Approaches on The Future of Turkey Tourism in 2023

Abstract

In 2023 Turkey will celebrate the 100th anniversary of the foundation of the Republic. For this reason since 2005 various institutions & organizations have issued different estimates on the Turkey’s 2023 tourism targets. For some estimates, the researches were based upon unspecified method and for the others, it has been observed that an arithmetic average percentage was used. According to the forecasting model with econometric analysis, single variadic regression  (point & interval estimations) made by us in 2006, through the years, the realized and the estimated global international tourists travelling from abroad till 2023 in the world and the estimation of tourist arrivals to our country from abroad were formed in a single projection. As it is understood from the results of our research, between the years 2006-2015 the number of international tourists arrived in Turkey were almost the same as the projected figures, even at the level of usual expectations. However, in 2016, as a result of unfavorable events that occurred in Turkey, of which 30% decline was experienced comparing with the previous year and this also affected the result of our projection study negatively. Within the scope of this study, with regard to Turkey's 2023 target, besides the normal course of the predicted econometric forecasts analysis made by us for the years, along with derived "force majeure" actual and estimated figures comparison, pessimistic, usual and optimistic expectations were obtained. On the subject literature search was made, secondary data sources were utilized and suggestions for the realization of the objectives were examined in the conclusion & reccomendation section.

Keywords

• Turkey's 2023 tourism target,Tourism forecasts,Econometric analysis,Point & interval estimations

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