How Should We Interpret the Outcome of the June 2015 Parliamentary Election in Turkey?

Year 2014, Volume: 3 Issue: 3, 1 - 22, 01.09.2014

Ali T. Akarca

Abstract

The outcome of the June 7, 2015 parliamentary election in Turkey is analyzed. In particular, the causes of the drop in the vote share of the ruling Justice and Development Party are identified, and their effects are measured with the help of a vote equation. This model is fitted to data covering the 1951-2014 period and considers the credit or blame the government gets due to economic conditions, the advantages and disadvantages of incumbency, political inertia, and realignments. It also takes into account strategic voting, which is caused by election thresholds and the electorate’s desire to balance the power of the government. A comparison of the prediction obtained from this equation with the actual realization is utilized to estimate the impact of the decision by the Peoples’ Democratic Party to participate in the election officially, rather than through independent candidates.

Keywords

Voter behavior, economic voting, strategic voting, election forecasting, AKP, Turkey.

Thanks

An earlier version of this paper was presented at the following events: (1) The Turkish Economic Association (TEA) Workshop: Ekonomi ve Genel Seçim (The Economy and General Election), held at Yıldız Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey, 28 May 2015; (2) The Foundation for Political, Economic, and Social Research (SETA) Conference: Ekonomik Veriler Isığında 7 Haziran Seçim Sonuçlarına Dair Öngörüler (Predictions about the June 7 Election Outcome, in Light of Economic Data), held at SETA, Istanbul, Turkey, 30 May 2015; and (3) The TEA Panel Discussion: 7 Haziran Seçim Sonuçları ve Ekonomi (Outcome of the June 7 Election and the Economy), held at TEA, Ankara, Turkey, 15 June 2015. I have benefited greatly from the valuable suggestions and comments provided by the audiences at these meetings.

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