Forest Fire Risk Mapping Using GIS Based Analytical Hierarchy Process Approach

Turkiye is located in a region sensitive to forest fires due to its climate, vegetation characteristics, and topography. Every year, forest fires, for various reasons, cause burning of thousands of hectares of forest area. Fires damage the ecosystem and have economic consequences. The Mediterranean, Aegean and Marmara coasts, where the Mediterranean climate and fire-sensitive tree species dominate, are at primary risk against forest fires. For an effective fight against forest fires, it is crucial to identify zones with fire risk based on various parameters such as forest structures (tree species, crown closure, stand development class), topographic features (slope, aspect), climate, and proximity to certain points (such as roads, settlements, agricultural areas). Fire risk data will shed light on the measures that can be taken against fire. In this study, GIS (Geographic Information Systems) based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method, one of the well know Multi-Criteria Decision Making Analysis (MCDA) methods, was used to develop the fire risk map of Mersin Forestry Regional Directorate (FRD) within the Mediterranean region of Turkiye. Then, the accuracy of the fire risk map was evaluated by taking into account the previous fires in the regional directorate. As a result, the findings showed that 13.87% of the study area was classified as very high, 25.87% as high, 24.68% as medium, 22.44% a low, and 13.14% as very low risk areas. The results also indicated that tree species are the most influential risk factor in forest fires, and followed by stand development class factor. The accuracy of the fire risk map was evaluated by using the location information of a total of 562 forest fires in Mersin FRD between 2003-2022. In order to determine the accuracy of the fire risk map, the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve method was used in the ArcGIS environment. As a result, the Area Under Curve (AUC) value was approximately 74%, which showed that the fire risk map developed for Mersin FRD was moderately reliable. With this study, it has been demonstrated that it is possible to produce reliable fire risk maps in a short time using the GIS-based AHP method.