Kişiden Kişiye Kredide İkame Etkisi: Endonezya Eyaletlerinden Kanıtlar

Abstract

Amaç – Peer-to-peer (P2P) kredi sistemleri, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde finansal dışlanmaya bir çözüm olarak görülmekle birlikte, bu bağlamda geleneksel bankaların yerini alma rolünü test eden sağlam kanıtlar halen yetersizdir. Bu çalışma, Endonezya'daki bankacılık altyapısının zayıf olduğu bölgelerde P2P kredi büyümesinin daha hızlı olup olmadığını inceleyerek, söz konusu "ikame hipotezi"nin ülke özelinde ilk ampirik testini sunmaktadır. Tasarım/veri/metodoloji – 31 Endonezya eyaletine ait 2020-2024 dönemini kapsayan panel veri seti (N=1.736) üzerinde Çift Yönlü Sabit Etkiler modeli uygulanmıştır. Model, kişi başına P2P kredi hacmi ile iki farklı bankacılık yoğunluk ölçütü (bankacılık kredisinin GSYB'ye oranı ve kişi başına banka şube sayısı) arasındaki eyalet-içi ilişkiyi, gözlemlenemeyen bölgesel ve zamana özgü faktörleri kontrol ederek tahmin etmektedir. Bulgular – Sonuçlar, ikame ilişkisine dair net kanıtlar sunmaktadır. Kişi başına P2P kredi hacmi, bankacılık yoğunluğunun düşük olduğu eyaletlerde anlamlı derecede yüksek çıkmış olup, hem banka kredisinin GSYB'ye oranı (β = -0.098, p < 0.01) hem de kişi başına banka şube sayısı (β = -7.865, p < 0.001) ile güçlü negatif ilişki göstermiştir. Ayrıca, P2P kredi piyasasının süregelen büyümesini teyit eden güçlü ve bağımsız bir pozitif zaman trendi (β = 0.000881, p < 0.001) tespit edilmiştir. Özgünlük/değer – Bu çalışma, Endonezya'da P2P kredi sistemlerinin bankalara bir tamamlayıcı değil, bir ikame olarak işlev gördüğünü ortaya koymaktadır. Bir gelişmekte olan piyasadan yeni nedensel kanıtlar sunmakta, FinTech'in rolünün yerel bağlam tarafından nasıl belirlendiğini göstermekte ve kapsayıcılık politikaları için net bir rehber sunmaktadır.

Keywords

• P2P Kredilendirme
• İkame Hipotezi
• Finansal Kapsama
• Endonezya
• Bankacılık Yoğunluğu
• ÇYSE Modeli.

The Substitution Effect of Peer-to-Peer Lending: Evidence from Indonesian Provinces

Abstract

Purpose – Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending is regarded as a solution to financial exclusion in developing countries, yet robust evidence testing its role as a substitute for traditional banks in these contexts remains scarce. This study provides the first empirical test of this "substitution hypothesis" in Indonesia, examining whether P2P lending grows faster in regions with weaker banking infrastructure. Design/data/methodology – We employ a Two-Way Fixed Effects model on a panel dataset of 31 Indonesian provinces from 2020-2024 (N=1,736). The model identifies the within-province relationship between P2P lending per capita and two banking density measures: bank credit to GRP and bank branches per capita, while controlling for unobserved regional and time-specific factors. Findings – The results provide clear evidence of substitution. P2P lending per capita is significantly higher in provinces with lower banking density, showing a strong negative relationship with both bank credit to GRP (β = -0.098, p < 0.01) and bank branches per capita (β = -7.865, p < 0.001). We also document a strong, independent positive time trend (β = 0.000881, p < 0.001), confirming the sustained growth of the P2P lending market. Originality/value – This study demonstrates that P2P Lending acts as a substitute for banks in Indonesia, not a complement. It provides new causal evidence from an emerging market, shows how local context defines FinTech's role, and offers clear guidance for inclusion policies.

Keywords

• P2P Lending
• Substitution Hypothesis
• Financial Inclusion
• Indonesia
• Banking Density
• TWFE Model.

Ethical Statement

This study did not require ethical approval from an institutional review board because it did not involve human or animal subjects. The research was conducted solely on publicly available data.

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