Abstract
Bu çalışma, Avrupa
Komisyonu tarafından hesaplanan iktisadi duyarlılık göstergelerinin ve Ekonomik
Kalkınma ve İş birliği Örgütü tarafından hesaplanan bileşik öncü göstergelerin
oluşumunu incelemektedir. Çalışmanın amacı, bazı ülkeler için Avrupa Komisyonu
İktisadi Duyarlılık Göstergelerinin güncel tesadüfi performansını
değerlendirmek ve iktisadi eylemlerde döngüleri önceden tahmin edebilecek
duyarlılık göstergeleri oluşturma ihtimallerini araştırmaktır. Özel olarak da
aşağıdaki konular; Bileşen dizilerinin seçilmesi: ülkeler için standart veya en
iyi performans gösteren bileşenler, Bileşen dizilerinin ağırlık andırılması:
bireysel bileşenler veya kümeler için farklı veya eşit ağırlıklar, Döngüsel
genişliklerin normalleştirilmesi ve bileşen dizilerinin düzleştirilmesi, Bileşen
dizilerinin (hızlı-çok çabuk) ulaşılabilirliği ve revizyonları tartışılmıştır.
Keywords
Güven Endeksi İktisadi Yönelim Anketi Avrupa Komisyonu Bileşen Dizileri İktisadi Duyarlılık
References
- Adamowicz, E., S. Dudek and K. Walczyk 2002. The Use of Business Survey Data in Analyses and Short-term Forecasting, The Case of Poland. Presented at the 26th CIRET Conference, Taipei, October. Bodo, G., R. Golinelli, and G. Parigi. 2000. Forecasting industrial production in the euro area. Empirical Economics, 25(4), pp.541-561. Candemir, H.B. and H.B. Karabudak. 1994. The Search for a Business and/or Investment Confidence Index in Turkey. Selected Papers submitted to the 21st Ciret Conference 1993 in Stellenbosch, Studien 48. Cyert, M. R. 1988. The Economic Theory of Organization and the Firm. New York University Press. Dengiz, B., and C. Özcan. 1991. İktisadi Yönelim Anketi’nin Geçerliliğinin İncelenmesi Üzerine Bir Çalışma. Quarterly Bulletin of CBRT, 1991/II, pp.183-191. European Comission 2002. The Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, User Guide 2002. Ferenczi, B. and A. Reiff. 2000. The Role of Survey Data in the Forecasting Performance of Composite Leading Indicators - The Case of Hungarian Industrial Production. Submission to the 25th CIRET Conference, Paris, October. Gomez, V. and A. Maravall. 1998. Seasonal Adjustment and Signal Extraction in Economic Time Series. Banco de España – Servicio de Estudios Documento de Trabajo n.o 0002. Moser, C.A. and G. Kalton. 1972. Survey Methods in Social Investigation. 2nd edition, New York, Basic Books. Nilsson, R. 1999. Business Tendency Surveys and Cyclical Analysis. Business Tendency Surveys, Proceedings of the First Joint OECD-ADB Workshop, Manila, November. 2000. Confidence Indicators and Composite Indicators. Economic Surveys and Data Analysis, CIRET Conference Proceedings, Paris. 2003. Uses of Economic Indicators for Measuring Economic Trends. OECD/ESCAP Workshop on Composite Leading Indicators and Business Tendency Surveys, 24-26 February 2003, Bangkok. OECD 1997. Development of Business and Consumer Surveys in Central and Eastern Europe, Summary of Workshops 1991-1996. Transition Economies Division Statistics Directorate, Paris, February. 2000. Cyclical Analysis and Composite Indicators System User Guide, Paris. 2002. Economic Surveys and Data Analysis. CIRET Conference Proceedings, Paris 2000. 2003. Business Tendency Surveys: A Handbook. Oral, E. 2002. Inflation Expectations on the Basis of Qualitative Surveys. Presented at the 26th CIRET Conference, Taipei, October. Özdamar, K. 1997. Paket programlar ile İstatistiksel Veri Analizi, Anadolu Üniversitesi, Fen Fakültesi Yayınları. Pellissier, G.M. 2002. Measuring Business Confidence in South Africa. Presented at the 26th CIRET Conference, Taipei, October. Sutanto, A. 1999. Business Confidence Index, Consumer Confidence Index and Index of Leading Indicators: An Experiment for Indonesia. Business Tendency Surveys, Proceedings of the First Joint OECD-ADB Workshop, Manila, November. Yew-Kuang, N. 1992. Business confidence and depression prevention: A Mesoeconomic Perspective. American Economic Review , 82(2), pp.379-385.
Abstract
This study examines the formation of indicators of economic sensitivity
calculated by the European Commission and composite leading indicators
calculated by the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation. The
aim of the study is to evaluate the current random performance of the European
Commission's Economic Sensitivity Indicators for some countries and to
investigate the possibility of generating sensitivity indicators that can
predict cycles in economic actions. In particular, the following issues were
discussed ; Selection of component arrays: standard or best performing
components for countries,Weighting of component arrays: different or equal
weights for individual components or clusters,Normalization of cyclic
amplitudes and flattening of component arrays and Availability of component
sequences (fast-to-quick) and revisions.
Keywords
Confidence Index Business Tendency Survey European Commission Component Sequences Economic Sensitivity
References
- Adamowicz, E., S. Dudek and K. Walczyk 2002. The Use of Business Survey Data in Analyses and Short-term Forecasting, The Case of Poland. Presented at the 26th CIRET Conference, Taipei, October. Bodo, G., R. Golinelli, and G. Parigi. 2000. Forecasting industrial production in the euro area. Empirical Economics, 25(4), pp.541-561. Candemir, H.B. and H.B. Karabudak. 1994. The Search for a Business and/or Investment Confidence Index in Turkey. Selected Papers submitted to the 21st Ciret Conference 1993 in Stellenbosch, Studien 48. Cyert, M. R. 1988. The Economic Theory of Organization and the Firm. New York University Press. Dengiz, B., and C. Özcan. 1991. İktisadi Yönelim Anketi’nin Geçerliliğinin İncelenmesi Üzerine Bir Çalışma. Quarterly Bulletin of CBRT, 1991/II, pp.183-191. European Comission 2002. The Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, User Guide 2002. Ferenczi, B. and A. Reiff. 2000. The Role of Survey Data in the Forecasting Performance of Composite Leading Indicators - The Case of Hungarian Industrial Production. Submission to the 25th CIRET Conference, Paris, October. Gomez, V. and A. Maravall. 1998. Seasonal Adjustment and Signal Extraction in Economic Time Series. Banco de España – Servicio de Estudios Documento de Trabajo n.o 0002. Moser, C.A. and G. Kalton. 1972. Survey Methods in Social Investigation. 2nd edition, New York, Basic Books. Nilsson, R. 1999. Business Tendency Surveys and Cyclical Analysis. Business Tendency Surveys, Proceedings of the First Joint OECD-ADB Workshop, Manila, November. 2000. Confidence Indicators and Composite Indicators. Economic Surveys and Data Analysis, CIRET Conference Proceedings, Paris. 2003. Uses of Economic Indicators for Measuring Economic Trends. OECD/ESCAP Workshop on Composite Leading Indicators and Business Tendency Surveys, 24-26 February 2003, Bangkok. OECD 1997. Development of Business and Consumer Surveys in Central and Eastern Europe, Summary of Workshops 1991-1996. Transition Economies Division Statistics Directorate, Paris, February. 2000. Cyclical Analysis and Composite Indicators System User Guide, Paris. 2002. Economic Surveys and Data Analysis. CIRET Conference Proceedings, Paris 2000. 2003. Business Tendency Surveys: A Handbook. Oral, E. 2002. Inflation Expectations on the Basis of Qualitative Surveys. Presented at the 26th CIRET Conference, Taipei, October. Özdamar, K. 1997. Paket programlar ile İstatistiksel Veri Analizi, Anadolu Üniversitesi, Fen Fakültesi Yayınları. Pellissier, G.M. 2002. Measuring Business Confidence in South Africa. Presented at the 26th CIRET Conference, Taipei, October. Sutanto, A. 1999. Business Confidence Index, Consumer Confidence Index and Index of Leading Indicators: An Experiment for Indonesia. Business Tendency Surveys, Proceedings of the First Joint OECD-ADB Workshop, Manila, November. Yew-Kuang, N. 1992. Business confidence and depression prevention: A Mesoeconomic Perspective. American Economic Review , 82(2), pp.379-385.
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Subjects | Business Administration |
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | December 31, 2019 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2019 Volume: 3 Issue: 2 |
Econder International Academic Journal is an international, peer-reviewed multidisciplinary journal dedicated to publishing scholarly articles on all aspects of Economy and Business. Available online and published two times a year, the journal aims to become one of the leading platforms in the world for new findings and discussions of all fields of Economy and Business.
