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CO2 EMISSIONS, ENERGY INTENSITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: COINTEGRATION AND CAUSALITY ANALYSIS FOR TÜRKİYE

Year 2025, Volume: 15 Issue: 30, 590 - 608

Ahmet Demiralp

https://doi.org/10.53092/duiibfd.1609095

Abstract

This study aims to understand the effects of energy policies by examining the relationship between energy intensity, carbon dioxide emissions, and economic growth in Türkiye from 1990 to 2023 through cointegration and causality tests. The findings of the cointegration test indicate a symmetric ESTAR cointegration relationship between the variables analyzed. This shows that all three variables move together in the long run. The findings of the asymmetric causality test indicate that there is only a unidirectional causality relationship from positive shocks of energy intensity to negative shocks of economic growth. This suggests that energy efficiency policies should be designed in a way that is compatible with both environmental sustainability and economic growth objectives. The results of the study emphasize the importance of considering not only the environmental impact of energy policies but also their potential impact on economic growth.

Keywords

Energy Intensity Economic Growth CO2 Emission Cointegration Causality

References

  • Abban, O. J., Wu, J., & Mensah, I. A. (2020). Analysis on the nexus amid CO2 emissions, energy intensity, economic growth, and foreign direct investment in Belt and Road economies: does the level of income matter? Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 11387-11402. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-07685-9
  • Abid, I., Hechmi, S., & Chaabouni, I. (2024). Impact of energy intensity and CO2 emissions on economic growth in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries. Sustainability, 16(23), 10266. https://doi.org/10.3390/ su162310266
  • Adom, P. K., & Kwakwa, P. A. (2014). Effects of changing trade structure and technical characteristics of the manufacturing sector on energy intensity in Ghana. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 35, 475-483. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.04.014
  • Akkaya, Ş., & Hepsag, A. (2021). Does fuel tax decrease carbon dioxide emissions in Turkey? Evidence from an asymmetric nonlinear cointegration test and error correction model. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 35094-35101. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-12907-9
  • Appiah, K., Du, J., Yeboah, M., & Appiah, R. (2019). Causal relationship between industrialization, energy intensity, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions: recent evidence from Uganda. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 9(2), 237-245. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7420
  • Beken, H. G., & Cebeci, A. (2024). Çatışmalı bir süreç olarak sınırda karbon düzenleme mekanizması uygulaması. Paradigma: İktisadi ve İdari Araştırmalar Dergisi, 13(2), 115-128.
  • Ben Mbarek, M., Ben Ali, N., & Feki, R. (2014). Causality relationship between CO2 emissions, GDP and energy intensity in Tunisia. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 16(6), 1253-1262. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-014-9525-x
  • Bildirici, M. E., Castanho, R. A., Kayıkçı, F., & Genç, S. Y. (2022). ICT, energy intensity, and CO2 emission nexus. Energies, 15(13), 4567. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15134567
  • Deichmann, U., Reuter, A., Vollmer, S., & Zhang, F. (2019). The relationship between energy intensity and economic growth: New evidence from a multi-country multi-sectorial dataset. World Development, 124, 104664. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104664
  • Emir, F., & Bekun, F. V. (2019). Energy intensity, carbon emissions, renewable energy, and economic growth nexus: new insights from Romania. Energy & Environment, 30(3), 427-443. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305X18793108
  • Hacker, R. S., & Hatemi-J, A. (2006). Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: theory and application. Applied Economics, 38(13), 1489-1500. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500405763
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics, 43, 447-456. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-011-0484-x
  • Hatzigeorgiou, E., Polatidis, H., & Haralambopoulos, D. (2011). CO2 emissions, GDP and energy intensity: a multivariate cointegration and causality analysis for Greece, 1977–2007. Applied Energy, 88(4), 1377-1385. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2010.10.008
  • Hepsag, A. (2021). Testing for cointegration in nonlinear asymmetric smooth transition error correction models. Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation, 50(2), 400-412. https:// doi.org/10.1080/03610918.2018.1559927
  • Hundie, S. K., & Daksa, M. D. (2019). Does energy-environmental Kuznets curve hold for Ethiopia? The relationship between energy intensity and economic growth. Journal of Economic Structures, 8(1), 21. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-019-0154-2
  • Khan, H., Weili, L., Khan, I., & Zhang, J. (2023). The nexus between natural resources, renewable energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon dioxide emission in BRI countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(13), 36692-36709. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-24193-0
  • Kirca, M., & Karagol, V. (2019). Symmetric and asymmetric causality between current account balance and oil prices: The case of BRICS-T. Прикладная эконометрика, 4(56), 25-44.
  • Ma, C. Q., Liu, J. L., Ren, Y. S., & Jiang, Y. (2019). The Impact of economic growth, FDI and energy intensity on China’s manufacturing industry’s CO2 emissions: An empirical study based on the fixed-effect panel quantile regression model. Energies, 12(24), 4800. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12244800
  • Mahmood, T., & Ahmad, E. (2018). The relationship of energy intensity with economic growth: Evidence for European economies. Energy Strategy Reviews, 20, 90-98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2018.02.002
  • Meșter, I., Simuț, R., Meșter, L., & Bâc, D. (2023). An investigation of tourism, economic growth, CO2 emissions, trade openness and energy intensity index nexus: Evidence for the European Union. Energies, 16(11), 4308. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16114308
  • Muhammad, S. (2012). Multivariate granger causality between CO2 Emissions, energy intensity, financial development and economic growth: evidence from Portugal. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/37774
  • Namahoro, J. P., Wu, Q., Zhou, N., & Xue, S. (2021). Impact of energy intensity, renewable energy, and economic growth on CO2 emissions: Evidence from Africa across regions and income levels. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 147, 111233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2021.111233
  • Shahbaz, M., Solarin, S. A., Sbia, R., & Bibi, S. (2015). Does energy intensity contribute to CO2 emissions? A trivariate analysis in selected African countries. Ecological Indicators, 50, 215-224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.11.007
  • Shokoohi, Z., Dehbidi, N. K., & Tarazkar, M. H. (2022). Energy intensity, economic growth and environmental quality in populous Middle East countries. Energy, 239, 122164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.122164
  • Sharmin, M., & Tareque, M. (2018). Econometric analysis of the effect of economic globalization, energy intensity, urbanization, industrialization and growth on CO2 emissions of Bangladesh. Managing Global Transitions: International Research Journal, 16(4), 335-354. https://doi.org/10.26493/1854-6935.16_4
  • Şanlı, O. (2023). Are energy intensity, total primary energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, and CO2 emissions a driver for economic growth? evidence from Turkiye. In: Akça, H. & Ata, A. Y. & Yurdadoğ, V. (eds.), Teoriden Pratiğe Ekonomi Politikaları ve Dönüşümü I. Özgür Yayınları. https://doi.org/10.58830/ozgur.pub293.c1268
  • T.C. Enerji ve Tabi Kaynaklar Bakanlığı (2024, Ekim 18). Enerji Verimliliği ve Çevre Dairesi Başkanlığı. https://enerjiverimliligi.enerji.gov.tr/template/dist/pdf/2022EY.pdf
  • TÜİK (2024). Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu, Sera Gazı Emisyon İstatistikleri, 1990-2022. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Sera-Gazi-Emisyon-Istatistikleri-1990-2022-53701
  • Yang, Z., Cai, J., Lu, Y., & Zhang, B. (2022). The impact of economic growth, industrial transition, and energy intensity on carbon dioxide emissions in China. Sustainability, 14(9), 4884. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14094884
  • Yaw Naminse, E., & Zhuang, J. (2018). Economic growth, energy intensity, and carbon dioxide emissions in China. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 27(5), 2193-2201. https://doi.org/10.15244/pjoes/78619
  • Yazdi, S. K., & Mastorakis, N. (2014). The dynamic links between economic growth, energy intensity and CO2 emissions in Iran. Recent advances in applied economics, 10, 140-146.
  • Zardoub, A. (2024). Impact of economic growth, renewable energy consumption and energy intensity on CO2 emissions in BRIC countries: An application of CS-ARDL. Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development, 8(8), 4312. https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i8.4312
  • Zhou, J., Ma, Z., Wei, T., & Li, C. (2021). Threshold effect of economic growth on energy intensity evidence from 21 developed countries. Energies, 14(14), 4199. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14144199

CO2 EMİSYONU, ENERJİ YOĞUNLUĞU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE İÇİN EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME VE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Year 2025, Volume: 15 Issue: 30, 590 - 608

Ahmet Demiralp

https://doi.org/10.53092/duiibfd.1609095

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de enerji yoğunluğu, karbondioksit emisyonu ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi 1990-2023 dönemleri için eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik testleriyle inceleyerek enerji politikalarının etkilerini anlamayı amaçlamaktadır. Eşbütünleşme testine ait bulgulardan incelenen değişkenler arasında simetrik ESTAR eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Bu ise her üç değişkenin de uzun dönemde birlikte hareket etme eğiliminde olduklarını göstermektedir. Asimetrik nedensellik testine ait bulgulardan ise sadece enerji yoğunluğunun pozitif şoklarından ekonomik büyümenin negatif şoklarına doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisine ulaşılmıştır. Bu durum, enerji verimliliği politikalarının hem çevresel sürdürülebilirlik hem de ekonomik büyüme hedefleriyle uyumlu bir şekilde tasarlanması gerektiğine işaret etmektedir. Çalışmanın sonuçları, enerji politikalarının yalnızca çevresel etkilerini değil, aynı zamanda ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki potansiyel etkilerini de dikkate almanın önemini vurgulamaktadır.

Keywords

Enerji Yoğunluğu Ekonomik Büyüme CO2 emisyonu Eşbütünleşme Nedensellik

References

  • Abban, O. J., Wu, J., & Mensah, I. A. (2020). Analysis on the nexus amid CO2 emissions, energy intensity, economic growth, and foreign direct investment in Belt and Road economies: does the level of income matter? Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 11387-11402. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-07685-9
  • Abid, I., Hechmi, S., & Chaabouni, I. (2024). Impact of energy intensity and CO2 emissions on economic growth in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries. Sustainability, 16(23), 10266. https://doi.org/10.3390/ su162310266
  • Adom, P. K., & Kwakwa, P. A. (2014). Effects of changing trade structure and technical characteristics of the manufacturing sector on energy intensity in Ghana. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 35, 475-483. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.04.014
  • Akkaya, Ş., & Hepsag, A. (2021). Does fuel tax decrease carbon dioxide emissions in Turkey? Evidence from an asymmetric nonlinear cointegration test and error correction model. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 35094-35101. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-12907-9
  • Appiah, K., Du, J., Yeboah, M., & Appiah, R. (2019). Causal relationship between industrialization, energy intensity, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions: recent evidence from Uganda. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 9(2), 237-245. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7420
  • Beken, H. G., & Cebeci, A. (2024). Çatışmalı bir süreç olarak sınırda karbon düzenleme mekanizması uygulaması. Paradigma: İktisadi ve İdari Araştırmalar Dergisi, 13(2), 115-128.
  • Ben Mbarek, M., Ben Ali, N., & Feki, R. (2014). Causality relationship between CO2 emissions, GDP and energy intensity in Tunisia. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 16(6), 1253-1262. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-014-9525-x
  • Bildirici, M. E., Castanho, R. A., Kayıkçı, F., & Genç, S. Y. (2022). ICT, energy intensity, and CO2 emission nexus. Energies, 15(13), 4567. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15134567
  • Deichmann, U., Reuter, A., Vollmer, S., & Zhang, F. (2019). The relationship between energy intensity and economic growth: New evidence from a multi-country multi-sectorial dataset. World Development, 124, 104664. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104664
  • Emir, F., & Bekun, F. V. (2019). Energy intensity, carbon emissions, renewable energy, and economic growth nexus: new insights from Romania. Energy & Environment, 30(3), 427-443. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305X18793108
  • Hacker, R. S., & Hatemi-J, A. (2006). Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: theory and application. Applied Economics, 38(13), 1489-1500. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500405763
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics, 43, 447-456. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-011-0484-x
  • Hatzigeorgiou, E., Polatidis, H., & Haralambopoulos, D. (2011). CO2 emissions, GDP and energy intensity: a multivariate cointegration and causality analysis for Greece, 1977–2007. Applied Energy, 88(4), 1377-1385. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2010.10.008
  • Hepsag, A. (2021). Testing for cointegration in nonlinear asymmetric smooth transition error correction models. Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation, 50(2), 400-412. https:// doi.org/10.1080/03610918.2018.1559927
  • Hundie, S. K., & Daksa, M. D. (2019). Does energy-environmental Kuznets curve hold for Ethiopia? The relationship between energy intensity and economic growth. Journal of Economic Structures, 8(1), 21. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-019-0154-2
  • Khan, H., Weili, L., Khan, I., & Zhang, J. (2023). The nexus between natural resources, renewable energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon dioxide emission in BRI countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(13), 36692-36709. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-24193-0
  • Kirca, M., & Karagol, V. (2019). Symmetric and asymmetric causality between current account balance and oil prices: The case of BRICS-T. Прикладная эконометрика, 4(56), 25-44.
  • Ma, C. Q., Liu, J. L., Ren, Y. S., & Jiang, Y. (2019). The Impact of economic growth, FDI and energy intensity on China’s manufacturing industry’s CO2 emissions: An empirical study based on the fixed-effect panel quantile regression model. Energies, 12(24), 4800. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12244800
  • Mahmood, T., & Ahmad, E. (2018). The relationship of energy intensity with economic growth: Evidence for European economies. Energy Strategy Reviews, 20, 90-98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2018.02.002
  • Meșter, I., Simuț, R., Meșter, L., & Bâc, D. (2023). An investigation of tourism, economic growth, CO2 emissions, trade openness and energy intensity index nexus: Evidence for the European Union. Energies, 16(11), 4308. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16114308
  • Muhammad, S. (2012). Multivariate granger causality between CO2 Emissions, energy intensity, financial development and economic growth: evidence from Portugal. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/37774
  • Namahoro, J. P., Wu, Q., Zhou, N., & Xue, S. (2021). Impact of energy intensity, renewable energy, and economic growth on CO2 emissions: Evidence from Africa across regions and income levels. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 147, 111233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2021.111233
  • Shahbaz, M., Solarin, S. A., Sbia, R., & Bibi, S. (2015). Does energy intensity contribute to CO2 emissions? A trivariate analysis in selected African countries. Ecological Indicators, 50, 215-224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.11.007
  • Shokoohi, Z., Dehbidi, N. K., & Tarazkar, M. H. (2022). Energy intensity, economic growth and environmental quality in populous Middle East countries. Energy, 239, 122164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.122164
  • Sharmin, M., & Tareque, M. (2018). Econometric analysis of the effect of economic globalization, energy intensity, urbanization, industrialization and growth on CO2 emissions of Bangladesh. Managing Global Transitions: International Research Journal, 16(4), 335-354. https://doi.org/10.26493/1854-6935.16_4
  • Şanlı, O. (2023). Are energy intensity, total primary energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, and CO2 emissions a driver for economic growth? evidence from Turkiye. In: Akça, H. & Ata, A. Y. & Yurdadoğ, V. (eds.), Teoriden Pratiğe Ekonomi Politikaları ve Dönüşümü I. Özgür Yayınları. https://doi.org/10.58830/ozgur.pub293.c1268
  • T.C. Enerji ve Tabi Kaynaklar Bakanlığı (2024, Ekim 18). Enerji Verimliliği ve Çevre Dairesi Başkanlığı. https://enerjiverimliligi.enerji.gov.tr/template/dist/pdf/2022EY.pdf
  • TÜİK (2024). Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu, Sera Gazı Emisyon İstatistikleri, 1990-2022. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Sera-Gazi-Emisyon-Istatistikleri-1990-2022-53701
  • Yang, Z., Cai, J., Lu, Y., & Zhang, B. (2022). The impact of economic growth, industrial transition, and energy intensity on carbon dioxide emissions in China. Sustainability, 14(9), 4884. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14094884
  • Yaw Naminse, E., & Zhuang, J. (2018). Economic growth, energy intensity, and carbon dioxide emissions in China. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 27(5), 2193-2201. https://doi.org/10.15244/pjoes/78619
  • Yazdi, S. K., & Mastorakis, N. (2014). The dynamic links between economic growth, energy intensity and CO2 emissions in Iran. Recent advances in applied economics, 10, 140-146.
  • Zardoub, A. (2024). Impact of economic growth, renewable energy consumption and energy intensity on CO2 emissions in BRIC countries: An application of CS-ARDL. Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development, 8(8), 4312. https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i8.4312
  • Zhou, J., Ma, Z., Wei, T., & Li, C. (2021). Threshold effect of economic growth on energy intensity evidence from 21 developed countries. Energies, 14(14), 4199. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14144199
There are 33 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Time-Series Analysis
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Ahmet Demiralp 0000-0002-0981-7215

Early Pub Date November 25, 2025
Publication Date November 26, 2025
Submission Date January 2, 2025
Acceptance Date September 8, 2025
Published in Issue Year 2025 Volume: 15 Issue: 30

Cite

APA Demiralp, A. (2025). CO2 EMİSYONU, ENERJİ YOĞUNLUĞU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE İÇİN EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME VE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 15(30), 590-608. https://doi.org/10.53092/duiibfd.1609095
AMA Demiralp A. CO2 EMİSYONU, ENERJİ YOĞUNLUĞU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE İÇİN EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME VE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. November 2025;15(30):590-608. doi:10.53092/duiibfd.1609095
Chicago Demiralp, Ahmet. “CO2 EMİSYONU, ENERJİ YOĞUNLUĞU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE İÇİN EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME VE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ”. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 15, no. 30 (November 2025): 590-608. https://doi.org/10.53092/duiibfd.1609095.
EndNote Demiralp A (November 1, 2025) CO2 EMİSYONU, ENERJİ YOĞUNLUĞU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE İÇİN EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME VE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 15 30 590–608.
IEEE A. Demiralp, “CO2 EMİSYONU, ENERJİ YOĞUNLUĞU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE İÇİN EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME VE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ”, Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 15, no. 30, pp. 590–608, 2025, doi: 10.53092/duiibfd.1609095.
ISNAD Demiralp, Ahmet. “CO2 EMİSYONU, ENERJİ YOĞUNLUĞU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE İÇİN EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME VE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ”. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 15/30 (November2025), 590-608. https://doi.org/10.53092/duiibfd.1609095.
JAMA Demiralp A. CO2 EMİSYONU, ENERJİ YOĞUNLUĞU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE İÇİN EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME VE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2025;15:590–608.
MLA Demiralp, Ahmet. “CO2 EMİSYONU, ENERJİ YOĞUNLUĞU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE İÇİN EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME VE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ”. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 15, no. 30, 2025, pp. 590-08, doi:10.53092/duiibfd.1609095.
Vancouver Demiralp A. CO2 EMİSYONU, ENERJİ YOĞUNLUĞU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: TÜRKİYE İÇİN EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME VE NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2025;15(30):590-608.

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