Empirical effects of short-term export bans: The case of rice sectors in India, Thailand and Vietnam

Year 2025, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 119 - 140

Mazen Diwani

Abstract

India's recent ban on non-basmati rice exports aims to lower domestic rice prices, which have increased by more than 30% since October 2022. However, this move might lead to a decline in rice export numbers, potentially increasing global prices, and worsening food insecurity. This study examines the immediate effects of India's recent ban on rice exports on top rice-producing economies and countries with a share of imported rice from India exceeding 60%. Four policy scenarios were designed, with scenarios 1 and 2 varying the export ban on rice and scenarios 3 and 4 focusing on the reduction in rice crop productivity due to El Niño. The macroeconomic ramifications of these scenarios include a decline in real GDP. Real consumption expenditure is expected to decline in all economies. Sectoral effects show that rice is the most negatively affected crop in Vietnam and India, as farmers redirect resources to other crops.

Keywords

Export Ban , Welfare Effects , Macroeconomic Effects , GTAP Model , Sectoral Effects , Indian Economy

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