúa, J. F., and Weng, J. (2020), “The coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: lessons from the ‘Spanish flu’ for the coronavirus’ potential effects on mortality and economic activity”, NBER Working Paper, no 26866.
- Brainerd, E., and Siegler, M. (2003), “The Economic Effect of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic Discussion”, Paper 3791, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
- CRS. (2020), Global Economic Effects of COVID-19, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R46270.pdf
- IMF. (2020), Latest World Economic Outlook Growth Projections, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020
- Demir, İ. (2020), Kovid-19 Salgının Seyri ve Türkiye Ekonomisi. ULİSA12, https://aybu.edu.tr/yulisa/contents/files/ULI%CC%87SA12_Kovid_19_Ekonomik_Etkiler.pdf
- Ozili, P., and Arun, T. (2020), Spillover of COVID-19: Impact on the Global Economy Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3562570.
- PCW. (2020), PricewaterhouseCoopers: Macroeconomic Impact of the COVID-19 in China and Policy Suggestions, https://www.pwccn.com/en/covid-19/macroeconomic-impact-covid19-policy-suggestions.pdf
- PCW. (2020), The possible economic consequences of a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, https://www.pwc.com.au/publications/australia-matters/economic-consequences-coronavirus-COVID-19-pandemic.pdf
- Yorulmaz, R., and Kaptan, S. (2020), “Kovid-19 ile Mücadele Sürecinde Maliye Politikalarının Rolü”, ULİSA12, https://aybu.edu.tr/yulisa/contents/files/ULI%CC%87SA12_Kovid_19_Ekonomik_Etkiler.pdf
- Garrett, T. A. (2007), Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Implications for a Modern-day Pandemic, https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-development/research-reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf
- ULİSA12. (2020), Kovid-19 (Koronavirüs) Salgınının Ekonomik Etkileri, https://aybu.edu.tr/yulisa/contents/files/ULI%CC%87SA12_Kovid_19_Ekonomik_Etkiler.pdf
Details
| Primary Language | English |
|---|---|
| Subjects | Economics |
| Journal Section | Research Article |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | November 29, 2021 |
| Submission Date | January 19, 2021 |
| Acceptance Date | August 28, 2021 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2021 Volume: 11 Issue: 22 |
Cite
All works published in this journal are licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) License.