Monitoring Agricultural Vegetation Change in Antalya Using Multi-Temporal NDVI and GIS Analysis

This study quantifies the spatiotemporal dynamics of agricultural vegetation in Antalya Province, a critical region hosting approximately 41% to 43% of Türkiye's total greenhouse area and providing 20% of the nation's fresh produce exports. Utilizing multi-temporal Landsat imagery and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) spatial analysis between 2013 and 2025, the research identifies a statistically significant degradation and spatial fragmentation of agricultural landscapes. Quantitative assessments reveal that the regional mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) declined from 0.51 to 0.43, marking a 15.7% overall reduction. This decline is supported by a robust linear regression model demonstrating a steady vegetation loss of -0.0067 NDVI units annually (R² = 0.81, p < 0.001). Concurrently, increasing spatial heterogeneity is evidenced by a rise in the standard deviation (0.14 to 0.18) and the coefficient of variation (27.4% to 41.8%). Frequency distribution shifts further highlight this ecological stress; the proportion of "high vegetation" (NDVI 0.40–0.60) decreased from 42.3% to 31.4%, and "very high vegetation" (>0.60) dropped precipitously from 18.5% to 9.7%. Conversely, "low vegetation" classes (<0.20) nearly doubled, expanding from 12.8% to 24.6%. Spatial difference analysis demonstrates that 38.6% of the total agricultural area experienced negative NDVI anomalies exceeding -0.10, with 14.2% enduring severe degradation (<-0.20). In contrast, only 11.8% of the landscape exhibited positive NDVI changes, primarily isolated within intensively managed greenhouse zones. Spatial synthesis strongly correlates the most severe vegetation reductions with rapid peri-urban development and expanding coastal infrastructure. Ultimately, these data-driven findings underscore the immediate threat of uncontrolled urban sprawl on Mediterranean agricultural productivity, highlighting the urgent need for sustainable land-use planning and continuous environmental monitoring.