Investigation of the Lagged Effects of Livestock Supports on the Animal Production Value in Turkey

Abstract

A significant part of the population in Turkey is under the malnutrition risk due to the food insecurity in terms of animal products. It has been implemented a number of policies aimed to increase animal production despite of unsatisfactory results. Thus, the main research question is whether livestock policies really affect animal production value, and if so, to what extent and how long its effect continues. In the study, it was used Koyck and Almon distributed lag models based on annual time-series data from 1986 to 2019. The results confirmed a significant and positive association between livestock supports and animal production value. Moreover, animal production value remained to increase until the sixth years thanks to the supports. Further, necessary time for being felt on animal production value of one unit change in subsidies was determined to be 2.98 years by Koyk model. For this reason, long term and stable structural livestock policies should be implemented to increase the development and competitiveness of the sector.

Keywords

• Distributed lag models
• Koyck model
• Almon model
• agriculture

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