Probability Assessment in Future Scenarios

Abstract

Probabilistic decision making in scenario planning has long been a controversial topic in the global literature. After the scenarios are developed, how the decision-making process will take place and whether scenario possibilities can be included in the decision process is an important issue. There are two different views on the subject in the literature, and scenario studies are carried out in line with these two different views. While researchers who want to focus on a single future assign probabilities to scenarios, those who think that each of the alternative futures should be evaluated oppose probabilistic decision making. In this study, first of all, the thoughts of two opposing views are included, and then the differences between forecast and foresight and deductive and inductive reasoning are revealed. In the conclusion, the use of probability in scenarios was evaluated in terms of the distinction between forecast and foresight and the differences between deductive and inductive reasoning.

Keywords

• Scenario Planning
• Probability
• Forecast
• Foresight
• Reasoning
• Deduction
• Induction

Gelecek Senaryolarında Olasılık Değerlendirmesi

Abstract

Senaryo planlamada olasılıksal karar verme, evrensel literatürde uzun süredir tartışmaya açık bir konu olmuştur. Senaryolar geliştirildikten sonra karar verme aşamasının nasıl gerçekleşeceği ve senaryo olasılıklarının karar süreçlerine dahil edilip edilemeyeceği önemli bir konu olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Literatürde konu ile ilgili iki farklı görüş mevcuttur ve senaryo çalışmaları bu iki farklı görüş doğrultusunda gerçekleşmektedir. Tek bir geleceğe odaklanmak isteyen araştırmacılar senaryolara olasılık ataması gerçekleştirirken, alternatif geleceklerin her birinin değerlendirmeye alınması gerektiğini düşünenler ise olasılıksal karar vermeye karşı çıkmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, öncelikle iki karşıt görüşün düşüncelerine yer verilmiş, daha sonra tahmin ve öngörü ile tümdengelimli ve tümevarımsal akıl yürütmenin farkları ortaya konulmuştur. Sonuç kısmında ise senaryolarda olasılık kullanımı, tahmin ve öngörü ayrımı ile tümdengelimli ve tümevarımsal akıl yürütmenin farkları açısından değerlendirilmiştir.

Keywords

• senaryo planlama
• olasılık
• tahmin
• öngörü
• akıl yürütme
• tümdengelim
• tümevarım

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