Linking fertility, female employment, and development to the sustainable development goals: Evidence from panel data

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the causal relationship between socioeconomic indicators and fertility, with a particular focus on how female labor force participation, income, education, and human development interact with demographic trends. Maternal and child health indicators, as outlined within the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), serve as the conceptual foundation for this research. The analysis covers 15 countries, selected according to their development levels, using panel data from 2000 to 2020. The Dumitrescu and Hurlin panel Granger causality test was applied to examine the direction of causality between variables, including female labor force participation (LAB), gross domestic product (GDP), education (EDU), fertility (FRT), and the Human Development Index (HDI). The results reveal a unidirectional causal relationship running from HDI to FRT and from LAB to HDI. These findings suggest that human development plays an important role in shaping fertility dynamics, while female labor force participation contributes to broader human development outcomes. The relationship between demographic indicators and development appears to be multidimensional and influenced by socioeconomic and policy contexts. The findings highlight the need for policies that enhance women’s working conditions, expand their access to education, and strengthen their presence in economic life. Such measures are essential for achieving sustainable development outcomes and advancing gender equality. This study provides empirical evidence on the directional causal links between human development, labor participation, and fertility using a cross-country panel approach.

Keywords

• Fertility
• employment
• human development index
• sustainable development goals
• Dumitrescu and Hurlin Granger causality test

Doğurganlığı, kadın istihdamını ve kalkınmayı sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedefleriyle ilişkilendirme: Panel verilerinden elde edilen kanıtlar

Abstract

Bu çalışma, sosyoekonomik göstergeler ile doğurganlık arasındaki nedensel ilişkiyi araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır; özellikle kadın işgücüne katılımı, gelir, eğitim ve insani kalkınmanın demografik eğilimlerle nasıl etkileşimde bulunduğuna odaklanmaktadır. Birleşmiş Milletler Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları (SKA) çerçevesinde belirtilen anne ve çocuk sağlığı göstergeleri, bu araştırmanın kavramsal temelini oluşturmaktadır. Analiz, 2000-2020 yılları arasındaki panel verilerini kullanarak, kalkınma düzeylerine göre seçilen 15 ülkeyi kapsamaktadır. Dumitrescu ve Hurlin panel Granger nedensellik testi, kadın işgücüne katılımı (LAB), gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYİH), eğitim (EDU), doğurganlık (FRT) ve İnsani Kalkınma Endeksi (HDI) dahil olmak üzere değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik yönünü incelemek için uygulanmıştır. Sonuçlar, HDI'den FRT'ye ve LAB'den HDI'ye doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik olduğunu göstermektedir. Gelir, eğitim ve sağlık hizmetlerine erişimdeki artışlar, doğurganlık oranlarında azalmayla ilişkilidir. Kadınların işgücü piyasasına katılımının hem ekonomik büyümeye hem de toplumsal refaha olumlu katkıda bulunduğu görülmektedir. İnsan gelişimi, demografik göstergeler ve kadınların işgücüne katılımı arasındaki etkileşim dinamiktir ve politika çerçevelerinden etkilenir. Bulgular, kadınların çalışma koşullarını iyileştiren, eğitime erişimlerini genişleten ve ekonomik hayattaki varlıklarını güçlendiren politikalara duyulan ihtiyacı vurgulamaktadır. Bu tür önlemler, sürdürülebilir kalkınma sonuçlarına ulaşmak ve cinsiyet eşitliğini ilerletmek için elzemdir. Bu çalışma, ülkeler arası panel yaklaşımını kullanarak insan gelişimi, işgücüne katılım ve doğurganlık arasındaki yönlü nedensel bağlantılara ilişkin ampirik kanıtlar sunmaktadır.

Keywords

• Doğurganlık
• istihdam
• insani gelişme endeksi
• sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedefleri
• Dumitrescu ve Hurlin Granger nedensellik testi

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