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Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomilerinde Ticari Açıklık, Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Bir Panel Nedensellik Analizi

Year 2019, Issue: 31, 1 - 16, 31.12.2019

Abstract

Öz 1980’lerin başından günümüze pek çok gelişmekte olan ülke, kapalı ekonomi modelini terk ederek, dışa açık büyüme modelini benimsemiştir. Dışa dönük büyüme modelinin amacı “ulusal ekonominin dünya ekonomisi ile bütünleşme derecesini mutlak olarak arttırmak” olmuştur. Şöyle de söylenebilir: Ekonominin büyüme hızının yüksek ve kalıcı olması için yapılması gereken uluslararası mal ve hizmet ticareti ile sermaye akımlarını serbest bırakmaktır. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerin tarihsel deneyimleri yeni büyüme modelinin ekonomiyi daha kırılgan ve uluslararası konjonktüre daha bağımlı hale getirdiğini göstermiştir. Bu çalışma ticari açıklık, finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkileri 15 yükselen piyasa ekonomisine için 2002-2016 dönemi verilerini kullanılarak incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada, seriler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin anlaşılması için Dumitrescu Hurlin (2012) panel nedensellik testi ve ülke özelinde sonuçlar elde etmeye olanak sağlayan Kónya (2006) panel nedensellik testleri tercih edilmiştir. Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) panel nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre, seçili ülkeler için ele alınan dönemde ticari açıklık, finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasında nedensellik ilişkisi olmadığını göstermektedir. Kónya (2006) nedensellik testine ait ülke özelindeki nedensellik sonuçları ise Kolombiya, Malezya, Filipinler, Rusya ve Türkiye’de finansal gelişmeden ekonomik büyümeye doğru nedenselliğin olduğunu göstermektedir. Elde edilen diğer bulgular değişkenler arasında nedenselliğin olmadığı yönündedir. Bu sonuçlara göre, ekonomik büyümenin, ticari açıklığın ve finansal gelişimin birbirinden bağımsız olarak geliştiğini söylenebilir.

Supporting Institution

Yazarlar bu çalışma için finansal destek almamışlardır.

References

  • Awojobi, O. (2013), Does trade openness and financial liberalization foster growth: an empirical study of greek economy, International Journal of Social Economics, 40 (6), 537-555. https://doi. org/10.1108/03068291311321848
  • Baltagi, Badi H. & Feng, Qu & Kao, Chihwa, 2012. “A Lagrange Multiplier test for cross-sectional dependence in a fixed effects panel data model,” Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 164-177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.04.004
  • Breusch, T. S. & Pagan, A. R. (1980). “The lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics”, The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1):239-253.
  • Chimobi, O. P. (2010), The Causal Relationship among Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Nigeria, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2 (2), 137-147.
  • Gries, T., M. Kraft and D. Meierrieks (2009), Linkages Between Financial Deepening, Trade Openness, and Economic Development: Causality Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa, World Development, 37, (12):1849–1860. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2009.05.008
  • Dünya Bankası (WDI) (2019). World Development Indicators. https://databank.worldbank. org/ source /world-development-indicators (Erişim Tarihi: 09.03.2019)
  • Dumitrescu, E. I. & Hurlin, C. (2012), Testing for Granger Non-Causality in Heterogeneous Panels, Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460.
  • Ehigiamusoe, K. U., and Lean, H. H., (2018), Tripartite Analysis of Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa, Contemporary Economics, 12(2): 189-206
  • Uluslararası Para Fonu (IMF) (2019). Financial Development Index Database, https://data. imf. org/?sk=F8032E80-B36C-43B1-AC26-493C5B1CD33B (Erişim Tarihi: 09.03.2019)
  • Kar, M., Ş. Nazlıoğlu, H. Ağır (2014), Trade Openness, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Turkey: Linear and Nonlinear Causality Analysis, BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar, 8 (1), 63-86.
  • Katırcıoğlu, S. T., N. Kahyalar, H. Benar (2007), Financial Development, Trade and Growth Triangle: The Case of India, International Journal of Social Economics, 34 (9), 586-598
  • Kónya, L. (2006). Exports and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries. Economic Modelling, 23(6):978–992. DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2006.04.008
  • Levine, R. (2005). Finance and growth: theory and evidence. In P. Aghion & S. N. Durlauf (Eds.), Handbook of economic growth (pp.865-934.ss.), Volume I, Part A Amsterdam, Holland.: Elsevier.
  • Menyah, Y., Ş. Nazlioglu, K. Wolde-Rufael (2014), Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in African Countries: New Insights from A Panel Causality Approach, Economic Modelling, 37, 386-394. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.11.044
  • MSCI (2019). MSCI Emerging Markets Index, https://www.msci.com/emerging-markets (Erişim Tarihi: 12.03.2019)
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004), General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, University of Cambridge, Working Paper, CWPE 0435
  • Pesaran, M.H. ve Yamagata, T. (2008), “Testing Slope Homogenity in Large Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
  • Rani, R., N. Kumar (2018), Panel Data Analysis of Financial Development, Trade Openness, and Economic Growth: Evidence from BRICS Countries, Emerging Economy Studies, 4(1) 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1177/2394901518767023
  • Sahay, R., Cihak, M., N’Diaye, P., Barajas, A., Ayala Pena, D., Bi, R., ….. Yousefi, R. (2015). Rethinking financial deepening: stability and growth in emerging markets. staff discussion notes, 15(8), 1. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498312615.006
  • Sönmez, F.E. and Sağlam, Y. (2018), Finansal Gelişme ve Ticari Açıklık ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki ilişki: Avrupa Dönüşüm ekonomileri Örneği, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 18 (4), 59-72
  • Smith, L. V., Leybourne, S., Kim, Tae-Hwan, ve Newbold, P. (2004), “More Powerful Panel Data Unit Root Tests with an Application to Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19, 147-170
  • Yücel, F. (2009), Causal relationships between financial development, trade openness and economic growth: the case of Turkey”, Journal of Social Sciences, 5 (1), 33-42
  • Polat, A., Shahbaz, M., Rehman, I. U., & Satti, S. L. (2014). Revisiting Linkages Between Financial Development, Trade Openness And Economic Growth in South Africa: Fresh Evidence from Combined Cointegration Test, Quality & Quantity, 49(2), 785-803. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135014-0023-x

Trade Openness, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Emerging Market Economies: A Panel Causality Analysis

Year 2019, Issue: 31, 1 - 16, 31.12.2019

Abstract

Since the early 1980s, many developing countries have abandoned the closed economy model and adopted the open growth model. The aim of the outward growth model was to “increase the degree of integration of the national economy with the world economy in absolute terms”. It can also be said that it keeps the growth rate of the economy high and permanent, and releases international trade in goods and services and capital flows. The historical experience of developing countries has shown that the new growth model makes the economy more fragile and more dependent on the international conjuncture. This study aims to examine the relationships between trade openness, financial development and economic growth by using data from 2002 to 2016 for 15 emerging market economies. In order to understand the causality relationship between the series, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) panel causality test and Kónya (2006) panel causality tests, which enable obtaining country-specific results, were preferred. According to the Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) panel causality test results, there is no causal relationship between commercial openness, financial development and economic growth in the period considered for selected countries. The Kónya (2006) causality test results in the specific countries of Colombia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Russia and Turkey show that financial development shows that a country’s economic growth causality. According to the Kónya (2006) causality test in Colombia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Russia and Turkey, there is a causality from financial development to economic growth. Other findings suggest that there is no causality between the variables. According to these results, it can be said that economic growth, trade deficit and financial development develop independently of each other.

References

  • Awojobi, O. (2013), Does trade openness and financial liberalization foster growth: an empirical study of greek economy, International Journal of Social Economics, 40 (6), 537-555. https://doi. org/10.1108/03068291311321848
  • Baltagi, Badi H. & Feng, Qu & Kao, Chihwa, 2012. “A Lagrange Multiplier test for cross-sectional dependence in a fixed effects panel data model,” Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 164-177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.04.004
  • Breusch, T. S. & Pagan, A. R. (1980). “The lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics”, The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1):239-253.
  • Chimobi, O. P. (2010), The Causal Relationship among Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Nigeria, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2 (2), 137-147.
  • Gries, T., M. Kraft and D. Meierrieks (2009), Linkages Between Financial Deepening, Trade Openness, and Economic Development: Causality Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa, World Development, 37, (12):1849–1860. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2009.05.008
  • Dünya Bankası (WDI) (2019). World Development Indicators. https://databank.worldbank. org/ source /world-development-indicators (Erişim Tarihi: 09.03.2019)
  • Dumitrescu, E. I. & Hurlin, C. (2012), Testing for Granger Non-Causality in Heterogeneous Panels, Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460.
  • Ehigiamusoe, K. U., and Lean, H. H., (2018), Tripartite Analysis of Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa, Contemporary Economics, 12(2): 189-206
  • Uluslararası Para Fonu (IMF) (2019). Financial Development Index Database, https://data. imf. org/?sk=F8032E80-B36C-43B1-AC26-493C5B1CD33B (Erişim Tarihi: 09.03.2019)
  • Kar, M., Ş. Nazlıoğlu, H. Ağır (2014), Trade Openness, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Turkey: Linear and Nonlinear Causality Analysis, BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar, 8 (1), 63-86.
  • Katırcıoğlu, S. T., N. Kahyalar, H. Benar (2007), Financial Development, Trade and Growth Triangle: The Case of India, International Journal of Social Economics, 34 (9), 586-598
  • Kónya, L. (2006). Exports and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries. Economic Modelling, 23(6):978–992. DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2006.04.008
  • Levine, R. (2005). Finance and growth: theory and evidence. In P. Aghion & S. N. Durlauf (Eds.), Handbook of economic growth (pp.865-934.ss.), Volume I, Part A Amsterdam, Holland.: Elsevier.
  • Menyah, Y., Ş. Nazlioglu, K. Wolde-Rufael (2014), Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in African Countries: New Insights from A Panel Causality Approach, Economic Modelling, 37, 386-394. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.11.044
  • MSCI (2019). MSCI Emerging Markets Index, https://www.msci.com/emerging-markets (Erişim Tarihi: 12.03.2019)
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004), General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, University of Cambridge, Working Paper, CWPE 0435
  • Pesaran, M.H. ve Yamagata, T. (2008), “Testing Slope Homogenity in Large Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
  • Rani, R., N. Kumar (2018), Panel Data Analysis of Financial Development, Trade Openness, and Economic Growth: Evidence from BRICS Countries, Emerging Economy Studies, 4(1) 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1177/2394901518767023
  • Sahay, R., Cihak, M., N’Diaye, P., Barajas, A., Ayala Pena, D., Bi, R., ….. Yousefi, R. (2015). Rethinking financial deepening: stability and growth in emerging markets. staff discussion notes, 15(8), 1. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498312615.006
  • Sönmez, F.E. and Sağlam, Y. (2018), Finansal Gelişme ve Ticari Açıklık ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki ilişki: Avrupa Dönüşüm ekonomileri Örneği, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 18 (4), 59-72
  • Smith, L. V., Leybourne, S., Kim, Tae-Hwan, ve Newbold, P. (2004), “More Powerful Panel Data Unit Root Tests with an Application to Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19, 147-170
  • Yücel, F. (2009), Causal relationships between financial development, trade openness and economic growth: the case of Turkey”, Journal of Social Sciences, 5 (1), 33-42
  • Polat, A., Shahbaz, M., Rehman, I. U., & Satti, S. L. (2014). Revisiting Linkages Between Financial Development, Trade Openness And Economic Growth in South Africa: Fresh Evidence from Combined Cointegration Test, Quality & Quantity, 49(2), 785-803. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135014-0023-x
There are 23 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Mehmet Zeki Ak 0000-0003-1271-920X

Veysel İnal 0000-0002-1143-4184

Publication Date December 31, 2019
Submission Date November 26, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019 Issue: 31

Cite

APA Ak, M. Z., & İnal, V. (2019). Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomilerinde Ticari Açıklık, Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Bir Panel Nedensellik Analizi. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics(31), 1-16.