Conference Paper
BibTex RIS Cite
Year 2020, Proceedings of The Third Economics, Business And Organization Research (EBOR) Conference, 466 - 477, 31.12.2020

Abstract

References

  • Aktaş, C. (2010). Türkiye’de Reel Döviz Kuru İle İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki İlişkinin Var Tekniğiyle Analizi, ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6 (11), 123-140.
  • Als, J. Oskooee, M.B. (1995). Do Devaluations Improve or Worsen the Terms of Trade? Journal of Economic Studies, 22(6),16-25.
  • Altıntaş, H. Rahmi, Ç. (2008). Türkiye’de Dış Ticaret Belgesi Belirleyicilerinin Sınır Testi Yaklaşımıyla Öngörülmesi: 1989-2005. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 63(4), 29-64.
  • Arize, A.C. (1997). Foreign Trade and Exchange-Rate Risk in the G–7 Countries: Cointegration and Error-Correction Models. Review of Financial Economics, 6(1), 95-112.
  • Arslan, C. (2005). Döviz Kuru Riski ve Yönetimi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Ankara Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Baek, J. (2014). Exchange Rate Effects on Korea–U.S. Bilateral Trade: A New Look. Research in Economics, 68(3), 214–221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2014.05.002
  • Barak, D. Naimoğlu, M. (2018). Reel Döviz Kurunun Dış Ticaret Üzerindeki Etkisi: Kırılgan Beşli Örneği, Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(2) ss: 82-95, ISSN: 2564-6931. DOI: 10.25287/ohuiibf.396831 http://dergipark.gov.tr/ohuiibf/
  • Baum, C.F. Çağlayan, M. ve Özkan, N. (2004). Nonlinear Effects of Exchange Volatility on the Volume of Bilateral Exports, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19, 1–23.
  • Baxter, M. M. Kouparitsas, A. (2006). What Determines Bilateral Trade Flows? NBER Working Papers Nu: 12188.
  • Bilgin, M.H. (2004). Döviz Kuru İşsizlik İlişkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir İnceleme, Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi (8), 80- 94.
  • Clark, P. Taminise, N. Wei, S.J. Sadikow, A. Zeng, L. (2004). Exchange Rate Volatility And Trade Flows-Some New Evidence, IMF Research Department.
  • Clark, P.B. (1973). Uncertainity, Exchange Risk, and the Level of International Trade, Western Economic Journal, 11(3), 302-313.
  • Dellas, H. Zilberfarb, B. Z. (1993). Real Exchange Rate Volatility and İnternational Trade: A Re-Examination of the Theory. Southern Economic Journal, 59, 641-647.
  • Dinler, Z. (2007). İktisat. Bursa: Ekin Kitabevi.
  • Either W. (1973). International Trade And The Forward Exchange Markets, American Economic Review, 63(3), 494-503.
  • Ertek, T. (2007). Temel Ekonomi. İstanbul: Beta Yayınları.
  • Hodge, D. (2005). The Effect Of Exchange Rate Volatility On Trade And Employment: A Brief Review Of Literature, Employment Growth&Development Intiative, Human Sciences Resource Council. http://www.hsrc.ac.za/en/research-data/ktree-doc/1308 Et. 28.09.2020
  • Hooper, P. Kohlhagen, S. (1978). The Effect of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Prices and Volume of International Trade. Journal of International Economics, 8, 483-511.
  • Koch, P.D. Rosensweigh, J.A. (1992). The Dollar and the US Terms of Trade, Journal of Macroeconomics, 14, 467-486.
  • Krugman, P. Obstfeld, M. (2003). International Economics: Theory And Policy, Sixth Edition, Addison Wesley World Student Series.WP Nu:4, Worldbank.
  • MacKinnon, J.G. (2006). Critical Values for Cointegration Tests. Queen’s Economics Department Working Paper No. 1227.
  • Mckenzie, M.D. (1999). The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows. Journal of Economic Surveys, 13(1), 71–106.
  • Nam, K.K.S. Arize, A.C. (2006). Mean Reversion of Short-Horizon Stock Returns: Asymmetry Property. Rev Quant Finan Acc 26, 137–163. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-006-7213-0
  • Pesaran, M.H. Shin, Y. Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. doi:10.1002/jae.616
  • Petrović, P. Gligorić, M. (2010). Exchange Rate and Trade Balance: J-Curve Effect, Panoeconomicus, 1, pp. 23-41, 2010.
  • Salvatore, D. (2019). International Economics. 13th. Ed. Widely Publish. ISBN: 978-1-119-55492-9 (PBK).
  • Savvides, A. (1992). Unanticipated Exchange Rate Variability and the Growth of International Trade. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 3, 446–463.
  • Sercu, P. Uppal, R. (2003). Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade: A General-Equilibrium Analysis. European Economic Review, 47(3), 429-441.
  • Seyidoğlu, H. (2007). Uluslararası İktisat Teori Politika ve Uygulama (Geliştirilmiş 16. baskı). İstanbul: Güzem Can Yayınları.
  • Takaendase, P. Tsheole, T. Aziakpono, M. (2005). Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Its Effect On Trade Flows: New Evidence From South Africa, The Biennial Conference of The Economic Society of South Africa, Durban, 1-20.
  • Vergil, H. Erdoğan, S. (2009). Döviz Kuru – Dış Ticaret Dengesi İlişkisi: Türkiye oÖrneği. ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. (5) 9, 35-57.
  • Wang, K.L. Barrett, C.B. (2007). Estimating the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export Volumes. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Vol. 32, No. 2 (August 2007), pp. 225-255 (31 pages), Published By: Western Agricultural Economics Association, https://www.jstor.org/stable/40987362
  • Yılmaz, Ö. Kaya, V. (2007). İhracat, İthalat ve Reel Döviz Kuru İlişkisi: Türkiye İçin Bir VAR Modeli. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi. 22(250), 69-84. 17 Aralık 2014, http://www.iif.com.tr/index.php/iif/article/

THE VOLUME OF FOREIGN TRADE AND RELATIONS OF CURRENCY ARDL BOUND TESTING ANALYSIS (TURKEY EXAMPLE)

Year 2020, Proceedings of The Third Economics, Business And Organization Research (EBOR) Conference, 466 - 477, 31.12.2020

Abstract

The study aims to produce scientific results for policymakers. Theoretical studies are consistent with the results obtained in this study. The USD / TL parity used in the analysis was used as the dependent variable, and import and export data were used as independent variables. Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey from the Electronic Data Dissemination System (EDDS) has received data set covering the period 2013M01-2020M07 and consists of 91 observation posts. The autoregressive Delayed Distribution Model (ARDL) was preferred in the analyzes because the data were stable to different degrees.
As a result of the statistical analysis, a cointegration relationship was found between variables according to the estimated model, but the long-term relationship was not found significant according to the "P" value. When the values calculated according to the Bayesian approach are interpreted, it can be said that there is a long-term negative relationship between the dependent variable exchange rate and the import of the independent variables. It can be said that there is a positive relationship between exchange rate and exports.
As a result, according to the findings of the research, a consistent relationship with long-term cointegration and theory was found. However, due to the difference in the results, it cannot be mentioned in the studies in the literature.

References

  • Aktaş, C. (2010). Türkiye’de Reel Döviz Kuru İle İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki İlişkinin Var Tekniğiyle Analizi, ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6 (11), 123-140.
  • Als, J. Oskooee, M.B. (1995). Do Devaluations Improve or Worsen the Terms of Trade? Journal of Economic Studies, 22(6),16-25.
  • Altıntaş, H. Rahmi, Ç. (2008). Türkiye’de Dış Ticaret Belgesi Belirleyicilerinin Sınır Testi Yaklaşımıyla Öngörülmesi: 1989-2005. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 63(4), 29-64.
  • Arize, A.C. (1997). Foreign Trade and Exchange-Rate Risk in the G–7 Countries: Cointegration and Error-Correction Models. Review of Financial Economics, 6(1), 95-112.
  • Arslan, C. (2005). Döviz Kuru Riski ve Yönetimi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Ankara Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Baek, J. (2014). Exchange Rate Effects on Korea–U.S. Bilateral Trade: A New Look. Research in Economics, 68(3), 214–221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2014.05.002
  • Barak, D. Naimoğlu, M. (2018). Reel Döviz Kurunun Dış Ticaret Üzerindeki Etkisi: Kırılgan Beşli Örneği, Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(2) ss: 82-95, ISSN: 2564-6931. DOI: 10.25287/ohuiibf.396831 http://dergipark.gov.tr/ohuiibf/
  • Baum, C.F. Çağlayan, M. ve Özkan, N. (2004). Nonlinear Effects of Exchange Volatility on the Volume of Bilateral Exports, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19, 1–23.
  • Baxter, M. M. Kouparitsas, A. (2006). What Determines Bilateral Trade Flows? NBER Working Papers Nu: 12188.
  • Bilgin, M.H. (2004). Döviz Kuru İşsizlik İlişkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir İnceleme, Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi (8), 80- 94.
  • Clark, P. Taminise, N. Wei, S.J. Sadikow, A. Zeng, L. (2004). Exchange Rate Volatility And Trade Flows-Some New Evidence, IMF Research Department.
  • Clark, P.B. (1973). Uncertainity, Exchange Risk, and the Level of International Trade, Western Economic Journal, 11(3), 302-313.
  • Dellas, H. Zilberfarb, B. Z. (1993). Real Exchange Rate Volatility and İnternational Trade: A Re-Examination of the Theory. Southern Economic Journal, 59, 641-647.
  • Dinler, Z. (2007). İktisat. Bursa: Ekin Kitabevi.
  • Either W. (1973). International Trade And The Forward Exchange Markets, American Economic Review, 63(3), 494-503.
  • Ertek, T. (2007). Temel Ekonomi. İstanbul: Beta Yayınları.
  • Hodge, D. (2005). The Effect Of Exchange Rate Volatility On Trade And Employment: A Brief Review Of Literature, Employment Growth&Development Intiative, Human Sciences Resource Council. http://www.hsrc.ac.za/en/research-data/ktree-doc/1308 Et. 28.09.2020
  • Hooper, P. Kohlhagen, S. (1978). The Effect of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Prices and Volume of International Trade. Journal of International Economics, 8, 483-511.
  • Koch, P.D. Rosensweigh, J.A. (1992). The Dollar and the US Terms of Trade, Journal of Macroeconomics, 14, 467-486.
  • Krugman, P. Obstfeld, M. (2003). International Economics: Theory And Policy, Sixth Edition, Addison Wesley World Student Series.WP Nu:4, Worldbank.
  • MacKinnon, J.G. (2006). Critical Values for Cointegration Tests. Queen’s Economics Department Working Paper No. 1227.
  • Mckenzie, M.D. (1999). The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows. Journal of Economic Surveys, 13(1), 71–106.
  • Nam, K.K.S. Arize, A.C. (2006). Mean Reversion of Short-Horizon Stock Returns: Asymmetry Property. Rev Quant Finan Acc 26, 137–163. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-006-7213-0
  • Pesaran, M.H. Shin, Y. Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. doi:10.1002/jae.616
  • Petrović, P. Gligorić, M. (2010). Exchange Rate and Trade Balance: J-Curve Effect, Panoeconomicus, 1, pp. 23-41, 2010.
  • Salvatore, D. (2019). International Economics. 13th. Ed. Widely Publish. ISBN: 978-1-119-55492-9 (PBK).
  • Savvides, A. (1992). Unanticipated Exchange Rate Variability and the Growth of International Trade. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 3, 446–463.
  • Sercu, P. Uppal, R. (2003). Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade: A General-Equilibrium Analysis. European Economic Review, 47(3), 429-441.
  • Seyidoğlu, H. (2007). Uluslararası İktisat Teori Politika ve Uygulama (Geliştirilmiş 16. baskı). İstanbul: Güzem Can Yayınları.
  • Takaendase, P. Tsheole, T. Aziakpono, M. (2005). Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Its Effect On Trade Flows: New Evidence From South Africa, The Biennial Conference of The Economic Society of South Africa, Durban, 1-20.
  • Vergil, H. Erdoğan, S. (2009). Döviz Kuru – Dış Ticaret Dengesi İlişkisi: Türkiye oÖrneği. ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. (5) 9, 35-57.
  • Wang, K.L. Barrett, C.B. (2007). Estimating the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export Volumes. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Vol. 32, No. 2 (August 2007), pp. 225-255 (31 pages), Published By: Western Agricultural Economics Association, https://www.jstor.org/stable/40987362
  • Yılmaz, Ö. Kaya, V. (2007). İhracat, İthalat ve Reel Döviz Kuru İlişkisi: Türkiye İçin Bir VAR Modeli. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi. 22(250), 69-84. 17 Aralık 2014, http://www.iif.com.tr/index.php/iif/article/
There are 33 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Finance, Business Administration
Journal Section Conference Full Paper Proceedings
Authors

Ersin Sünbül

Publication Date December 31, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Proceedings of The Third Economics, Business And Organization Research (EBOR) Conference

Cite

APA Sünbül, E. (2020). THE VOLUME OF FOREIGN TRADE AND RELATIONS OF CURRENCY ARDL BOUND TESTING ANALYSIS (TURKEY EXAMPLE). Economics Business and Organization Research466-477.