Scenario Analysis for Seeking Cost-Effective Management Using Cellular Automaton-based Model of Invasive Species

Abstract

In this study we evaluate and compare different invasive species management scenarios in order to investigate a cost-effective management strategy over space and time.  Cost effectiveness matters because budget constraints limit the area that can be treated to mitigate the risk of invasion in any given year.  The spatial nature of invasive species spread makes it important to effectively allocate budget resources to control spread over space and time.  We develop and use a simulation model to examine and compare the effect of various management strategies on the pattern and extent of invasive species spread, as well as management costs.  Our model is based on a biological model that captures the dynamic and spatial aspect of invasion, integrated with a spatially explicit dynamic decision tool.  Our model explicitly integrates the tradeoff between management intensity and management cost, and quantifies this tradeoff, which is important information for allocating management efforts efficiently and effectively over space and time.

Keywords

• Invasive species, Spatial and dynamic model, Simulation model, Management costs

SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR SEEKING COST-EFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT USING A CELLULAR AUTOMATON-BASED MODEL OF INVASIVE SPECIES

Öz

Bu çalışmada değişen zaman ve mekan koşullarında düşük maliyetli bir yönetim stratejisi araştırmak amacıyla farklı istilacı türlerin yönetim senaryoları karşılaştırılıp değerlendirilmiştir. Düşük maliyet önemlidir çünkü, yıllık bütçenin kısıtlı olması, istilacı türlerin yayılma riskinin hafifletileceği alanı sınırlar. İstilacı türlerin mekansal dağılımcı doğası, bu türlerin zamansal ve mekansal dağılım hakimiyetlerinin kontrolünü sağlayabilmek için, bütçenin etkin bir şekilde paylaşımını / kullanılmasını önemli kılmaktadır. Bu çalışma kapsamında geliştirilen benzetim modelini kullanılarak farklı yönetim stratejilerinin istilacı türlerin yayılma düzeni ve büyüklüğü üzerindeki etkisi ve bunun maliyeti irdelenip karşılaştırılmıştır. Geliştirilen model, istilanın gidişatını enerjisi ve boyutu açısından algılayabilen bir biyolojik model esasına dayanmakta ve istilanın mekansal – zamansal değişmine uygun etkin karar mekanizmasına sahiptir. Model; zaman ve mekan içindeki yönetim etkinliklerinin verimli ve etkili tahsisi için önemli bilgi olan yönetim yoğunluğu ve yönetim maliyeti arasındaki değişimi net bir şekilde entegre eder ve bu değişimi sayısallaştırır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İstilacı türler, Konumsal ve dinamik model, Simülasyon modeli, Yönetim maliyetleri

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