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Elektrik Tüketimindeki Dalgalanmalar Geçici mi Yoksa Kalıcı mı? Türkiye İçin Amprik Bir Analiz

Year 2019, Issue: 31, 53 - 62, 31.12.2019

Abstract

Elektrik, insan yaşamının her alanında vazgeçilmez bir girdidir. Enerji tüketiminin zaman serisi özelliklerinin araştırılması araştırmacılar ve politika yapıcılar için oldukça önemli bir yere sahiptir. Eğer enerji tüketimi serisi durağanlık özelliği gösteriyor ise enerji tüketimine yönelik şoklar geçici olacaktır. Ancak enerji tüketimi serisi birim kök içeriyorsa, enerji tüketimine gelen şokların kalıcı etkileri olacaktır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’ye ait 1950-2017 yıllarını kapsayan elektrik tüketimi ve kişi başı elektrik tüketimi verileri kullanılmıştır. Ele alınan serilerin durağanlık özellikleri geleneksel birim kök / durağanlık testleri ve Becker, Enders ve Lee (2006) tarafından önerilen Fourier KPSS (FKPSS) durağanlık testi ile incelenmiştir. Becker Enders ve Lee (2006), yapısal kırılmaların doğasının tam olarak bilinemeyeceğini, birim kök testleri için kırılmaların yeri ve sayısını gösterecek özel bir rehberin bulunmadığını ifade etmektedir. Bu durumdan hareketle Fourier birim kök / durağanlık testleri geliştirilmiştir. Fourier yaklaşımını temel alan birim kök testleri, kırılma tarihlerinin, kırılma sayısının veya kırılma yapılarının bilinmediği durumlarda kullanılabilmektedir. Çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlar Türkiye için elektrik tüketimi serisinin durağan olmadığını ve elektrik tüketimindeki dalgalanmaların kalıcı olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuç elektrik enerjisi piyasalarındaki büyük bir yapısal değişimden sonra enerji tüketiminin orijinal dengesine dönemeyeceğini göstermektedir. 

Supporting Institution

Yazarlar bu çalışma için finansal destek almamışlardır.

References

  • Becker, R., Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2006). A stationarity test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27 (3): 381–409. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9892.2006.00478.x.
  • Bolat, S., Belke, M., & Kovaci, S. (2013). The stationarity of electricity consumption in selected European countries. European Scientific Journal, 9(19).
  • Cai, Y., & Magazzino, C. (2019). Are shocks to natural gas consumption transitory or permanent? A more powerful panel unit root test on the G7 countries. In Natural Resources Forum, 43(2), pp. 111-120. Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
  • Canpolat, E., & Yolaç, S. (2016). Are shocks to energy consumption is transitory in Turkey? An evidence from unit root test with structural breaks. Journal of Applied Research in Finance And Economics, 2(4), 1-8.
  • Dogan, E. (2016). Are shocks to electricity consumption transitory or permanent? Sub-National evidence from Turkey. Utilities Policy, 41, 77-84.
  • Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012). A unit root test using a Fourier series to approximate smooth breaks. Oxford bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 74(4), 574-599.
  • Hasanov, M., & Telatar, E. (2011). A re-examination of stationarity of energy consumption: Evidence from new unit root tests. Energy Policy, 39(12), 7726-7738.
  • Hsu, Y. C., Lee, C. C., & Lee, C. C. (2008). Revisited: Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? New evidence from a panel SURADF approach. Energy Economics, 30(5), 2314- 2330.
  • Jones, P. M., & Enders, W. (2014). On the use of the flexible Fourier form in unit root tests, endogenous breaks, and parameter instability. In Recent Advances in Estimating Nonlinear Models (pp. 5983). Springer, New York, NY.
  • Kapetanios, G., Shin, Y., & Snell, A. (2003). Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework. Journal of Econometrics, 112(2), 359-379.
  • Khraief, N., Omoju, O. E., & Shahbaz, M. (2016). Are fluctuations in electricity consumption per capita in Sub-Saharan Africa countries transitory or permanent?, Energy Strategy Reviews, 13, 86-96.
  • Konat, G., Kızılkaya, O. ve Gökçe M. (2018). Furuoka birim kök testi: Türkiye’nin enerji tüketimi durağanlığı. Current Debates In Finance & Econometrics, IJOPEC Publication, s. 171-177.
  • Kula, F., Aslan, A., & Ozturk, I. (2012). Is per capita electricity consumption stationary? Time series evidence from OECD countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16: 501-03.
  • Mishra, V., Sharma, S., & Smyth, R. (2009). Are fluctuations in energy consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries. Energy Policy, 37(6), pp. 23182326.
  • Narayan, P. K., & Smyth, R. (2007). Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? Evidence from 182 countries. Energy Policy, 35(1), 333-341.
  • Nelson, C. R., & Plosser, C. R. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series: some evidence and implications. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10(2), 139-162.
  • Öztürk, I., & Aslan, A. (2015). Are fluctuations in electricity consumption permanent or transitory? Evidence from a nonlinear unit root test in high-income OECD Countries. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 10(3), 257-262.
  • Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1361-1401.
  • Shahbaz, M., Khraief, N., Mahalik, M. K., & Zaman, K. U. (2014). Are fluctuations in natural gas consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from time series and panel unit root tests. Energy, 78, 183-195.
  • Shahbaz, M., Tiwari, A. K., Ozturk, I., & Farooq, A. (2013). Are fluctuations in electricity consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from developed and developing economies. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 28, 551-554.
  • Tiwari, A. K., & Albulescu, C. T. (2016). Renewable-to-total electricity consumption ratio: Estimating the permanent or transitory fluctuations based on flexible Fourier stationarity and unit root tests. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 57, 1409-1427.
  • Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (2002). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(1), 25-44.

Are Fluctuations in Electricity Consumption Permanent or Transitory? An Empirical Analysis for Turkey

Year 2019, Issue: 31, 53 - 62, 31.12.2019

Abstract

Electricity is an indispensable input in every part of human life. Investigating the time-series properties of energy consumption is very important for researchers and policy-makers. If energy consumption is stationary, shocks to energy consumption will have temporary effects. However, if energy consumption contains a unit root, shocks to energy consumption will have permanent effects. In this study, per capita electricity consumption and electricity consumption data for Turkey, covering the years 1950-2017 is used. Stationarity of the series is examined using conventional unit root/stationarity tests and Fourier KPSS (FKPSS) stationarity test proposed by Becker, Enders and Lee (2006). Becker, Enders, and Lee (2006) stated that the actual nature of the breaks is completely unknown. Therefore, Fourier unit root tests (see Becker, Enders and Lee (2006)) were developed. The Fourier unit root tests can be used to approximate the unknown form of the structural breaks.  The results show that electricity consumption series do not exhibit stationarity and fluctuations in electricity consumption are permanent for Turkey. This result shows that after a major structural change in the electricity markets, energy consumption cannot return to its original balance. 

References

  • Becker, R., Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2006). A stationarity test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27 (3): 381–409. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9892.2006.00478.x.
  • Bolat, S., Belke, M., & Kovaci, S. (2013). The stationarity of electricity consumption in selected European countries. European Scientific Journal, 9(19).
  • Cai, Y., & Magazzino, C. (2019). Are shocks to natural gas consumption transitory or permanent? A more powerful panel unit root test on the G7 countries. In Natural Resources Forum, 43(2), pp. 111-120. Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
  • Canpolat, E., & Yolaç, S. (2016). Are shocks to energy consumption is transitory in Turkey? An evidence from unit root test with structural breaks. Journal of Applied Research in Finance And Economics, 2(4), 1-8.
  • Dogan, E. (2016). Are shocks to electricity consumption transitory or permanent? Sub-National evidence from Turkey. Utilities Policy, 41, 77-84.
  • Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012). A unit root test using a Fourier series to approximate smooth breaks. Oxford bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 74(4), 574-599.
  • Hasanov, M., & Telatar, E. (2011). A re-examination of stationarity of energy consumption: Evidence from new unit root tests. Energy Policy, 39(12), 7726-7738.
  • Hsu, Y. C., Lee, C. C., & Lee, C. C. (2008). Revisited: Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? New evidence from a panel SURADF approach. Energy Economics, 30(5), 2314- 2330.
  • Jones, P. M., & Enders, W. (2014). On the use of the flexible Fourier form in unit root tests, endogenous breaks, and parameter instability. In Recent Advances in Estimating Nonlinear Models (pp. 5983). Springer, New York, NY.
  • Kapetanios, G., Shin, Y., & Snell, A. (2003). Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework. Journal of Econometrics, 112(2), 359-379.
  • Khraief, N., Omoju, O. E., & Shahbaz, M. (2016). Are fluctuations in electricity consumption per capita in Sub-Saharan Africa countries transitory or permanent?, Energy Strategy Reviews, 13, 86-96.
  • Konat, G., Kızılkaya, O. ve Gökçe M. (2018). Furuoka birim kök testi: Türkiye’nin enerji tüketimi durağanlığı. Current Debates In Finance & Econometrics, IJOPEC Publication, s. 171-177.
  • Kula, F., Aslan, A., & Ozturk, I. (2012). Is per capita electricity consumption stationary? Time series evidence from OECD countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16: 501-03.
  • Mishra, V., Sharma, S., & Smyth, R. (2009). Are fluctuations in energy consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries. Energy Policy, 37(6), pp. 23182326.
  • Narayan, P. K., & Smyth, R. (2007). Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? Evidence from 182 countries. Energy Policy, 35(1), 333-341.
  • Nelson, C. R., & Plosser, C. R. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series: some evidence and implications. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10(2), 139-162.
  • Öztürk, I., & Aslan, A. (2015). Are fluctuations in electricity consumption permanent or transitory? Evidence from a nonlinear unit root test in high-income OECD Countries. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 10(3), 257-262.
  • Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1361-1401.
  • Shahbaz, M., Khraief, N., Mahalik, M. K., & Zaman, K. U. (2014). Are fluctuations in natural gas consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from time series and panel unit root tests. Energy, 78, 183-195.
  • Shahbaz, M., Tiwari, A. K., Ozturk, I., & Farooq, A. (2013). Are fluctuations in electricity consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from developed and developing economies. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 28, 551-554.
  • Tiwari, A. K., & Albulescu, C. T. (2016). Renewable-to-total electricity consumption ratio: Estimating the permanent or transitory fluctuations based on flexible Fourier stationarity and unit root tests. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 57, 1409-1427.
  • Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (2002). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(1), 25-44.
There are 22 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Oktay Kızılkaya 0000-0002-3412-5616

Gökhan Konat 0000-0002-0964-7893

Publication Date December 31, 2019
Submission Date October 1, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019 Issue: 31

Cite

APA Kızılkaya, O., & Konat, G. (2019). Elektrik Tüketimindeki Dalgalanmalar Geçici mi Yoksa Kalıcı mı? Türkiye İçin Amprik Bir Analiz. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics(31), 53-62.