THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY ON ENERGY CONSUMPTION MEDIATED BY FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Abstract

This study analyses the short- and long-term effects of economic policy uncertainty on total energy consumption in Turkey between 1997 and 2023, focusing particularly on the role of financial sector development as a mediator. As the included variables demonstrate different degrees of integration, the presence of long-term relationships was investigated via the ARDL bounds testing methodology. To avoid potential endogeneity and interaction bias between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and financial sector development (FSD), three separate models were developed. The effect of economic policy uncertainty on energy consumption is evaluated by Model 1. The results of the empirical study reveal that EPU has a statistically negative influence on total energy consumption in the long run. Model 2 explores the role of financial sector development and reveals a statistically significant, positive long-run relationship between financial development and energy consumption. Model 3 incorporates interaction terms to assess the mediating role of financial sector development in the EPU–energy consumption relationship. The estimated interaction coefficient (EPU × FSD) is positive and statistically considerable, indicating that financial sector development mitigates the contractionary impact of economic policy uncertainty on energy consumption. These findings imply that a more developed financial system in Türkiye could offset the adverse effects of policy-related uncertainty to some extent by supporting energy demand and facilitating investment activities. Therefore, improving coordination between the financial and energy sectors is recommended to enhance the effectiveness and sustainability of energy policies. This is because improved financial support mechanisms could help to mitigate the constraints on energy-related investments and consumption induced by uncertainty.

Keywords

• Energy Consumption
• Moderating Effect
• Financial Sector Development
• Economic policy uncertainty

Türkiye’de Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği Ve Enerji Tüketimi İlişkisi: Finans Sektörü Gelişiminin Aracı Rolü

Abstract

Bu çalışmada 1997-2023 dönemi için Türkiye özelinde ekonomik politik belirsizliğin finans sektörü gelişimi aracılığıyla toplam enerji tüketimi üzerindeki kısa ve uzun dönem etkisi ele alınmıştır. Serilerin farklı seviyede durağanlaşması nedeniyle uzun dönem ilişkiler ARDL sınır testi yöntemiyle test edilmiştir. Çalışma kapsamında ekonomik politik belirsizlik (EPU) ve finans sektörü gelişiminin (FSG) birbirini etkilememesi için 3 farklı model oluşturulmuştur. Model 1’de EPU’nun enerji tüketimi üzerindeki etkisi ele alınmıştır. Model 1 sonuçlarına göre, uzun dönemde EPU enerji tüketimi negatif yönde etkilediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Model 2 FSG’nin enerji tüketimi üzerine etkisini incelemektedir. Model 2 sonuçlarına göre, FSG enerji tüketimi uzun dönemde pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Model 3’te ise finans sektörü gelişimin EPU-enerji tüketimi ilişkisinde aracı rolünü incelenmiştir. Aracı terimlerin kullanılması, bağımlı değişken üzerindeki ortak nedensel etkilerin daha kapsamlı biçimde analiz edilmesine olanak sağlamasıdır. Model 3 sonuçları, EPUxFSG etkileşim katsayısı enerji tüketimi üzerinde olumlu bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu sonuç, Türkiye için gelişmekte olan bir finansal sektör EPU’nun enerji tüketimi üzerindeki olumsuz etkisini azaltmaktadır. Bu bulgulara göre, enerji politikalarının sürdürülebilirliği açısından daha iyi sonuçlar elde edebilmek için finans sektörü ile enerji sektörü arasındaki iş birliğinin güçlendirilmesi önerilmektedir.

Keywords

• Enerji Tüketimi
• Aracı Etki
• Finans Sektörü Gelişimi
• Ekonomik Politik Belirsizlik (EPU)

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