Batı Afrika’da tarımsal üretim sistemi verimliliğinin panel analizi: Kakao üretiminde verimlilik–sürdürülebilirlik ödünleşmesi

Öz

Bu çalışma, Batı Afrika’daki kakao üretim sistemlerinde verimlilik–sürdürülebilirlik ödünleşmesini inceleyerek tam güneşli, kısmi gölgeli, küçük ölçekli ve agroforestri temelli yapıların verim performansını ekolojik bütünlük ile nasıl dengelediğini araştırmaktadır. Kamerun, Fildişi Sahili, Gana ve Nijerya’yı kapsayan 1970–2020 dönemine ait dengeli panel veri seti kullanılarak sistem verimlilikleri, biyofiziksel değişkenler, piyasa sinyalleri ve sistem türü etkileşimlerini içeren sağlam standart hatalı birleştirilmiş regresyon modelleriyle tahmin edilmiştir. Bulgular, tam güneşli sistemlerin en yüksek verimi sağladığı, agroforestrinin ise özellikle Kamerun’da en belirgin üretim kaybına yol açtığı açık bir verimlilik basamağı göstermektedir. Gana’nın kısmi gölgeli sistemleri verimlilik ile ekolojik koruma arasında daha dengeli bir yapı sunarken, Nijerya’daki küçük işletmeler iyi performansa rağmen yapısal verimsizlik taşımaktadır. Fildişi Sahili’nin tam güneşli sistemleri yüksek verimi önemli çevresel maliyetlerle sürdürmektedir. Çalışma, ekolojik karmaşıklığın kısa vadede verimi azalttığını ancak uzun vadeli dayanıklılığı güçlendirdiğini ortaya koymakta; ekosistem ödemeleri, düzenli yoğunlaştırma, kooperatiflerin güçlendirilmesi ve geliştirilmiş gölge yönetimi gibi hedefe yönelik politikalar önermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Verimlilik–sürdürülebilirlik takası
• Kakao üretim sistemler
• Agroforestry (Tarım Ormancılığı)
• Panel veri analizi
• Üretim verimliliğ
• Ekolojik bütünlük

Cocoa productivity-sustainability trade-off: A panel analysis of agricultural production system efficiency in West Africa

Abstract

This study investigates the productivity–sustainability trade-off in West African cocoa systems by examining how full-sun, partial-shade, smallholding, and agroforestry configurations balance yield performance with ecological integrity. Using a balanced panel dataset (1970–2020) from Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria, system efficiencies were estimated through pooled regression models with robust standard errors, incorporating biophysical factors, market signals, and system-type interactions. Results show a clear productivity gradient in which full-sun systems achieve the highest yields, while agroforestry incurs the greatest output penalty, particularly in Cameroon. Ghana’s partial-shade systems strike a more favourable balance between productivity and ecological preservation, whereas Nigeria’s smallholdings perform well but remain structurally inefficient. Côte d’Ivoire’s full-sun systems maintain high output at substantial environmental cost. The study concludes that ecological complexity reduces short-run yields but supports long-term resilience. It recommends tailored interventions, including ecosystem payments, regulated intensification, cooperative strengthening, and improved shade management.

Keywords

• Productivity–sustainability trade-off;
• Cocoa production systems
• Agroforestry
• Panel data analysis
• Production efficiency
• Ecological integrity

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