AN INNOVATIVE APPROACH TO MANAGE UNCERTAINTIES AND STOCK DIVERSITY IN THE EPBD COST-OPTIMAL METHODOLOGY

Year 2018, Volume: 8 Issue: 1, 35 - 49, 30.06.2018

Damien Gatt Charles Yousıf Maurizio Cellura Liberato Camıllerı

https://doi.org/10.36222/ejt.467910

Cited By: 1

Abstract

The EU Energy Performance of Buildings
Directive (EPBD) 2010/31/EU is a step in the right direction to promote near
zero energy buildings (NZEB) in a step-wise manner, starting with minimum
energy performance and cost optimal thresholds for “reference buildings” (RBs)
for each category. Nevertheless, a standard method for defining RBs does not
exist, which led to a great divergence between MS in the level of detail used
to define RBs for the EPBD cost-optimal analysis. Such lack of harmonisation
between MS is further evident given the resulting large discrepancies in energy
performance indicators even between countries having similar climate.
Furthermore, discrepancies of 30% or higher between measured energy performance
and that derived from the EPBD software induces uncertainty in the actual
operational savings of measures leading to cost-optimality or NZEB in the
simulated environment. This research proposes a robust and innovative framework
to better handle uncertainties in the EPBD cost-optimal method both in the
building software input parameters and in the global Life Cycle Costings (LCC),
making the EPBD more useful for policy makers and ensuring a more harmonised
approach among MS. The concept behind the proposed framework is the combination
of a stochastic EPBD cost-optimal approach with Bayesian bottom-up calibrated
stock-modelling. A new concept of “reference zoning” versus the “reference
buildings” approach is also introduced in this research, which aims at
providing a simpler and more flexible aggregation of energy performance for the
more complex commercial building stock.

Keywords

Stock modelling, EPBD cost-optimal method, Bayesian calibration, reference zones

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