THE IMPACT OF EXTERNAL DEBT, POPULATION GROWTH AND INFLATION ON UNEMPLOYMENT: EVIDENCE FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between external debt, population growth, and inflation with unemployment in 26 developing countries. The study uses data from 2010 to 2021 and panel data models (fixed, random, and pooled) to analyze the relationship between the variables. Results show that external debt has a significant and positive impact on unemployment across all three models. Similarly, GDP growth has a reducing and significant impact on the unemployment rate, which shows high employment elasticity of growth in the case of these 26 developing countries. Another important finding of the study is that foreign direct investment, inflation, and population growth have a non-significant impact on unemployment. The paper suggests robust macroeconomic policies and effective debt management in these developing countries to address the issue of unemployment.

Keywords

• External Debt
• Unemployment
• Panel Data
• Panel Unit Roots

DIŞ BORÇ, NÜFUS ARTIŞI VE ENFLASYONUN İŞSİZLİK ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELERDEN KANITLAR

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 26 gelişmekte olan ülkede dış borç, nüfus artışı ve enflasyon ile işsizlik arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktadır. Çalışma, değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiyi analiz etmek için 2010-2021 yılları arasındaki verileri ve panel veri modellerini (Sabit Etkiler Modeli, Rassal Etkiler Modeli ve Pooled OLS Modeli) kullanmaktadır. Sonuçlar, dış borcun her üç modelde de işsizlik üzerinde anlamlı ve pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Benzer şekilde, GSYH büyümesinin işsizlik oranı üzerinde azaltıcı ve anlamlı bir etkisi vardır, bu da söz konusu 26 gelişmekte olan ülke için büyümenin istihdam esnekliğinin yüksek olduğunu göstermektedir. Çalışmanın bir diğer önemli bulgusu ise doğrudan yabancı yatırım, enflasyon ve nüfus artışının işsizlik üzerinde anlamlı olmayan bir etkiye sahip olmasıdır. Çalışma, işsizlik sorununu ele almak için bu gelişmekte olan ülkelerde sağlam makroekonomik politikalar ve etkin borç yönetimi önermektedir.

Keywords

• Dış Borç
• İşsizlik
• Panel Veri
• Panel Birim Kökler

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