Üst Orta Gelirli Ülkelerde Ekonomik Büyüme ile Finansal Gelişme Arasındaki Nedensellik Yönü

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1980-2017 dönemi için Üst Orta Gelirli ülkelerde ekonomik büyüme ve finansal gelişme arasındaki ilişkiyi Toda-Yamamoto'nun panel (FMOLS, DOLS ve GMM) ve panel Granger-nedensellik testleri kullanarak araştırmaktır. Sonuçlar, özel sektöre verilen yurtiçi kredinin (GSYİH yüzdesi) ve geniş paranın (GSYİH yüzdesi) ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumlu bir etkisi olduğunu doğruladı. Sonuç olarak finansal gelişmenin ekonomik büyümeyi hızlandırdığı söylenebilir. Ayrıca Ürdün, Fas, Belize, Botsvana, Çin, Guatemala, Paraguay, Peru ve Tayland'da ekonomik büyümeden finansal gelişmeye doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Cezayir, Mısır, Suudi Arabistan, Dominik Cumhuriyeti, Malezya, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye'de finansal gelişmeden büyümeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır. Buna karşılık Umman, Tunus, Brezilya, Mauritius ve Meksika'da nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmamaktadır.

Keywords

• Ekonomik büyüme
• FMOLS
• Nedensellik
• Üst Orta Gelir
• Granger

The Direction of Causality between Economic Growth and Financial Development in Upper Middle-Income Countries

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic growth and financial development for the period 1980 - 2017 in Upper-Middle-Income countries by employing panel (FMOLS, DOLS and GMM) and panel Granger-causality tests by Toda–Yamamoto. The results confirmed that domestic credit to private sector (percentage of GDP) and broad money (percentage of GDP) have a positive effect on economic growth. As a result, it can be said that financial development accelerates economic growth. In addition, the results showed that unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development in the countries of Jordan, Morocco, Belize, Botswana, China, Guatemala, Paraguay, Peru, and Thailand. While, the unidirectional causal relationship is running from financial development to growth in the countries of Algeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Dominican Republic, Malaysia, South Africa and Turkey. In contrast, there is no causal relationship in Oman, Tunisia, Brazil, Mauritius and Mexico

Keywords

• Economic growth
• FMOLS
• Causality
• Upper Middle-Income
• Granger

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