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YÖNETİCİ AŞIRI GÜVENİNİN FİRMA DEĞERİ VE BORÇLANMA KARARLARI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: BIST GIDA SEKTÖRÜ ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA

Year 2022, Volume: 12 Issue: 23, 199 - 211, 28.05.2022
https://doi.org/10.53092/duiibfd.1034914

Abstract

Bu çalışmada BİST Gıda sektöründe yer alan 19 firmanın 2005-2020 yılları arasındaki finansal verileri incelenerek, yönetici aşırı güveninin firma değeri ve borçlanma kararları üzerindeki etkisi Panel veri yöntemi ile araştırılmıştır. Yönetici aşırı güveni Schrand & Zechman (2012) ve Gao & Han (2020)’ın çalışmalarında kullandıkları yöntem ile tespit edilmiştir. Ampirik sonuçlara göre yönetici aşırı güveni firma değerini negatif yönde etkilerken, borçlanma oranını pozitif yönde etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar yönetici aşırı güveninin finansal kararlar üzerinde önemli bir etkiye sahip olduğunu ortaya koymuştur.

References

  • Abdeldayem Marvan M.. & Sedeek, D. S. (2018). Managerial behavior and capital structure decisions; Do overconfidence, optimism and risk aversion matter?. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 8(7), 925-945.
  • Alicke, M. D. (1985). Global self-evaluation as determined by the desirability and controllability of trait adjectives. Journal of personality and social-psychology, 49(6), 1621.
  • Ben-David, I., Graham, J. R., & Harvey, C. R. (2013). Managerial miscalibration. The Quarterly journal of economics, 128(4), 1547-1584.
  • Bharati, R., Doellman, T., & Fu, X. (2016). CEO confidence and stock returns. Journal of Contemporary Accounting & Economics, 12(1), 89-110.
  • Brenner, L. A., Koehler, D. J., Liberman, V., & Tversky, A. (1996). Overconfidence in probability and frequency judgments: A critical examination. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65(3), 212-219.
  • Chen, Q. A., & Li, X. L. (2007). A model on agent-principal relationship with overconfident agents. Journal of Management Engineering [in Chinese], 1, 110–116.
  • Dashtbayaz, M.L., & Mohammadi, S. (2016). The effect of managerial overconfidence on firm value: Evidence from companies listed in Tehran stock exchange. International Journal of Accounting and EconomicsStudies, 4(1), 32-35.
  • Galasso, A., & Simcoe, T.S. (2011). CEO Overconfidence and Innovation. Management Science, 57(8), 1469-1484.
  • Gao, Y., & Han, K. S. (2020). Managerial overconfidence, CSR and firm value. Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting &Economics, 1-19.
  • Gervais, S., & Odean, T. (2001). Learning to be overconfident. Review of Financial Studies, 14(1), 1-27.
  • Gervais, S., Heaton, J. B., & Odean, T. (2011). Overconfidence, compensation contracts, and capital budgeting. The Journal of Finance, 66(5), 1735-1777.
  • Goel, A.M., & Thakor, A.V. (2008). Overconfidence, CEO selection, and corporate governance. Journal of Finance, 63(6), 2737-2784.
  • Gervais, S., Heaton, J. B., & Odean, T. (2002). The positive role of overconfidence and optimism in investment policy. Phys. Rev. 47, 777-780.
  • Hirshleifer, D., Low, A., & Teoh, S. H. (2012). Are overconfident CEOs better innovators?. The journal of finance, 67(4), 1457-1498.
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). On the interpretation of intuitive probability: A reply to Jonathan Cohen. Cognition, 7(4), 409–411.
  • Korkmaz T. & A. Ceylan (2010). Sermaye Piyasası ve Menkul Değer Analizi. Ekin Yayıncılık
  • Kunjal, D., Nyasha, J., Ghısyan, A., Govender, P. J., Murugasen, S., Naıdoo, P., & Muzındutsı, P. F. The Effect of Managerial Overconfidence on Firm Value: Evidence from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.
  • Larrick, R. P., Burson, K. A., & Soll, J. B. (2007). Social comparison and confidence: When thinking you’re better than average predicts overconfidence (and when it does not). Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 102(1), 76-94.
  • Lemmon, M.L., Roberts, M., & Zender, J.F. (2008). Back to the Beginning: Persistence and the Cross-Section of Corporate Capital Structure. Journal of Finance, 63(4), 1575- 160.
  • Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2005). CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. The journal of finance, 60(6), 2661-2700.
  • Mundi, H., & Kaur, P. (2019). Impact of CEO overconfidence on firm performance: Evidence from S&P BSE 200. The Journal of Business Perspective, 23(3), 234-243.
  • Oskamp, S. (1965). Overconfidence in case-study judgments. Journal of consulting psychology, 29(3), 261.
  • Park, C. & Kim, H. (2009). The effect of managerial overconfidence on leverage. International Business and Economics Research Journal (IBER), 8(12), 115-126.
  • Rihab, B. A., & Lotfi, B. J. (2016). Managerial overconfidence and debt decisions. Journal of modern accounting and auditing, 12(4), 225-241.
  • Ritter, J. R. (2003). Behavioral finance. Pacific-Basin finance journal, 11(4), 429-437.
  • Schrand, C. M., & S. L. Zechman. 2012. “Executive Overconfidence and the Slippery Slope to Financial Misreporting.” Journal of Accounting and Economics, 53 (1–2): 311–329.
  • Shah, S.S.H., Xinping, X., Khan, M., & Harjan, S. (2018). Investor and manager overconfidence bias and firm value: micro-level evidence from the Pakistan equity market. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 8(5), 190-199.
  • Ting, I. W. K., Azizan, N. A. B., & Kweh, Q. L. (2016). Managerial overconfidence and leverage decision. The moderating effect of human governance in Malaysia. Journal for Global Business Advancement, 9(1), 38-51.
  • van der Velde, P.H. (2017). What is the effect of CEO overconfidence on firm value? (UnpublishedMaster’sThesis, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Netherlands, 2017). https://thesis.eur.nl/pub/41074/Velde-P.H.-van-der-457842-.pdf
  • Vitanova, I. (2019). Nurturing overconfidence: The relationship between leaderpower, overconfidence and firm performance. The Leadership Quarterly.
  • Wang, D., Sutherland, D., Ning, L., Wang, Y., & Pan, X. (2018). Exploring the influence of political connections and managerial overconfidence on R&D intensity in China's large-scale private sector firms. Technovation, 69, 40-53.
  • Weinstein, N. D. (1980). Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of personality and social psychology, 39(5), 806.
  • Ye, B. & Yuan, J. (2008). Firm value, managerial confidence, and investments: The case of China. Journal of Leadership Studies, 2(3), 26-36.
  • Zavertiaeva, M.A., López‐Iturriaga, F.J., & Kuminova, E.V. (2018). Better innovators or more innovators? Managerial overconfidence and corporate R&D. Managerial and Decision Economics, 39(4), 447-461.

THE EFFECT OF MANAGER'S OVERCONFIDENCE ON FIRM VALUE AND DEBT DECISIONS: AN EMPIRICAL RESEARCH ON BIST FOOD INDUSTRY

Year 2022, Volume: 12 Issue: 23, 199 - 211, 28.05.2022
https://doi.org/10.53092/duiibfd.1034914

Abstract

In this study, the relationship between manager overconfidence and firm value and debt ratio was investigated by panel data method, examining the financial data of 19 firms in the BIST Food sector between the years 2005-2020. Manager overconfidence was determined by the method used in Schrand & Zechman (2012) and Gao & Han (2020) studies. According to the empirical results, it has been determined that while manager overconfidence affects the firm value negatively, it affects the debt ratio positively. The results revealed that executive overconfidence has a significant impact on financial decisions.

References

  • Abdeldayem Marvan M.. & Sedeek, D. S. (2018). Managerial behavior and capital structure decisions; Do overconfidence, optimism and risk aversion matter?. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 8(7), 925-945.
  • Alicke, M. D. (1985). Global self-evaluation as determined by the desirability and controllability of trait adjectives. Journal of personality and social-psychology, 49(6), 1621.
  • Ben-David, I., Graham, J. R., & Harvey, C. R. (2013). Managerial miscalibration. The Quarterly journal of economics, 128(4), 1547-1584.
  • Bharati, R., Doellman, T., & Fu, X. (2016). CEO confidence and stock returns. Journal of Contemporary Accounting & Economics, 12(1), 89-110.
  • Brenner, L. A., Koehler, D. J., Liberman, V., & Tversky, A. (1996). Overconfidence in probability and frequency judgments: A critical examination. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65(3), 212-219.
  • Chen, Q. A., & Li, X. L. (2007). A model on agent-principal relationship with overconfident agents. Journal of Management Engineering [in Chinese], 1, 110–116.
  • Dashtbayaz, M.L., & Mohammadi, S. (2016). The effect of managerial overconfidence on firm value: Evidence from companies listed in Tehran stock exchange. International Journal of Accounting and EconomicsStudies, 4(1), 32-35.
  • Galasso, A., & Simcoe, T.S. (2011). CEO Overconfidence and Innovation. Management Science, 57(8), 1469-1484.
  • Gao, Y., & Han, K. S. (2020). Managerial overconfidence, CSR and firm value. Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting &Economics, 1-19.
  • Gervais, S., & Odean, T. (2001). Learning to be overconfident. Review of Financial Studies, 14(1), 1-27.
  • Gervais, S., Heaton, J. B., & Odean, T. (2011). Overconfidence, compensation contracts, and capital budgeting. The Journal of Finance, 66(5), 1735-1777.
  • Goel, A.M., & Thakor, A.V. (2008). Overconfidence, CEO selection, and corporate governance. Journal of Finance, 63(6), 2737-2784.
  • Gervais, S., Heaton, J. B., & Odean, T. (2002). The positive role of overconfidence and optimism in investment policy. Phys. Rev. 47, 777-780.
  • Hirshleifer, D., Low, A., & Teoh, S. H. (2012). Are overconfident CEOs better innovators?. The journal of finance, 67(4), 1457-1498.
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). On the interpretation of intuitive probability: A reply to Jonathan Cohen. Cognition, 7(4), 409–411.
  • Korkmaz T. & A. Ceylan (2010). Sermaye Piyasası ve Menkul Değer Analizi. Ekin Yayıncılık
  • Kunjal, D., Nyasha, J., Ghısyan, A., Govender, P. J., Murugasen, S., Naıdoo, P., & Muzındutsı, P. F. The Effect of Managerial Overconfidence on Firm Value: Evidence from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.
  • Larrick, R. P., Burson, K. A., & Soll, J. B. (2007). Social comparison and confidence: When thinking you’re better than average predicts overconfidence (and when it does not). Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 102(1), 76-94.
  • Lemmon, M.L., Roberts, M., & Zender, J.F. (2008). Back to the Beginning: Persistence and the Cross-Section of Corporate Capital Structure. Journal of Finance, 63(4), 1575- 160.
  • Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2005). CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. The journal of finance, 60(6), 2661-2700.
  • Mundi, H., & Kaur, P. (2019). Impact of CEO overconfidence on firm performance: Evidence from S&P BSE 200. The Journal of Business Perspective, 23(3), 234-243.
  • Oskamp, S. (1965). Overconfidence in case-study judgments. Journal of consulting psychology, 29(3), 261.
  • Park, C. & Kim, H. (2009). The effect of managerial overconfidence on leverage. International Business and Economics Research Journal (IBER), 8(12), 115-126.
  • Rihab, B. A., & Lotfi, B. J. (2016). Managerial overconfidence and debt decisions. Journal of modern accounting and auditing, 12(4), 225-241.
  • Ritter, J. R. (2003). Behavioral finance. Pacific-Basin finance journal, 11(4), 429-437.
  • Schrand, C. M., & S. L. Zechman. 2012. “Executive Overconfidence and the Slippery Slope to Financial Misreporting.” Journal of Accounting and Economics, 53 (1–2): 311–329.
  • Shah, S.S.H., Xinping, X., Khan, M., & Harjan, S. (2018). Investor and manager overconfidence bias and firm value: micro-level evidence from the Pakistan equity market. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 8(5), 190-199.
  • Ting, I. W. K., Azizan, N. A. B., & Kweh, Q. L. (2016). Managerial overconfidence and leverage decision. The moderating effect of human governance in Malaysia. Journal for Global Business Advancement, 9(1), 38-51.
  • van der Velde, P.H. (2017). What is the effect of CEO overconfidence on firm value? (UnpublishedMaster’sThesis, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Netherlands, 2017). https://thesis.eur.nl/pub/41074/Velde-P.H.-van-der-457842-.pdf
  • Vitanova, I. (2019). Nurturing overconfidence: The relationship between leaderpower, overconfidence and firm performance. The Leadership Quarterly.
  • Wang, D., Sutherland, D., Ning, L., Wang, Y., & Pan, X. (2018). Exploring the influence of political connections and managerial overconfidence on R&D intensity in China's large-scale private sector firms. Technovation, 69, 40-53.
  • Weinstein, N. D. (1980). Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of personality and social psychology, 39(5), 806.
  • Ye, B. & Yuan, J. (2008). Firm value, managerial confidence, and investments: The case of China. Journal of Leadership Studies, 2(3), 26-36.
  • Zavertiaeva, M.A., López‐Iturriaga, F.J., & Kuminova, E.V. (2018). Better innovators or more innovators? Managerial overconfidence and corporate R&D. Managerial and Decision Economics, 39(4), 447-461.
There are 34 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Aslı Yıkılmaz 0000-0002-2334-7731

Publication Date May 28, 2022
Submission Date December 11, 2021
Acceptance Date January 19, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 12 Issue: 23

Cite

APA Yıkılmaz, A. (2022). YÖNETİCİ AŞIRI GÜVENİNİN FİRMA DEĞERİ VE BORÇLANMA KARARLARI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: BIST GIDA SEKTÖRÜ ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 12(23), 199-211. https://doi.org/10.53092/duiibfd.1034914
AMA Yıkılmaz A. YÖNETİCİ AŞIRI GÜVENİNİN FİRMA DEĞERİ VE BORÇLANMA KARARLARI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: BIST GIDA SEKTÖRÜ ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. May 2022;12(23):199-211. doi:10.53092/duiibfd.1034914
Chicago Yıkılmaz, Aslı. “YÖNETİCİ AŞIRI GÜVENİNİN FİRMA DEĞERİ VE BORÇLANMA KARARLARI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: BIST GIDA SEKTÖRÜ ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA”. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 12, no. 23 (May 2022): 199-211. https://doi.org/10.53092/duiibfd.1034914.
EndNote Yıkılmaz A (May 1, 2022) YÖNETİCİ AŞIRI GÜVENİNİN FİRMA DEĞERİ VE BORÇLANMA KARARLARI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: BIST GIDA SEKTÖRÜ ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 12 23 199–211.
IEEE A. Yıkılmaz, “YÖNETİCİ AŞIRI GÜVENİNİN FİRMA DEĞERİ VE BORÇLANMA KARARLARI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: BIST GIDA SEKTÖRÜ ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA”, Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 12, no. 23, pp. 199–211, 2022, doi: 10.53092/duiibfd.1034914.
ISNAD Yıkılmaz, Aslı. “YÖNETİCİ AŞIRI GÜVENİNİN FİRMA DEĞERİ VE BORÇLANMA KARARLARI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: BIST GIDA SEKTÖRÜ ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA”. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 12/23 (May 2022), 199-211. https://doi.org/10.53092/duiibfd.1034914.
JAMA Yıkılmaz A. YÖNETİCİ AŞIRI GÜVENİNİN FİRMA DEĞERİ VE BORÇLANMA KARARLARI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: BIST GIDA SEKTÖRÜ ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2022;12:199–211.
MLA Yıkılmaz, Aslı. “YÖNETİCİ AŞIRI GÜVENİNİN FİRMA DEĞERİ VE BORÇLANMA KARARLARI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: BIST GIDA SEKTÖRÜ ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA”. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 12, no. 23, 2022, pp. 199-11, doi:10.53092/duiibfd.1034914.
Vancouver Yıkılmaz A. YÖNETİCİ AŞIRI GÜVENİNİN FİRMA DEĞERİ VE BORÇLANMA KARARLARI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: BIST GIDA SEKTÖRÜ ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2022;12(23):199-211.

Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi
Dicle University, Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences