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JAPONYA’DA KAMU BORCU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ (1980-2020)

Year 2022, Volume: 6 Issue: 9, 44 - 0, 30.01.2022

Abstract

Japonya dünyanın en gelişmiş ülkelerinden biri olup 1990’lı yıllardan itibaren ekonomik büyüme problemi yaşamaktadır. 2020 yılı sonu itibariyle dünyanın en yüksek kamu borcuna sahip Japonya da 1980-2020 dönemine ilişkin olarak; kamu borcu ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki ARDL testi ve Granger testi aracılığıyla araştırılmıştır. Öncelikle, çalışmada durağanlığın belirlenmesi için ADF, PP, KPSS birim kök testleri yapılmıştır. Birim kök testi sonuçlarına göre tüm verilerin düzeyde ve birinci farklarında durağan oldukları görülmüştür. Daha sonra seriler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığı eş-bütünleşme testi ile incelenmiştir. Seriler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Ampirik bulgular sonucunda; Japonya’da kamu borcu ve ekonomik büyüme arasında negatif bir ilişki olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Yapılan Granger nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre de kamu borcu ve ekonomik büyüme arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu saptanmıştır

References

  • Andersson , D., & Johansan C., (2014). Government Debt and Economic Growth: An Empirical Comparison Between Three Levels Of Debt Sweden, The United States And Japan, ErişimTarihi:12.02.2021 http://www.divaportal.org/smash/search.jsf?dswid=2713&searchType=SIMPLE&facesredirect=true&query=&af=%5B%5D&aq=%5B%5B%5D%5D&aqe=%5B%5D&aq2=%5B%5B%5D%5D.
  • Asteriou, D., Pilbeam, K. & Pratiwi, E.C., (2021). Public Debt And Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence For Asian Countries. Journal of Economics and Finance volume 45, pages270–287(2021).
  • Chudik A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran M.H., Raissi, M., (2017). Is There A Debt-Threshold Effect On Output Growth? Rev Econ Stat 99(1):135–150.
  • Eberhardt, M. P., &Andrea, F. (2015). Public Debt And Growth: Heterogeneity And Nonlinearity. Journal Of International Economics, 97(1), 45-58.
  • Fkuda, S.(2017). The Impacts Of Japan’s Negatıve Interest Rate Polıcy On Asıan Fınancıal Markets, Asian Development Bank Institute, ADBI Working Paper Series.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations By Econometric Models and Cross Spectral Methods, Econometrica.
  • Gómez-Puig M.&Sosvilla-Rivero S. (2015). Short-Run And Long-Run Effects Of Public Debt On Economic Performance: Evidence From EMU Countries. Available at SSRN 2660117.
  • Han, F., (2019) Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan.IMF Working Paper , WP/19/31.
  • Harding, R. & Giles, C. (2020). Lessons From Japan: Coping With Low Rates And İnflation After The Pandemic. https://www.ft.com/content/da9086f7-bfa5-4d1c-83d0-bea5fe41945d
  • Jacobs, J., Ogawa, K., Elmer S., Ichiro, T., (2020). Public Debt, Economic Growth and the Real Interest Rate: A Panel VAR Approach to EU and OECD Countries, Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(12), pages 1377-1394, March.
  • Johnston, M.,(2019). How Central Banks Monetize Government Debt How Central Banks Monetize Government Debt (investopedia.com).
  • Kempha, B. & Khan, N.Z., (2016).Government debt and economic growth in the G7 countries: are there any causal linkages Apllied Economic Letters Volume 23,2016.
  • Krugman, P.(2019). What is wrong in Japan, Erişim Tarihi: 12.02.2021, http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/nikkei.html.
  • Kurihara, Y.(2015). Debt and Economic Growth: The Case of Japan Journal of Economics Library www.kspjournals.org Volume 2 June 2015 Issue 2.
  • Lof M. & Malinen T. (2014). Does Sovereign Debt Weaken Economic Growth? A Panel VAR analysis. Economic Letters 122(3): 4.
  • Paseran, M. Hashem, Shin, Y., Smith, & Richard, J. (2001). Bounds Testing Aproaches to The Analysis of Level Relationships., Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326.
  • Stauskas, O.(2017). The Long-Run Relationship Between Public Debt and Economic Growth In Advanced Economies. Lund University Master’s Programme in Economics.
  • Zhongmin L. &Jia L., (2020).Public Debt And Economic Growth: Threshold Effect And İts İnfluence Factors. Applied Economic Letters Volume 28 2021,Issue3 Pages 208-212 |, 11.03. 2020.
  • Vighneswara, S.(2015). Government Debt and Economic Growth,Decomposing the Cause and Effect Relationship,ErişimTarihi:12.02.2021,SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2601874 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2601874.
  • Woo J., &Kumar, M.S., (2015). Public Debt and Growth. Economica 82:705–739.
  • World Bank (2016). World Development İndicators. Washington, D.C.

CAUSALİTY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GOVERNMENT DEBT AND ECONOMİC GROWTH IN JAPAN (1980-2020

Year 2022, Volume: 6 Issue: 9, 44 - 0, 30.01.2022

Abstract

apan is one of the most developed countries in the world and has been experiencing economic growth problems since the 1990s.İn this study; The relationship between public debt and economic growth over the period 1980-2020 has been investigated through ARDL test and Granger test.in Japan which has the highest public debt in the world as the end of the 2020 Firstly, ADF PP, KPSS unit root tests were used to determine stationarity of the series. According to the result of the tests All of the variables that we have used in this study do not have the same degree of stability Then while the existence of a long-term relationship between the series was examined by the co-integration test, and The long-term relationship between the series was found. As a result of empirical findings; It has been concluded that there is a negative relationship between public debt and economic growth in Japan. According to the results of the Granger causality test, it has been determined that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between public debt and economic growth.

References

  • Andersson , D., & Johansan C., (2014). Government Debt and Economic Growth: An Empirical Comparison Between Three Levels Of Debt Sweden, The United States And Japan, ErişimTarihi:12.02.2021 http://www.divaportal.org/smash/search.jsf?dswid=2713&searchType=SIMPLE&facesredirect=true&query=&af=%5B%5D&aq=%5B%5B%5D%5D&aqe=%5B%5D&aq2=%5B%5B%5D%5D.
  • Asteriou, D., Pilbeam, K. & Pratiwi, E.C., (2021). Public Debt And Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence For Asian Countries. Journal of Economics and Finance volume 45, pages270–287(2021).
  • Chudik A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran M.H., Raissi, M., (2017). Is There A Debt-Threshold Effect On Output Growth? Rev Econ Stat 99(1):135–150.
  • Eberhardt, M. P., &Andrea, F. (2015). Public Debt And Growth: Heterogeneity And Nonlinearity. Journal Of International Economics, 97(1), 45-58.
  • Fkuda, S.(2017). The Impacts Of Japan’s Negatıve Interest Rate Polıcy On Asıan Fınancıal Markets, Asian Development Bank Institute, ADBI Working Paper Series.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations By Econometric Models and Cross Spectral Methods, Econometrica.
  • Gómez-Puig M.&Sosvilla-Rivero S. (2015). Short-Run And Long-Run Effects Of Public Debt On Economic Performance: Evidence From EMU Countries. Available at SSRN 2660117.
  • Han, F., (2019) Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan.IMF Working Paper , WP/19/31.
  • Harding, R. & Giles, C. (2020). Lessons From Japan: Coping With Low Rates And İnflation After The Pandemic. https://www.ft.com/content/da9086f7-bfa5-4d1c-83d0-bea5fe41945d
  • Jacobs, J., Ogawa, K., Elmer S., Ichiro, T., (2020). Public Debt, Economic Growth and the Real Interest Rate: A Panel VAR Approach to EU and OECD Countries, Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(12), pages 1377-1394, March.
  • Johnston, M.,(2019). How Central Banks Monetize Government Debt How Central Banks Monetize Government Debt (investopedia.com).
  • Kempha, B. & Khan, N.Z., (2016).Government debt and economic growth in the G7 countries: are there any causal linkages Apllied Economic Letters Volume 23,2016.
  • Krugman, P.(2019). What is wrong in Japan, Erişim Tarihi: 12.02.2021, http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/nikkei.html.
  • Kurihara, Y.(2015). Debt and Economic Growth: The Case of Japan Journal of Economics Library www.kspjournals.org Volume 2 June 2015 Issue 2.
  • Lof M. & Malinen T. (2014). Does Sovereign Debt Weaken Economic Growth? A Panel VAR analysis. Economic Letters 122(3): 4.
  • Paseran, M. Hashem, Shin, Y., Smith, & Richard, J. (2001). Bounds Testing Aproaches to The Analysis of Level Relationships., Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326.
  • Stauskas, O.(2017). The Long-Run Relationship Between Public Debt and Economic Growth In Advanced Economies. Lund University Master’s Programme in Economics.
  • Zhongmin L. &Jia L., (2020).Public Debt And Economic Growth: Threshold Effect And İts İnfluence Factors. Applied Economic Letters Volume 28 2021,Issue3 Pages 208-212 |, 11.03. 2020.
  • Vighneswara, S.(2015). Government Debt and Economic Growth,Decomposing the Cause and Effect Relationship,ErişimTarihi:12.02.2021,SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2601874 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2601874.
  • Woo J., &Kumar, M.S., (2015). Public Debt and Growth. Economica 82:705–739.
  • World Bank (2016). World Development İndicators. Washington, D.C.
There are 21 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Bahadır Sinan 0000-0002-6588-7963

Early Pub Date January 5, 2022
Publication Date January 30, 2022
Submission Date November 23, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 6 Issue: 9

Cite

APA Sinan, B. (2022). JAPONYA’DA KAMU BORCU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ (1980-2020). Econharran, 6(9), 44.
AMA Sinan B. JAPONYA’DA KAMU BORCU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ (1980-2020). Econharran. January 2022;6(9):44.
Chicago Sinan, Bahadır. “JAPONYA’DA KAMU BORCU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ (1980-2020)”. Econharran 6, no. 9 (January 2022): 44.
EndNote Sinan B (January 1, 2022) JAPONYA’DA KAMU BORCU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ (1980-2020). Econharran 6 9 44.
IEEE B. Sinan, “JAPONYA’DA KAMU BORCU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ (1980-2020)”, Econharran, vol. 6, no. 9, p. 44, 2022.
ISNAD Sinan, Bahadır. “JAPONYA’DA KAMU BORCU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ (1980-2020)”. Econharran 6/9 (January 2022), 44.
JAMA Sinan B. JAPONYA’DA KAMU BORCU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ (1980-2020). Econharran. 2022;6:44.
MLA Sinan, Bahadır. “JAPONYA’DA KAMU BORCU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ (1980-2020)”. Econharran, vol. 6, no. 9, 2022, p. 44.
Vancouver Sinan B. JAPONYA’DA KAMU BORCU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ (1980-2020). Econharran. 2022;6(9):44.