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Determination of Current Situation at Trend Observed Flow Observation Stations

Year 2020, Volume: 11 Issue: 2, 839 - 850, 15.06.2020
https://doi.org/10.24012/dumf.645717

Abstract

In this study, the current situations of the stations in which trend detected in almost all months in the study conducted using flow data between 1964 and 2000 is examined. For this purpose, station 311 within the boundaries of Susurluk basin, stations 1203 and 1224 in Sakarya basin, stations 1401 and 1402 in Yeşilırmak basin and stations 1714 in East Mediterranean basin were used. Sen's T and Spearman's Rho tests were applied to the the last 31 years data of the stations in order to determine the current status of the flow data. Also to evaluate the data as a whole same methods were applied to all data too. Trend start years were calculated using Mann-Kendall Rank Correlation test and linear slope of trends were calculated using Sen’s trend slope method. As a result of the study, when trend methods are applied to different periods of the same data, it is seen that trend can be determined in opposite direction or significant changes in slope values can be observed. It is concluded that the current situation should be investigated by applying trend analysis to shorter last term data especially in the stations with long term data. The trends are mostly declining and 1980s are the majority in the beginning of the trend.

References

  • Aksoy, B., (1999). Analysis of changes in sunshine duration data for Ankara, Turkey, Theor Appl Climatol, 64, 229–237.
  • Alobaidi, A .H., (2015). Analysis of relative humidity in Iraq for the period 1951-2010, Int J Sci Res Publ, 5, 5, 515-524.
  • Chattopadhyay, N., Hulme, M., (1997). Evaporation and potential evapotranspiration in India under conditions of recent and future climate change, Agric For Meteorol, 87, 55-73.
  • Chiew, F. H. S., McMahon, T. A., (1993). Detection of trend or change in annual flow of Australian rivers, Int J Climatol., 13, 643–653.
  • Dash, S. K., Jenamani, R. K., Kalsi, S.R., Panda, S. K., (2007). Some evidence of climate change in twentieth-century India, Clim Chang, 85, 299–321.
  • Douglas, E. M., Vogel, R. M. and Kroll, C. N., (2000). Trends in foods and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation, J Hydrol, 240, 90–105.
  • DSİ, (2019). Akım gözlem yıllıkları, http://www.dsi.gov.tr/faaliyetler/akim-gozlem-yilliklari, (1.10.2019).
  • Duhan, D., Pandey, A., (2013). Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of precipitation during 1901–2002 at Madhya Pradesh, India, Atmos Res, 122,136–149.
  • Dyer, J. L., Mote, T. L., (2006). Spatial variability and trends in observed snow depth over North America, Geophys Res Lett, 33, L16503.
  • Helsel, D. R., Hirsch, R. M., (1988). Applicability of the t-Test for Detecting Trends in Water Quality Variables by Robert H. Montgomery and Jim C. Loftis. J Am Water Resour Assoc, 24, 201–204.
  • IPCC. (2001). Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Houghton, J.T., et al., Cambridge University Press: Cambridge and New York. 823.
  • IPCC. (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S., et al., Cambridge University Press: Cambridge and New York. 996.
  • İçağa, Y., (1994). Analysis of trends in water quality using nonparametric methods. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, İzmir.
  • Kâhya, E., Kalaycı, S., (2004). Trend analysis of stream flow in Turkey, J Hydrol, 289, 128–144.
  • Kumar, N., Tischbein, B., Beg, M. K., (2019). Multiple trend analysis of rainfall and temperature for a monsoon dominated catchment in India, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 131, 1019–1033.
  • Kunkel, K. E., Robinson, D. A., Champion, S., Yin, X., Estilow, T., Frankson, R. M., (2016). Trends and Extremes in Northern Hemisphere Snow Characteristic, Curr Clim Chang Rep, 2, 65–73.
  • Lettenmaier, D. P., (1976). Detection of trends in water qualitiy data from records with dependent observations, Water Resour Res, 12, 5, 1037-1046.
  • Limsakul, A., Singhruck, P., (2016). Long-term trends and variability of total and extreme precipitation in Thailand, Atmos Res, 169, 301–317.
  • Liu, R. Q., Jacobi, C., Hoffmann, P., Stober, G., Merzlyakov, E. G., (2010). A piecewise linear model for detecting climatic trends and their structural changes with application to mesosphere/lower thermosphere winds over Collm, Germany, J Geophys Res, 115,1-10.
  • Özel, N., (2004). Türkiyedeki nehir akımları aylık verilerinin parametrik olmayan yöntemlerle trend analizi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi. Selçuk üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Konya.
  • Partal, T., Kâhya, E., (2006). Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data, Hydrol Process, 20, 2011–2026.
  • Pingale, S., Adamowski, J., Jat, M., Khare, D., (2015). Implications of spatial scale on climate change assessments, J Water and Land Dev, 26, 37–56.
  • Rahimzadeh, F., Pedrama, M., Krukb, M. C., (2014). An examination of the trends in sunshine hours over Iran, Meteorol Appl, 21, 309–315.
  • Sansigolo, C. A., Kayano, M. T., (2010). Trends of seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation in Southern Brazil for the 1913–2006 period, Theor Appl Climatol, 101, 209–216.
  • Sen, P. K., (1968). Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall’s Tao, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 63, 1379-1389.
  • Serrano, A., Garcia, A. J., Mateos, V. L., Cancillo, M. L., Garrido, J., (1999). Monthly modes of variation of presipitation over the ıberion peninsula, J. Climate, 12: 2894-919.
  • Sneyers, R., (1990). On the Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations. World Meteorogical Organization, No.415, Geneva. 192.
  • Subash, N., Ram Mohan, H. S., Sikka, A. K., (2011). Decadal frequency and trends of extreme excess/defcit rainfall during the monsoon season over diferent meteorological subdivisions of India, Hydrol Sci J, 56, 7, 1090–1109.
  • Tabari, H., Taye, M. T., Willems, P., (2015). Statistical assessment of precipitation trends in the upper Blue Nile River basin, Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, 29, 1751.
  • Zhang, X., Harvey, K. D., Hogg, W. D., Yuzyk. T. R., (2001). Trends in Canadian streamflow, Water Resour Res, 37, 987–998.
  • Türkeş, M., (2012). Türkiye’de gözlenen ve öngörülen iklim değişikliği, kuraklık ve çölleşme, Ankara Üniversitesi Çevrebilimleri Dergisi, 4, 2, 1-32.
  • Zhang, X., Vincent, L. A., Hogg, W. D., Niitsoo, A., (2000). Temperature and precipitation trends in Canada during the 20th century, Atmos Ocean, 38, 395–429.
  • Van Belle, G. and Hughes, J. P., (1984). Nonparametric tests for trend in water quality, Water Resour Res, 20, 1, 127-136.
  • Weng, S. P., (2010). Changes of diurnal temperature range in Taiwan and their large-scale associations: univariate and multivariate trend analyses, J Meteorol Soc Jpn Ser II, 88, 203–226.
  • Wijngaarden, V., Vincent, L. A. (2003). Trends in relative humidity in Canada from 1953–2003. Report prepared for Climate Research Barnchm Meteorological Service, Canada.

Trend Tespiti Yapılmış Akım Gözlem İstasyonlarında Güncel Durumun Belirlenmesi

Year 2020, Volume: 11 Issue: 2, 839 - 850, 15.06.2020
https://doi.org/10.24012/dumf.645717

Abstract

Bu çalışma ile, Elektrik İşleri Etüt İdaresi tarafından işletilen akım gözlem istasyonlarının 1964 ve 2000 yılları arasındaki verileri kullanılarak hemen hemen bütün aylarında trend tespiti yapılmış istasyonların 2000 yılından sonraki akım durumları incelenmiştir. Bu amaçla, Susurluk havzası sınırları içerisinde yer alan 311 numaralı istasyon, Sakarya havzasında yer alan 1203 ve 1224 numaralı istasyonlar, Yeşilırmak havzası içinde bulunan 1401 ve 1402 numaralı istasyonlar, Doğu Akdeniz havzasında yer alan 1714 numaralı istasyonlar kullanılmıştır. Akım verilerinin güncel durumlarının tespit edilebilmesi için istasyonların son 31 yıllık verisine Sen’in T ve Spearman’ın Rho testleri uygulanmıştır. Ayrıca verilerin bütün olarak değerlendirilebilmesi için aynı yöntemler tüm veriye de uygulanmıştır. Trend başlangıç yılları Mann-Kendall Mertebe Korelasyon testi kullanılarak, trendlerin lineer eğimleri, Sen’in trend eğim metodu kullanılarak hesaplanmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda, trend metotları aynı verinin farklı dönemlerine uygulandığında, tam tersi yönde eğilim belirlenebildiği ya da eğim değerlerinde belirgin değişimler yaşanabildiği görülmüştür. Özellikle uzun süreli veriye sahip istasyonlarda daha kısa süreli son dönem verisine de trend analizi uygulanarak güncel durumun araştırılması gerektiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Tespit edilen trendler çoğunlukla azalan yönde olup trend başlangıç yıllarında 1980’li yıllar çoğunluktadır.

References

  • Aksoy, B., (1999). Analysis of changes in sunshine duration data for Ankara, Turkey, Theor Appl Climatol, 64, 229–237.
  • Alobaidi, A .H., (2015). Analysis of relative humidity in Iraq for the period 1951-2010, Int J Sci Res Publ, 5, 5, 515-524.
  • Chattopadhyay, N., Hulme, M., (1997). Evaporation and potential evapotranspiration in India under conditions of recent and future climate change, Agric For Meteorol, 87, 55-73.
  • Chiew, F. H. S., McMahon, T. A., (1993). Detection of trend or change in annual flow of Australian rivers, Int J Climatol., 13, 643–653.
  • Dash, S. K., Jenamani, R. K., Kalsi, S.R., Panda, S. K., (2007). Some evidence of climate change in twentieth-century India, Clim Chang, 85, 299–321.
  • Douglas, E. M., Vogel, R. M. and Kroll, C. N., (2000). Trends in foods and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation, J Hydrol, 240, 90–105.
  • DSİ, (2019). Akım gözlem yıllıkları, http://www.dsi.gov.tr/faaliyetler/akim-gozlem-yilliklari, (1.10.2019).
  • Duhan, D., Pandey, A., (2013). Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of precipitation during 1901–2002 at Madhya Pradesh, India, Atmos Res, 122,136–149.
  • Dyer, J. L., Mote, T. L., (2006). Spatial variability and trends in observed snow depth over North America, Geophys Res Lett, 33, L16503.
  • Helsel, D. R., Hirsch, R. M., (1988). Applicability of the t-Test for Detecting Trends in Water Quality Variables by Robert H. Montgomery and Jim C. Loftis. J Am Water Resour Assoc, 24, 201–204.
  • IPCC. (2001). Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Houghton, J.T., et al., Cambridge University Press: Cambridge and New York. 823.
  • IPCC. (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S., et al., Cambridge University Press: Cambridge and New York. 996.
  • İçağa, Y., (1994). Analysis of trends in water quality using nonparametric methods. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, İzmir.
  • Kâhya, E., Kalaycı, S., (2004). Trend analysis of stream flow in Turkey, J Hydrol, 289, 128–144.
  • Kumar, N., Tischbein, B., Beg, M. K., (2019). Multiple trend analysis of rainfall and temperature for a monsoon dominated catchment in India, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 131, 1019–1033.
  • Kunkel, K. E., Robinson, D. A., Champion, S., Yin, X., Estilow, T., Frankson, R. M., (2016). Trends and Extremes in Northern Hemisphere Snow Characteristic, Curr Clim Chang Rep, 2, 65–73.
  • Lettenmaier, D. P., (1976). Detection of trends in water qualitiy data from records with dependent observations, Water Resour Res, 12, 5, 1037-1046.
  • Limsakul, A., Singhruck, P., (2016). Long-term trends and variability of total and extreme precipitation in Thailand, Atmos Res, 169, 301–317.
  • Liu, R. Q., Jacobi, C., Hoffmann, P., Stober, G., Merzlyakov, E. G., (2010). A piecewise linear model for detecting climatic trends and their structural changes with application to mesosphere/lower thermosphere winds over Collm, Germany, J Geophys Res, 115,1-10.
  • Özel, N., (2004). Türkiyedeki nehir akımları aylık verilerinin parametrik olmayan yöntemlerle trend analizi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi. Selçuk üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Konya.
  • Partal, T., Kâhya, E., (2006). Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data, Hydrol Process, 20, 2011–2026.
  • Pingale, S., Adamowski, J., Jat, M., Khare, D., (2015). Implications of spatial scale on climate change assessments, J Water and Land Dev, 26, 37–56.
  • Rahimzadeh, F., Pedrama, M., Krukb, M. C., (2014). An examination of the trends in sunshine hours over Iran, Meteorol Appl, 21, 309–315.
  • Sansigolo, C. A., Kayano, M. T., (2010). Trends of seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation in Southern Brazil for the 1913–2006 period, Theor Appl Climatol, 101, 209–216.
  • Sen, P. K., (1968). Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall’s Tao, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 63, 1379-1389.
  • Serrano, A., Garcia, A. J., Mateos, V. L., Cancillo, M. L., Garrido, J., (1999). Monthly modes of variation of presipitation over the ıberion peninsula, J. Climate, 12: 2894-919.
  • Sneyers, R., (1990). On the Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations. World Meteorogical Organization, No.415, Geneva. 192.
  • Subash, N., Ram Mohan, H. S., Sikka, A. K., (2011). Decadal frequency and trends of extreme excess/defcit rainfall during the monsoon season over diferent meteorological subdivisions of India, Hydrol Sci J, 56, 7, 1090–1109.
  • Tabari, H., Taye, M. T., Willems, P., (2015). Statistical assessment of precipitation trends in the upper Blue Nile River basin, Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, 29, 1751.
  • Zhang, X., Harvey, K. D., Hogg, W. D., Yuzyk. T. R., (2001). Trends in Canadian streamflow, Water Resour Res, 37, 987–998.
  • Türkeş, M., (2012). Türkiye’de gözlenen ve öngörülen iklim değişikliği, kuraklık ve çölleşme, Ankara Üniversitesi Çevrebilimleri Dergisi, 4, 2, 1-32.
  • Zhang, X., Vincent, L. A., Hogg, W. D., Niitsoo, A., (2000). Temperature and precipitation trends in Canada during the 20th century, Atmos Ocean, 38, 395–429.
  • Van Belle, G. and Hughes, J. P., (1984). Nonparametric tests for trend in water quality, Water Resour Res, 20, 1, 127-136.
  • Weng, S. P., (2010). Changes of diurnal temperature range in Taiwan and their large-scale associations: univariate and multivariate trend analyses, J Meteorol Soc Jpn Ser II, 88, 203–226.
  • Wijngaarden, V., Vincent, L. A. (2003). Trends in relative humidity in Canada from 1953–2003. Report prepared for Climate Research Barnchm Meteorological Service, Canada.
There are 35 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Nadire Üçler 0000-0001-6407-121X

Publication Date June 15, 2020
Submission Date November 12, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 11 Issue: 2

Cite

IEEE N. Üçler, “Trend Tespiti Yapılmış Akım Gözlem İstasyonlarında Güncel Durumun Belirlenmesi”, DUJE, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 839–850, 2020, doi: 10.24012/dumf.645717.
DUJE tarafından yayınlanan tüm makaleler, Creative Commons Atıf 4.0 Uluslararası Lisansı ile lisanslanmıştır. Bu, orijinal eser ve kaynağın uygun şekilde belirtilmesi koşuluyla, herkesin eseri kopyalamasına, yeniden dağıtmasına, yeniden düzenlemesine, iletmesine ve uyarlamasına izin verir. 24456