OECD Ülkelerinde Panel Veri Stokastik Yakınsama Analizi: Panel Birim kök Testlerinden Kanıtları

Year 2017, Volume: 1 Issue: 1, 30 - 48, 01.12.2017

Gülten Dursun

Abstract

Bu çalışmada 20 OECD ülkesi içerisinde 1948-2010 ve 1900-2010 dönemine ait reel kişi başına GSYİH'nın stokastik yakınsama davranışı incelenmiştir. Bu amaçla son yıllarda geliştirilen Becker, Enders ve Lee(2006) tarafından önerilen Fourier IPS testi uygulanmıştır. Fourier KPSS durağanlık test bulguları her iki dönem için farklı sonuçlar üretmiştir. Analiz sonuçları 1948*2010 döneminde Avusturya, Belçika ve Japonya dışında tüm ülkeler için stokastik yakınsamayı destekler niteliktedir. Ayrıca dönemin tamamı için o-yakınsamasına ilişkşn standart sapma değerlerinin düşme eğiliminde olduğu gözlenmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre savaş sonrası dönem boyunca reel kişi başına gelir açığındaki farklılıkların 20 OECD ülkesinin çoğunda giderilmiş olduğu, uzun dönemde ülkeye özgü şokların reel kişi başına gelir üzerinde geçici etkiye sahip olduğu anlaşılmaktadır. 

Keywords

Stokastik Yakınsama Analizi, Doğrusal ve Doğrusal Olmayan Birim kök Testleri, OECD

Panel Data Stochastic Convergence Analysis In OECD Countries: Evidence From Panel Unit Root Tests

Abstract

This study investigates the stochastic convergence behaviour of real GDP per capita for the period 1948-2010 and 1900-2010 across the 20 OECD countries. For that purpose, the existence of stochastic convergence is estimated by technique basedon the Fourier function approach (FKPSS) stationary test developed by Becker, Enders and Lee(2006). As well as, Fouier IPS test was applied for the whole panel. The Fourier KPSS stationarity test results produced different results for both periods. While the results of the analysis strongly supported the stochaticcon vergence for all countires except Austria and Belgium for the period 1948-2010, it only supported for Austria, Canada, Fnland, France, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, UK and USA during 1900-2010. The Fourier IPS test results for the entire panel support a stochactic on vergence for both periods. It is also observed that the Standart deviation values for o-convergence tent to decrease for the whole period. According to the results obtained, it is the most important finding of this study that the differences in real per capita incomes during the post-war period are largely eliminated in the oECD countries and that long-term country-specific shocks have a temporary effect on real per capita income.

Keywords

Stochastic Convergence, Linear and Non Linear Unit Root Tests, OECD

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