The Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) Approach for Determining the Factors Affecting the Achievement of Students with Low Socioeconomic Status

Year 2024, Issue: 40, 1 - 11, 26.06.2024

Derya Topdağ , Ebru Çağlayan Akay

https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2024.40.1254248

Abstract

Analyzing the relationship between academic achievement and socioeconomic background is an important subject in educational research. Even though the percentage of students with low socioeconomic status in Türkiye is higher than the international average, these students’ average mathematics achievement scores can be shown to relatively higher than international average scores. This study aims to identify the variables that influence the mathematics achievement of students with low socioeconomic status in Türkiye using the small sample size and modeling flexibility provided by the Bayesian approach. Data were employed for this purpose from the 2019 International Survey of Mathematics and Science Trends (TIMSS) 8th-grade mathematics assessment. The study uses the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach to determine which variables should be included in the model when working with large-scale educational data and a large number of independent variables. According to the Bayesian model averaging results, the number of books at home, students’ academic expectations, sense of belonging to school, attitudes toward mathematics, absenteeism, and exposure to bullying are the strongest predictors of mathematics achievement. The findings from this study show the mathematics failure of students with low socioeconomic status to be closely associated with negative attitudes toward school and mathematics courses, exposure to bullying, and greater frequency of homework. Furthermore, the study has determined mother’s educational level to have no influence on the mathematics achievement of students with low socioeconomic status, while gender does have an effect in terms of father’s education level. The results show students with low socioeconomic status to be impacted by the components of inequalities inside and outside of school. Consequently, education policies are expected to provide equitable opportunities for students with low socioeconomic status by taking socioeconomic inequalities into account.

Keywords

Bayesian model averaging, BMA, TIMSS, mathematics achievement, low socioeconomic status

Düşük Sosyoekonomik Statüye Sahip Öğrencilerin Başarısını Etkileyen Faktörlerin Belirlenmesi: Bayesyen Model Ortalama Yaklaşımı

Abstract

Akademik başarı ve sosyoekonomik arka plan arasındaki ilişkinin analizi, eğitim araştırmalarında önemli konulardan biridir. Türkiye’de düşük sosyoekonomik statüye sahip öğrenci yüzdesinin uluslararası ortalamanın üstünde olmasına rağmen, bu öğrencilerin özellikle ortalama matematik başarı puanlarının uluslararası ortalama puanına göre nispeten yüksek olduğu görülmektedir. Bu makalenin amacı, Türkiye’de düşük sosyoekonomik statüye sahip öğrencilerin matematik başarısını etkileyen değişkenleri Bayesyen yaklaşımın sunduğu küçük örneklem boyutu ve modelleme esnekliğinden yararlanarak belirlemektir. Çalışmanın verileri Uluslararası Matematik ve Fen Eğilimleri Araştırması (TIMSS) 2019 sekizinci sınıf matematik değerlendirmesinden elde edilmiştir. Çalışmada, çok sayıda bağımsız değişken içeren büyük ölçekli eğitim verileriyle çalışırken hangi değişkenlerin modele dahil edilmesi gerektiğini belirlemek için Bayesyen model ortalama (BMA) yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Bayesyen model ortalama sonuçlarına göre, evdeki kitap sayısı, öğrencinin akademik beklentisi, okula ait hissetme, matematiğe karşı tutum, devamsızlık ve zorbalığa maruz kalma, matematik performansının en önemli açıklayıcıları olarak tespit edilmiştir. Düşük sosyoekonomik statüye sahip öğrencilerin matematik başarısızlığının okula ve matematik dersine karşı olumsuz tutumlar, zorbalığa maruz kalma ve artan ödev sıklığı ile yakından ilişkili olduğu belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca düşük sosyoekonomik statüye sahip öğrencilerin matematik başarısında annenin eğitim seviyesi ve cinsiyetin etkisi olmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Sonuçlar düşük sosyoekonomik statüye sahip öğrencilerin okul içinde ve okul dışındaki eşitsizlik unsurlarından etkilendiğini göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak, eğitim politikalarının sosyoekonomik eşitsizlikleri dikkate alarak düşük sosyoekonomik statüye sahip öğrenciler için fırsat eşitliği sunması beklenmektedir.

Keywords

Bayesyen Model Ortalama (BMA), TIMSS, Matematik Başarısı, Düşük Sosyoekonomik Statü (low-SES)

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