AB Ülkelerinin Yakınsaması: Suradf ve Surkss Birim Kök Testi

Year 2019, Issue: 31, 63 - 75, 31.12.2019

Gökhan Konat , Mustafa Gökçe Fatma Kızılkaya

Abstract

Yakınsama hipotezinin temeli Solow (1956)’a dayanmaktadır. Neo klasik büyüme teorisi yaklaşımları içerisinde yer alan bu hipoteze göre az gelişmiş ülkelerin gelirleri, bir süre sonra gelişmiş ülkelerin seviyesine ulaşacaktır. Az gelişmiş ülkelerin gelirlerinin, gelişmiş ülkelerin gelirlerine yakınsaması hipotezi literatürde sıklıkla sınanan bir hipotezdir. Günümüzdeki büyüme modellerinin çoğu doğrudan ya da dolaylı olarak Solow modelidir. Her ne kadar basit bir model olsa da, Solow modelinin birçok avantajı vardır. Ayrıca büyüme modellerinin çoğu doğrudan ya da dolaylı olarak Solow modeline dayanmaktadır. Literatürde sınanan birden fazla yakınsama türü vardır. Başlangıçta yakınsama yatay kesit regresyon analizine dayalı olarak test edilmiştir. Bu yöntemin eksiklikleri zaman serisi tekniğini temel alan analizlere yöneltmiştir. Yakınsama hipotezinin farklı türleri ekonometrik olarak sınanabilmektedir. Çalışmada AB üyesi ülkelerin 1960-2018 dönemini kapsayan yıllık gelir serilerinin yakınsaması incelenmiştir. Bu çalışmada yakınsama türlerinden biri olan stokastik yakınsama hipotezi SUR modellerine dayanan panel birim kök testleri ile sınanmıştır. Bu panel birim kök testleri yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan ve panelin her birimi için ayrı ayrı yorum yapılmasına imkân veren ikinci nesil panel birim kök testleridir. Bu çalışmada AB üyesi ülkelerin AB’nin grup ortalamasına yakınsadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Keywords

Yakınsama, panel birim kök, SURADF, SURKSS

Supporting Institution

Yazarlar bu çalışma için finansal destek almamışlardır.

Convergence of EU Countries: SURADF and SURKSS Unit Root Test

Abstract

The basis of the convergence hypothesis is based on Solow (1956). According to this hypothesis within the neo-classical growth theory approaches, the income of the less developed countries will reach the level of developed countries after a while. The hypothesis of convergence of incomes of underdeveloped countries to incomes of developed countries is a hypothesis frequently tested in the literature. Most of the current growth models are the Solow model, directly or indirectly. Although it is a simple model, the Solow model has many advantages. Moreover, most of the growth models are, directly or indirectly, based on the Solow model. In this study, the convergence of annual income series of the EU member countries, covering the period of 1960-2018, was examined. In this study, the stochastic convergence hypothesis, one of the convergence types, was tested with panel unit root tests based on SUR models. The SURADF and SURKSS panel unit root tests are second generation panel unit root tests. The SURADF and SURKSS panel unit root tests take into account the cross-sectional dependency, and allow for an explanation of each unit separately. In this study, it was concluded that EU member countries converged to the EU’s group average.

Keywords

Convergence, panel unit root, SURADF, SURKSS

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