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The Determinants of International Migration in the Context of Terrorist Attacks: A Panel Data Analysis

Year 2024, Issue: 40, 110 - 120, 26.06.2024
https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2024.40.1383347

Abstract

In this study, which was developed to examine the determinants of international migration, the validity of the Neo – Classical migration approach, which claims that the main determinant of the migration decision is economic factors, was tested and the relations between the variables were investigated taking into account various economic indicators as well as terrorist incidents. The study was developed within the scope of the 20 countries that receive the most immigrants in the world, and the migration movements from the countries that give the most immigrants to each immigrant receiving country were examined with the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator using the five – year data for the period 1995 – 2020 within the framework of the multidimensional panel gravity model. The findings show that the income level in the destination countries negatively affects the migration movements, while the terrorist attacks in the origin countries and the inflation rate of the origin countries affects it positively. In addition, it was determined that the income level and unemployment rate of the origin countries are not statistically significant. In parallel with the findings, it was concluded that the Neo – Classical migration theory is not valid for the countries covered in the research and that the security factor is more important in the migration decision.

References

  • Bijak, J., Kupiszewski, M., & Kicinger, A. (2004). International migration scenarios for 27 European countries (Central European Forum For Migration Research Working Paper No. 4/2004). [Çevrimiçi kaynak] http://www.cefmr.pan.pl/docs/cefmr_wp_2004-04.pdf [Erişim tarihi: 03 Ocak 2023]. google scholar
  • Birleşmiş Milletler (2020). International Migrant Stock 2020 Department of Economic and Social Affairs. [Çevrimiçi kaynak] https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/content/international-migrant-stock [Erişim tarihi: 25 Aralık 2022]. google scholar
  • Birleşmiş Milletler (2022). Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2021. [Çevrimiçi kaynak] https://www.unhcr.org/62a9d1494/global-trends-report-2021 [Erişim tarihi: 04 Ocak 2023]. google scholar
  • Carril-Caccia, F. Paniagua, J., Requena, F. (2021). Asylum migration, borders, and terrorism in a structural gravity model. Politics and Governance, 9(4), 146-158. google scholar
  • CEPII (2022). CEPII Gravity Database. [Çevrimiçi kaynak] http://www.cepii.fr [Erişim tarihi: 20 Aralık 2022]. google scholar
  • Crawford, T. J. (1973). Beliefs about birth control: A consistency theory analysis. Representative Research in Social Psychology, 4(1), 53-65. google scholar
  • Dünya Bankası (2022). Dünya Kalkınma Göstergeleri. [Çevrimiçi kaynak] https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators [Erişim tarihi: 20 Aralık 2022]. google scholar
  • Fitzgerald, J., Leblang, D., & Teets, J. C. (2014). Defying the law of gravity: The political economy of international migration. World Politics, 66(3), 406-445. google scholar
  • Gygli, S., Haelg, F., Potrafke, N., & Sturm, J.-E. (2019). The KOF Globalisation Index - revisited. The Review of International Organizations, 14(3), 543-574. google scholar
  • Hagen-Zanker, J. (2008). Why do people migrate? A review of the theoretical literature (Maastrcht Graduate School of Governance Working Paper No. 2008/WP002). [Çevrimiçi kaynak] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1105657 [Erişim tarihi: 03 Ocak 2023]. google scholar
  • Harris, J. R., & Todaro, M. P. (1970). Migration, Unemployment and Development: A Two-Sector Analysis. The American Economic Review, 60(1), 126-142. google scholar
  • Irani, F., & Noruzi, M. R. (2011). Globalization and Challenges; What are the globalization’s contemporary issues. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 1(6), 216-218. google scholar
  • Karemera, D., Oguledo, V. I., & Davis, B. (2000). A gravity model analysis of international migration to North America. Applied economics, 32(13), 1745-1755. google scholar
  • Kikkawa, A., Gaspar, R. E., & Park, C. Y. (2019). International Migration in Asia and the Pacific-Determinants and Role of Economic Integration (Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper Series No. 592). [Çevrimiçi kaynak] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3590229 [Erişim tarihi: 05 Ocak 2023]. google scholar
  • Kritz, Mary M. and Hania Zlotnik (1992). Global Interactions: Migration systems, processes, and policies. Mary M. Kritz, Lin Lean Lim and Hania Zlotnik (Ed.) International Migration Systems: A Global Approach. Oxford: Clarendon Press. google scholar
  • International Migration Systems: A Global Approach. Oxford: Clarendon Press Kwilinski, A., Lyulyov, O., Pimonenko, T., Dzwigol, H., Abazov, R., & Pudryk, D. (2022). International migration drivers: Economic, environmental, social, and political effects. Sustainability, 14(11), 6413. google scholar
  • Lee, E. S. (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, 3, 47-57. google scholar
  • Lewer, J. J., & Van den Berg, H. (2008). A gravity model of immigration. Economics letters, 99(1), 164-167. google scholar
  • Lewis, W. A. (1954). Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour. The Manchester School, 22(2), 139-191. google scholar
  • Mayda, A. M. (2022). International migration: A panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows. Global Labour in Distress, Volume I: Globalization, Technology and Labour Resilience. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 33-65. google scholar
  • McAuliffe, M., & Triandafyllidou, A. (2021). World Migration Report 2022. Geneva: International Organization for Migration google scholar
  • Mohamed, H., Jebli, M. B., & Youssef, S. B. (2019). Renewable and fossil energy, terrorism, economic growth, and trade: Evidence from France. google scholar
  • Naude, W. (2010). The determinants of migration from Sub-Saharan African countries. Journal ofAfrican Economies, 19(3), 330-356. google scholar
  • Piore, M. J. (1979). Birds of passage: Migrant labor and industrial societies (Vol. 10). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. google scholar
  • Ranis, G., & Fei, J. C. (1961). A theory of economic development. The American Economic Review, 51(4), 533-565. google scholar
  • Ravenstein, E. G. (1885). The laws of migration. Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 48(2), 167-235. google scholar
  • Silva, J. S., & Tenreyro, S. (2006). The log of gravity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(4), 641-658. google scholar
  • Sironi, A., Bauloz, C., & Emmanuel, M. (2019). Glossary on migration. Geneva: International Organization for Migration. google scholar
  • START (2022). The Global Terrorism Database (GTD). National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). [Çevrimiçi kaynak] https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd [Erişim tarihi: 22 Aralık 2022]. google scholar
  • Tinbergen, J. (1962). An Analysis of World Trade Flows. J. Tinbergen (Ed.), Shaping the world economy; suggestions for an international economic policy. New York: The Twentieth Century Fund, 262-293. google scholar
  • Wallerstein, I. (1974). The Modern World-System I- Capitalist Agriculture and the Origins of the European World-Economy in the Sixteenth Century, With a New Prologue. New York: Academic Press. google scholar
  • Westerlund, J., & Wilhelmsson, F. (2011). Estimating the gravity model without gravity using panel data. Applied Economics, 43(6), 641-649. google scholar
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2016). Panel Veri Ekonometrisi Stata Uygulamalı, 3. Baskı. İstanbul: Beta Basım Yayım. google scholar
  • Zelinsky, W. (1971). The hypothesis of the mobility transition. Geographical review, 61(2), 219-249. google scholar
  • Zolberg, A. R. (1981). 1: International Migrations in Political Perspective. International Migration Review, 15(1_suppl), 3-27 google scholar

Terörist Faaliyetler Bağlamında Uluslararası Göçün Belirleyicileri: Panel Veri Analizi

Year 2024, Issue: 40, 110 - 120, 26.06.2024
https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2024.40.1383347

Abstract

Uluslararası göçün belirleyicilerini incelemeye yönelik geliştirilen bu çalışmada, göç kararının temel belirleyicisinin ekonomik faktörler olduğunu ileri süren Neo – Klasik göç yaklaşımının geçerliliği sınanmış ve çeşitli ekonomik göstergeler ile birlikte terör olayları da göz önünde bulundurularak değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler araştırılmıştır. Çalışma, dünyada en çok göç alan 20 ülke kapsamında geliştirilmiş ve her bir göç alan ülkeye en çok göç veren ülkelerden göç hareketleri çok boyutlu panel çekim modeli çerçevesinde 1995 – 2020 dönemi beş yıllık verileri kullanılarak Poisson Pseudo En Çok Olabilirlik Tahmincisi ile incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, göç alan ülkelerdeki gelir düzeyinin göç hareketlerini negatif yönde, göç veren ülkelerde gerçekleşen terör olaylarının ve göç veren ülkelerin enflasyon oranının uluslararası göç hareketlerini pozitif yönde etkilediğini göstermiştir. Göç veren ülkelerin gelir düzeyinin ve işsizlik oranının ise istatistiksel olarak etkili olmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular paralelinde araştırma kapsamında ele alınan ülkeler için Neo – Klasik göç teorisinin geçerli olmadığı, güvenlik faktörünün göç kararında daha etkili olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

References

  • Bijak, J., Kupiszewski, M., & Kicinger, A. (2004). International migration scenarios for 27 European countries (Central European Forum For Migration Research Working Paper No. 4/2004). [Çevrimiçi kaynak] http://www.cefmr.pan.pl/docs/cefmr_wp_2004-04.pdf [Erişim tarihi: 03 Ocak 2023]. google scholar
  • Birleşmiş Milletler (2020). International Migrant Stock 2020 Department of Economic and Social Affairs. [Çevrimiçi kaynak] https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/content/international-migrant-stock [Erişim tarihi: 25 Aralık 2022]. google scholar
  • Birleşmiş Milletler (2022). Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2021. [Çevrimiçi kaynak] https://www.unhcr.org/62a9d1494/global-trends-report-2021 [Erişim tarihi: 04 Ocak 2023]. google scholar
  • Carril-Caccia, F. Paniagua, J., Requena, F. (2021). Asylum migration, borders, and terrorism in a structural gravity model. Politics and Governance, 9(4), 146-158. google scholar
  • CEPII (2022). CEPII Gravity Database. [Çevrimiçi kaynak] http://www.cepii.fr [Erişim tarihi: 20 Aralık 2022]. google scholar
  • Crawford, T. J. (1973). Beliefs about birth control: A consistency theory analysis. Representative Research in Social Psychology, 4(1), 53-65. google scholar
  • Dünya Bankası (2022). Dünya Kalkınma Göstergeleri. [Çevrimiçi kaynak] https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators [Erişim tarihi: 20 Aralık 2022]. google scholar
  • Fitzgerald, J., Leblang, D., & Teets, J. C. (2014). Defying the law of gravity: The political economy of international migration. World Politics, 66(3), 406-445. google scholar
  • Gygli, S., Haelg, F., Potrafke, N., & Sturm, J.-E. (2019). The KOF Globalisation Index - revisited. The Review of International Organizations, 14(3), 543-574. google scholar
  • Hagen-Zanker, J. (2008). Why do people migrate? A review of the theoretical literature (Maastrcht Graduate School of Governance Working Paper No. 2008/WP002). [Çevrimiçi kaynak] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1105657 [Erişim tarihi: 03 Ocak 2023]. google scholar
  • Harris, J. R., & Todaro, M. P. (1970). Migration, Unemployment and Development: A Two-Sector Analysis. The American Economic Review, 60(1), 126-142. google scholar
  • Irani, F., & Noruzi, M. R. (2011). Globalization and Challenges; What are the globalization’s contemporary issues. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 1(6), 216-218. google scholar
  • Karemera, D., Oguledo, V. I., & Davis, B. (2000). A gravity model analysis of international migration to North America. Applied economics, 32(13), 1745-1755. google scholar
  • Kikkawa, A., Gaspar, R. E., & Park, C. Y. (2019). International Migration in Asia and the Pacific-Determinants and Role of Economic Integration (Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper Series No. 592). [Çevrimiçi kaynak] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3590229 [Erişim tarihi: 05 Ocak 2023]. google scholar
  • Kritz, Mary M. and Hania Zlotnik (1992). Global Interactions: Migration systems, processes, and policies. Mary M. Kritz, Lin Lean Lim and Hania Zlotnik (Ed.) International Migration Systems: A Global Approach. Oxford: Clarendon Press. google scholar
  • International Migration Systems: A Global Approach. Oxford: Clarendon Press Kwilinski, A., Lyulyov, O., Pimonenko, T., Dzwigol, H., Abazov, R., & Pudryk, D. (2022). International migration drivers: Economic, environmental, social, and political effects. Sustainability, 14(11), 6413. google scholar
  • Lee, E. S. (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, 3, 47-57. google scholar
  • Lewer, J. J., & Van den Berg, H. (2008). A gravity model of immigration. Economics letters, 99(1), 164-167. google scholar
  • Lewis, W. A. (1954). Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour. The Manchester School, 22(2), 139-191. google scholar
  • Mayda, A. M. (2022). International migration: A panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows. Global Labour in Distress, Volume I: Globalization, Technology and Labour Resilience. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 33-65. google scholar
  • McAuliffe, M., & Triandafyllidou, A. (2021). World Migration Report 2022. Geneva: International Organization for Migration google scholar
  • Mohamed, H., Jebli, M. B., & Youssef, S. B. (2019). Renewable and fossil energy, terrorism, economic growth, and trade: Evidence from France. google scholar
  • Naude, W. (2010). The determinants of migration from Sub-Saharan African countries. Journal ofAfrican Economies, 19(3), 330-356. google scholar
  • Piore, M. J. (1979). Birds of passage: Migrant labor and industrial societies (Vol. 10). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. google scholar
  • Ranis, G., & Fei, J. C. (1961). A theory of economic development. The American Economic Review, 51(4), 533-565. google scholar
  • Ravenstein, E. G. (1885). The laws of migration. Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 48(2), 167-235. google scholar
  • Silva, J. S., & Tenreyro, S. (2006). The log of gravity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(4), 641-658. google scholar
  • Sironi, A., Bauloz, C., & Emmanuel, M. (2019). Glossary on migration. Geneva: International Organization for Migration. google scholar
  • START (2022). The Global Terrorism Database (GTD). National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). [Çevrimiçi kaynak] https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd [Erişim tarihi: 22 Aralık 2022]. google scholar
  • Tinbergen, J. (1962). An Analysis of World Trade Flows. J. Tinbergen (Ed.), Shaping the world economy; suggestions for an international economic policy. New York: The Twentieth Century Fund, 262-293. google scholar
  • Wallerstein, I. (1974). The Modern World-System I- Capitalist Agriculture and the Origins of the European World-Economy in the Sixteenth Century, With a New Prologue. New York: Academic Press. google scholar
  • Westerlund, J., & Wilhelmsson, F. (2011). Estimating the gravity model without gravity using panel data. Applied Economics, 43(6), 641-649. google scholar
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2016). Panel Veri Ekonometrisi Stata Uygulamalı, 3. Baskı. İstanbul: Beta Basım Yayım. google scholar
  • Zelinsky, W. (1971). The hypothesis of the mobility transition. Geographical review, 61(2), 219-249. google scholar
  • Zolberg, A. R. (1981). 1: International Migrations in Political Perspective. International Migration Review, 15(1_suppl), 3-27 google scholar
There are 35 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Panel Data Analysis, Applied Macroeconometrics
Journal Section RESEARCH ARTICLE
Authors

Bengü Tosun 0000-0002-5969-4612

Murat Eren 0000-0002-3855-5429

Publication Date June 26, 2024
Submission Date October 30, 2023
Acceptance Date November 6, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2024 Issue: 40

Cite

APA Tosun, B., & Eren, M. (2024). Terörist Faaliyetler Bağlamında Uluslararası Göçün Belirleyicileri: Panel Veri Analizi. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics(40), 110-120. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2024.40.1383347