THE VOLUME OF FOREIGN TRADE AND RELATIONS OF CURRENCY ARDL BOUND TESTING ANALYSIS (TURKEY EXAMPLE)

Abstract

The study aims to produce scientific results for policymakers. Theoretical studies are consistent with the results obtained in this study. The USD / TL parity used in the analysis was used as the dependent variable, and import and export data were used as independent variables. Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey from the Electronic Data Dissemination System (EDDS) has received data set covering the period 2013M01-2020M07 and consists of 91 observation posts. The autoregressive Delayed Distribution Model (ARDL) was preferred in the analyzes because the data were stable to different degrees. As a result of the statistical analysis, a cointegration relationship was found between variables according to the estimated model, but the long-term relationship was not found significant according to the "P" value. When the values calculated according to the Bayesian approach are interpreted, it can be said that there is a long-term negative relationship between the dependent variable exchange rate and the import of the independent variables. It can be said that there is a positive relationship between exchange rate and exports. As a result, according to the findings of the research, a consistent relationship with long-term cointegration and theory was found. However, due to the difference in the results, it cannot be mentioned in the studies in the literature.

Keywords

• ARDL Bounds Test
• Conventional Exchange Rate Theory
• Foreign Trade and Exchange Rate Relationship

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