Ranking Economic Fragility in the Fragile Five Countries: A Multi-Criteria Analysis Using TOPSIS and VIKOR

Year 2023, Volume: 4 Issue: 2, 26 - 41, 20.06.2025

Deniz Altun

Abstract

The integration of the global economy and increasing capital mobility has significantly impacted emerging markets, especially following the 2008 global financial crisis. This study evaluates the economic performances of the countries identified as the “Fragile Five” -Turkey, Brazil, India, Indonesia, and South Africa- using Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods such as TOPSIS and VIKOR. The analysis incorporates six macroeconomic indicators as criteria: current account balance (as a percentage of GDP), inflation rate (consumer prices), GDP growth rate (annual percentage), unemployment rate (as a percentage of total labor force), external debt-to-GDP ratio, and total reserves (including gold, in current US dollars). Through this evaluation, the fragility rankings of the Fragile Five countries are determined. The findings are assessed in terms of strategies that these countries could implement to reduce economic vulnerability and provide guidance for investors.

Keywords

Fragile Five, Economic Performance, Decision Making, TOPSIS, VIKOR

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