Effects of climate change on food crops productivity in Nigeria: assessing impacts, adaptation strategies, and media communication

Öz

This study aimed to analyze the effects of climate change on food crop productivity in Nigeria from 1991 to 2022. It assessed how climate variables such as rainfall, temperature, sunshine duration, carbon dioxide emissions, and relative humidity influenced the aggregate productivity of selected food crops. The study also assessed the climate change impacts, adaptation strategies and media communication contributions to the food crops productivity. The research utilized secondary data analyzed through econometric models, including the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, and the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests. The findings revealed that rainfall, temperature, and sunshine duration positively affected crop productivity, although their impact varied with time lags. Conversely, lagged values of carbon dioxide emissions and relative humidity had negative effects on food crops productivity but media communication had contributed towards positive applications of sustainability agriculture. The study concluded that climate change significantly impacted food crop productivity in Nigeria during the study period. It recommends the adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties, improved irrigation infrastructure, enhanced agricultural extension services and engagement of media communication to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on food productivity in Nigeria.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Adaptation strategies
• Climate change
• Food crops
• Media communication
• Productivity
• Nigeria

References

1. Adejuwon, S. A. (2021). Impacts of temperature variations on crop yields in Nigeria: A case study of maize. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 16(5), 214-223.
2. Adeleke, O. A., Adeleke, H. M., Fajobi, D. T., Akintola, R. O., Olawuyi, E. O., Binuomote, S. O. & Odugbemi, A. A. (2023). An empirical analysis of climate change effects on selected cereals acreage in Nigeria: A ricardian approach. European Journal of theortical and applied sciences, 1(4), 1314-1321. https://doi.org/10.59324/ejtas.2023.1(4).122
3. Adetayo, J. A., Oyeleke, O., & Sanni, L. O. (2018). Assessing Nigeria's vulnerability to climate change: A case for adaptive strategies. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 12(3), 234-242.
4. Adewuyi, S. A., & Omotosho, J. A. (2021). Climate change and agricultural productivity in Nigeria: Evidence from a time-series analysis. Nigerian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 10(2), 121-137.
5. Adeyemo, T. (2024, June 17). Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism. https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-newsreport/2024/nigeria#:~:text=The%20Nigeria%20media%20landscape%20features%20a%20blend,locally%20owned%20digital%20news%20outlets%20or%20startups.&text=Private%20broadcasters%20like%20Channels%20Television%2C%20Arise%20TV%2C,of%20news%20events%2C%20both%20domestically%20and%20internationally.
6. Ahmed, M., Asim, M., Ahmad, S. & Aslam, M. (2023). Climate change, Agricultural productivity, and food security. In: Ahmed, M. (eds) Global Agricultural Production: Resilience to Climate Change. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-14973-3_2
7. Aja, O. , Asiabaka, C. , Ani, A. and Matthews-Njoku, E. (2024) Analysis of the Digital Skill Gap of Agricultural Extension Personnel in South-East, Nigeria. Agricultural Sciences, 15(1), 1057-1070. doi: 10.4236/as.2024.159057.
8. Akinbobola, A. O., Akinwumi, A.M., Adewumi, J.R., & Obiora-Okeke, O.A. (2019). Impact of climate change on the stream-flow of ala river, Akure, Nigeria. Sust. Water Res. Manager, 7(1), 1–11.

9. Alawade, O. S. & Obun-Andy, M. K. (2024). The role of media in shaping public perception of climate change. İnternational journal of research and innovation in social sciences, 3(1),2454-6186. https://dx.doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2024.801179
10. Amaefule, C., Shoaga, A., Ebelebe, L.O., & Adeola, A.S. (2023). Carbon emissions, climate change, and Nigeria’s agricultural productivity. European Journal of Sustainable Development Research, 7(1), em0206–em0206. https://doi.org/10.29333/ejosdr/12572
11. Ayanlade, A., Radeny, M., Morton, J. F., & Muchaba, T. (2020). Rainfall variability and drought characteristics in two agro-climatic zones of Nigeria. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 141(3-4), 1091-1101.
12. Ayuba, Y., Eneji, M. A. & Goshit, G. G. (2021). Effect of foreign direct investment on manufacturing sector output in Nigeria 1981–2020. Journal of Economics and Financial issues, 7(2), 23-42.
13. Cammarano, D. (2022). Climate variability and change impacts on crop productivity. Italian Journal of Agronomy, 17(4). https://doi.org/10.4081/ija.2022.2177
14. Chowdhury, A. R., & Sdogati, F. (1993). Purchasing power parity in the major EMS countries: The role of price and exchange rate adjustment. Journal of Macroeconomics, 15(1), 25–45.
15. Daniel, O., Chukwujioke, & Rita, O., Onyinye. (2022). Investigating the effect of macroeconomic variables on Agricultural output in Nigeria. Asian Journal of Research in Agriculture and Forestry, 41–48. https://doi.org/10.9734/ajraf/2022/v8i230153
16. Dongbei, B., Lei, Y., Zheng, Y. Y. & Gang, W. (2022). Impact of climate change on agricultural productivity: a combination of spatial Durbin model and entropy approaches. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Manaement Emerald Publishing Limited, 1756-8692.
17. Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-276. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1913236
18. Eze, J. N., Salihu, B. Z., Gbanguba, U. A., Alfa, M., Ayanniyi, N. N., Ekaette, J. E., & Olaniyan, B. O. (2021). Rainfall variability and its effect on crop production in Niger State, Nigeria. Badeggi Journal of Agricultural Research And Environment, 3(2), 46–55. https://doi.org/10.35849/bjare202102015
19. FAO. (2021). The state of food and agriculture 2021: Transforming food systems for food security, improved nutrition, and affordable healthy diets for all. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
20. Ganiyu, M. O., Adebayo, A. A. & Olatunji, O. J. (2023). Scenario of Agricultural land-use intensification practice and production efficiency among food crop farmers in Oyo State, Nigeria: A two-stage least square regression. Trends in Agricultural Sciences, 2(4), 394-410. https://doi.org/10.17311/tas.2023.394.410
21. Habib-ur-Rahman, M., Ahmad, A., Raza, A., Hasnain, M. U., Alharby, H. F., Alzahrani, Y. M., Bamagoos, A. A., Hakeem, K. R., Ahmad, S., Nasim, W., Ali, S., Mansour, F. and EL-Sabagh, A. (2022). Impact of climate change on agricultural production; Issues, challenges, and opportunities in Asia. Frontiers plant science, 13. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2022.925548
22. Haug, A. A. (2002). Temporal Aggregation and the Power of Cointegration Tests: a Monte Carlo Study. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, 64(4), 399-412.
23. Imandojemu, K., Iwayemi, A., & Oyedele, O. (2024). Quantifying the effect of change in rainfall dynamics on Agricultural output in Nigeria. Journal of Applied Science and Environmental Management, 28(3), 943–951. https://doi.org/10.4314/jasem.v28i3.36
24. Iorember, P. T., Yusma, N., Abachi, P. T., Usman, O., & Alola, A. A. (2024). Effect of exchange rate uncertainty, energy prices and sectoral spending on agriculture value added, household consumption, and domestic investment. Heliyon, e30138–e30138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e30138
25. IPCC. (2021). Climate change 2021: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
26. Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52 (1), 169-210. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x
27. Kaushika, G. S., Arora, H. & Hari, P. K. S. (2019). Analysis of climate change effects on crop water availability for paddy, wheat and berseem. Agricultural water management, 225 (1). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2019.105734
28. National Planning Commission. (2023). “Report on its Activities”. NPC Abuja, Nigeria.
29. NBS. (2020). Annual abstract of statistics 2020. National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria.
30. NBS. (2022). National Agricultural Sample Survey 2023 Agricultural Household Survey.
31. Nwafor, M. I., & Eboh, E. C. (2019). Socio-economic challenges to agricultural productivity in Nigeria under a changing climate. Nigerian Journal of Economic and Social Studies, 61(3), 345-363.
32. Obe, M. E., Adewale , I. O., Akinrinola, O. O., Olanrewaju , O. O., Oluyede , A. A., & Yiseyon , S. H. (2024). Impacts of capital formation and investment sources on total factor productivity: The example of Nigeria’s Agriculture. Diyala Agricultural Sciences Journal, 16(1), 106–117. https://doi.org/10.52951/dasj.24160109
33. Odekunle, T. O., Balogun, E. E., & Ogunkoya, A. (2020). Impact of climate variability on crop production in Nigeria: A review. International Journal of Climate Change Studies, 12(2), 142-155.
34. Ogbuabor, J. E. & Egwuchukwu, E.I (2017). The Impact of Climate Change on the Nigerian Economy. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2017, 7(2), 217-223
35. Ogundele, J.A and Jegede, A.O.(2013). Environmental influence of flooding on urban growth and development of open Spaces. pp 12-16.
36. Ogunleye, A., Kehinde, A., Mishra, A., & Ogundeji, A. (2021). Impacts of farmers' participation in social capital networks on climate change adaptation strategies adoption in Nigeria. Heliyon,/ 7(2021), e08624. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e08624
37. Oladipo, A. J., Aderinto, A. A., & Folarin, O. (2020). The effects of climate change on agricultural yields in Nigeria: Empirical evidence and policy options. Journal of Climate Policy and Development, 6(2), 95-108.
38. Olajide, B. O., Olasunkanmi, F., & Adebayo, S. (2021). Adaptation strategies for climate change impacts on agriculture in Nigeria. Nigerian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Studies, 11(4), 154-167.
39. Olaniyi, J. O., Ayodeji, S. O., & Dada, M. A. (2023). Climate-Smart Agriculture: Practices and policies in Nigeria. Global Environmental Change, 32(2), 78-92.
40. Onyekuru, N. A., Chukwu, E., & Anikwe, M. A. (2020). The role of climate-smart agriculture in enhancing food security in Nigeria. Agricultural Science and Technology Journal, 24(2), 48-56.
41. Onuegbu, O. C., Wogu, J.O., Okaiyeto, S.A. & Wilson, A.O. (2024). Media Practitioners’ knowledge and coverage of climate change and rural farmers adoption in Nigeria. International Journal of Agriculture and Biosciences, 13(3), 390-396. https://doi.org/10.47278/journal.ijab/2024.135
42. Osuji, Orji, N., Anyanwu, Umeh, H., Eze, & A, O. E. (2024). Effect of Climate Change on Sustainability of Cassava Production in Ebonyi State, Nigeria. Sumerianz Journal of Agriculture and Veterinary, 72, 5–14. https://doi.org/10.47752/sjav.72.5.14
43. Patrick, O. (2023). Public Expenditure and the Performance of the Agricultural Sector of the Nigerian Economy. International Journal Of Multidisciplinary Research And Analysis, 06(10). https://doi.org/10.47191/ijmra/v6-i10-29
44. Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1999). An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. In S. Strom (Ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The ragnar frisch centennial symposium, 371-413. Cambridge University Press.
45. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (2001) Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(1), 289-326.
46. Raji, E., Ignatius, T., & Eyieyien, G. (2024). Improving agricultural practices and productivity through extension services and innovative training programs. International Journal of Applied Research in Social Sciences, 6(7), 1297–1309. https://doi.org/10.51594/ijarss.v6i7.1267
47. Rauff, K. O., & Ismail, A. A. (2018). Statistical analysis of effect of climate change on crop potentials productivity on a regional scale in Nigeria. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 13(42), 2275–2284. https://doi.org/10.5897/ajar2018.13455
48. Sowunmi, F.A & Adeyemi, I. T. (2025). Impact of livelihood diversification on the welfare of maize farming households in Nigeria In M. N. Amutabi (ed) Appraisal of African development initiatives. Nairobi: CEDRED, 69-99.
49. Swain, A. (2012). Global climate change and challenges for international river agreements. İnternational journal of sustainable society, 4(1-2), 72-87.
50. Umoru, D., & Imimole, F. O. (2022). The effect of currency devaluation on non-oil exports in Africa. The Central European Review of Economics and Management, 6(4), 29–59. https://doi.org/10.29015/cerem.954
51. Uredo, O., Omejeh, T. E. & Omeje, E. Q. (2024). The Impact of Mass Media on Climate Change. African Journal of Environment and Sustainable Development, 2(3), 16-25. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.13364988.
52. Uteh, A., Yisa, E. S., Ojo, M. A., & Ibrahim, F. D. (2022). Drivers of agricultural foreign direct investment and its effect on food production in Nigeria. Journal of Agripreneurship and Sustainable Development, 5(3), 102–115. https://doi.org/10.59331/jasd.v5i3.339